Prediction Changed
8:18 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke North
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Etobicoke North (100%)
Shafiq Qaadri

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 02 Observer
It is, perhaps, a sign of the times that ethnic minorities are better adept at mobilizing their party members to support nominees from their communities and converting them into candidates. Parties look at positioning the most popular nominee as their candidate rather than differentiating on the basis of ethnicity. The four Muslim candidates must have done a remarkable job at gathering the support they needed to become candidates for the PC, NDP and Green Party along with the incumbent Liberal. It has more to do with the nonchalance of ‘majority’ ethnicities (who ought to take a more proactive approach to being represented in government) rather than with religion.
07 09 30 MH
The Liberals should hold this with relative ease. Mr. Qaadri may not be universally admired, but on the basis of the polls taken in the Toronto area he is safe unless some political earthquake occurs during the next ten days. Barring such an earthquake, we can colour this one red.
07 09 27 malik
MAny in the ridding are disgusted on the abusive name calling that the current Liberal MPP used to a fellow female colleague MPP when he called her that she was having hot flashes and these residents are wondering what the current MPP was thinking when he was using such an abusive term to a fellow female colleague in one of our respected houses which is The Queens Park. High voter turnout on the advance polls who voted for the PC party in this ridding shows clearly that this riding will go for the PC party candidate Mohamed Kassim.
07 09 18 Nabil
The PC's are bound to win this riding. Qaadri has been completely ineffective in this riding, and the fact that he works part-time as a medical doctor, assured the residents that he will only be an MPP part-time too. The PC's have gain credibility with the faith based schools issue in a riding that is largely immigrant based.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
Transit issues are actually pushing this riding to the left, as odd as it sounds. Rents in this area of Toronto are low, mostly because this riding is father from Rapid Transit then any other in the city. That attracts those with the least money, and those people tend to vote NDP and Liberal. Until that dynamic changes, this part of Etobicoke will continue to vote Liberal.
07 09 03 Rebel
I actually think that the parties have over-reacted to the Muslim minority in the riding which remains significant but just a minority. The previous PC member, John Hastings, won in 1995 and 1999 by carrying large majorities in the riding's middle class single family home areas (Thistletown and West Humber for example). It remains a remarkably complex riding by income, housing type and ethnicity which belies the emphasis that all three parties are playing to the Muslim vote. I think the riding will be Liberal by default, until (or if) the PCs are ever able to break back into the city. Tory took the riding in his mayoral run but I don't see the PCs getting much more than 25-30% this time.
07 08 16 A.S.
It *was* a belwether. However, demographics and the scale of Qaadri's victory indicates that Etobicoke North's graduation into provincial Liberal rubber-stampdom was long overdue (and perhaps previously dampered by Ed Philip's lingering NDP presence). Right now, Qaadri looks pretty unassailable even with an uneven performance in caucus (think of the ?hot flash? gaffe); at most, Tory and NDP'll likely cancel each other out--and if all three are of Muslim background (wasn't something similar the case in '03?), here's my usual advice: watch whatever any minor-party/independent candidates with ?Euro-American stock? surnames score...
07 08 11 seamus
Too early to say. This riding is a bellweather riding of late, going with the governing party every election since 1990. All 3 major parties have Muslim candidates - which is historic and politically significant. I wouldn't count out any of the 3 parties picking this one up. All 3 candidates have impressive credentials and will have the necessary cross-cultural reach. Will be interesting if local Councillor Suzan Hall gets involved actively or not.
07 07 06 Etobian
Etobicoke North is surely a Liberal seat not because of any charisma of the incumbent Liberal MPP, but mostly because of the failure of PC and NDP to engage the ethnic communities in this riding and find a good candidate. Both, PC and NDP's candidates from this riding are the ones who could not even get a nomination in the ridings of their choice. PC's candidate contested for Liberal's nomination in federal elections from Etobicke Centre and the NDP's candidate sought nomination from Parkdale and lost. Now they are trying their luck in Etobicoke North but I don't see any prospects of their success. Liberals to keep Etobicke North in 2007...
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Etobicoke is the most Tory friendly part of Toronto, but I highly doubt they will win this one. I could see Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore going PC, but not Etobicoke North, it will stay Liberal.

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