Prediction Changed
12:33 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Haliburton-Victoria-Brock (98.5%)
Laurie Scott
Peterborough (1%)
Jeff Leal
Parry Sound-Muskoka (0.5%)
Norm Miller

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 A Robinson
PC Laurie Scott has huge name recognition. She has just been endorsed by The Peterborough This Week, Durham Metroland Paper and Kawartha Lakes This Week.
07 10 03 The Advisor
The interesting thing about reading what everyone else has had to say is that it offers an interesting perspective. Unfortunately that perspective is not necessarily reflective of what is actually happening in the riding.
There should be little doubt that John Tory has done himself in with the faith-based funding, and Laurie's insistence, up until this week, that she supports the platform and the leader has not helped her in the least.
This may unquestionably be a blue riding - that is not up for debate, the facts speak for themselves, and while I agree that Rick Johnson was brought in too late to mount a truly effective campaign, I suspect his arrogance and one-issue campaign is reason enough to parachute him into the riding so to speak.
Seniors and cottagers or not, what should not be underestimated is clearly a few things: A bridge has been closed in Bobcaygeon, the City got screwed out of Best Start, roads are deteriorating rapidly, broadband is a distant hope, and Laurie Scott - no matter how great she is at Sunday Strawberry Socials - is not getting the job done in the riding. And how could she? She is a Conservative in a Liberal government and riding residents are paying the price.
Notwithstanding the fact that we have seen the Premier come to Lindsay, we have seen the Education Minister and now Transportation Minister come to Lindsay, where is John Tory? If this riding is such a stronghold how come John Tory isn't swinging by to say thanks for the support? John Tory will be visiting Peterborough again Thursday, and Cobourg - is a stop in Lindsay or anywhere in the riding really that difficult? Doesn't Laurie deserve that from her leader? Apparently not.
The bottom line is residents in this riding want the same treatment other ridings receive where Liberal candidates win, and I think there will be more than a few people surprised come election night.
At this point you could flip a coin between the Liberals and Conservatives, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see Freedom Party candidate Bill Denby take a few more votes than people think. My prediction right now: Rick Johnson with a margin of victory of less than 100 votes.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
In the 1997 federal election, both the PC Party and the Reform Party saw this riding as winnable. This is a right-wing riding, and having anything but a right-wing party win this riding means that they need to have one darn good excuse. Federally In 1997 there was a good excuse – a divided right. No such thing exists provincially. Even the FCP+FP vote wont top 5% here. The Liberals would have to close a 15 point gap in order to win here. I just don’t see the Liberals as even being within striking range.
07 09 20 A.S.
What is it about high-profile education activists and this seat? Last time, it was Earl Manners of the NDP who got all the hoopla (and he didn't have a chance in blazes, though at least he eked out his deposit). And last time was also the best time for anything other than PC to have a hope; after all, HKLB was an open seat through Chris Hodgson's retirement. But the Tories snuffed out such hopes by running someone quite literally born to serve the riding: Laurie Scott. And she was one of the handful of '03 Tories with a solid over-10-point margins--not bad for a PC rookie (one of only two elected that year). If she could survive '03, she'll survive '07, safely.
07 09 12 mb
Laurie Scott will do very well here again. This riding hasn't voted any other way since the Dennis Drainville NDP aberration. Not again. It's a very conservative riding and has a lot of seniors. The only growth in population appears to be in retirees and cottagers.
07 09 06 RyanOntario
Going to question if education is really the top issue in this mostly rural riding with of alot of seniors .
the issues of agriculture, rural economic development and health care are likely more important to voters here .
either way Laurie Scott is well liked in this riding and well known her father was a former mp , Rick Johnson hasn't had enough time to prepare his campaign as well.
07 09 05 Tory Blue
Ah Seamus,you can only dream.Strategically Johnston was a good move by the Libs, as it will keep Scott in the riding more, however he has only one issue to tals about, & as much as admitted that at a BBQ yesterday. I do however have concerns provincially, given the nasty quasi racist undertones of the Libs comments on this valid proposal. Scott to win with 50%+
07 09 03 seamus
Slow down a little. With Rick Johnson, the until-recently head of the Ontario Public School Board Association, this campaign becomes competitive. Johnson was elected in this riding as a trustee, lives there and will likely make the public funding of religious schools the central issue in the local campaign. This is a coup for the Liberals. It may not be enough to beat Scott, BUT it is too early to see if the issue will have negative or positive resonance for the Conservatives locally and provincially.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
One of the bluest ridings in Ontario. Laurie Scott will likely win this with over 50%.
07 04 27 College Kid
In this riding, with 6 months to go in this election, only one party has an established candidate (Currently no party, federal or provincial has a candidate ready other than the conservative incumbents). Laurie Scott of the Conservatives, the incumbent MPP, has given a solid performance in this riding, with very few people against her. In a riding where it is very difficult to unseat the incumbent, expect another Conservative majority sweep in this riding, especially since Ms. Scott's opposition performance may warrant a cabinet seat in a potential conservative government.
Predictions: (Con 52%, LIB 28%, NDP 12%, GRN & others 8%)
07 04 26 Tory Blue
This riding will remain Tory in a landslide! Laurie Scott won with 47% of the vote in 2003; expect that to rise to the nid-50's in October. Neither the grits nor the dippers even have a candidate nominated, as they see it as a lost cause. Scott will likely spend a lot of time during the campaign, helping Tory candidates elsewhere. Here she is ?home & cooled out?.

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