Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 22/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Etobicoke Centre (93.5%)
Hon Donna H. Cansfield
Etobicoke North (6.5%)
Shafiq Qaadri

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Winnie F
I don't know where the PC predictors are coming from. First, Andy Pringle is not a strong candidate. He is a friend of John Tory and a Tory bagman. As far as ordinary voters are concerned SO WHAT?
Second, he does not live in the riding (ok - others like Michael Wilson did not either) but he cannot even find the riding on a map otherwise he would not have located his campaign office in Etobicoke Lakeshore.
Fourth, he is being outsigned.
Fifth, you can talk all you want about income levels in the riding but income is no longer a guarantee of Tory support, especially in Toronto.
07 09 30 MH
A strong PC campaign provincially could have put this into the blue camp. So far, however, that campaign has failed to pick up steam, crippled as it has been by the school funding issue. With the Liberals enjoying a substantial lead in the Toronto area, this seat will stay red. However, if the PCs move up significantly in the polls between now and October 10, this could still fall to them.
07 09 25 RyanOntario
still too close, not actually calling it pc yet . but i think some interesting facts about this riding should be noted .
First this is one of the area's as i understand which largely voted for John Tory during his mayoral bid and it also elects ?conservative city councilors?
Second this seat was pc before Donna Cansfield won it in 03 , and it had been pc for a long time and had a few pc cabinet ministers as well.
it had also been part of the ?blue belt around toronto ? .
Third will note this riding has elected liberal cabinet ministers before most famously Allan Rock federally from 93-04 , so it has voted for other parties than pc but mostly only during federal elections.
07 09 23 Pete B.
Rebel does make a good point although calling it for the PC is hardly objective. While I would give the edge to Cansfield for now, I do feel that this is still TCTC. This is one riding that could quickly and very easily swing to PC with the provincial trend. I would wait for a few more polls after the debate before calling it!
07 09 23 Rebel
I must suggest that the EPP is going out on a limb with this one. This should be one of the last 10 or so predicted rather than two+ weeks before election day.
Demographics suggest that it is an affleunt riding with average family income (circa 2001) at $93,000. It also has the largest number of comfortable seniors in the province of Ontario. It is rather less affected in the demographic changes that have recast much of the 416 and 905 regions.
Now any Liberal winning by 10% last time has to be sweating...the PC gains and Liberal losses since 2003 equal that number. That puts Cansfield on the cutting edge, rather than being re-elected easily.
Cansifeld is a one-term incumbant (her school trustee ward is only a small part of he provincial riding). I truly don't see her as so stunningly remarkable that her presence alone on the ballot will stall the overall provincial trend dead in its tracks.
07 09 09 T Rax
Cansfield has represented the area for years as a trustee and MPP. PC candidate doesn't know the area, doesnt live there and his campaign office is outside the riding. ACM is wrong about this riding. It is not the place for a big-biz friendly candidate like Pringle. More in line with a middle class representative like Cansfield. 43.8% tenants. Median income about $60,000. Just over 1/4 have university degrees. Riding is heavily ethic (about half) and is now safely Liberal. Has not elected PC federally in 19 years. Has not elected a PC provincially since 1999 and that was due to personal popularity of Chris Stockwell.
07 09 05 A.S.
Cansfield is the archetype of the PC-turned-McGuinty-Liberal; in this seat with such a strong PC history, it's as vivid a symbol of the Tories' Toronto shutout as one can wish for--and her solid Cabinet performance comes as a bonus. Therefore, she appears disarmingly/deceptively safe, even though she shouldn't be--after all, the the local Tory campaign sputtered in '03 and they still came within 10 points. But do demo trends favour the Tories? Consider how the Liberals have continued to hold on federally. Maybe it's best to bunch this seat up with '03's Mississauga pickups; that is, whichever way the flow goes, it'll go--and so far, these 905esque seats are the least willing to flow away from the McGuinty status quo it chose last time. So far.
07 09 03 Nick J Boragina
Cansfield is anything but a weak minister, and the party organization in this riding is strong, a former federal PC organizer who spearheaded the merger itself now works for the provincial liberals in this riding, and weather you see that as a negative or a positive, it speaks to the ?party machine? that exists here. I also question the value of getting mississauga busses off of burnamthorpe. First of all the busses still run on burhanthrope today even if they were absent for a time. I also had to check a riding map as Burhanthrope is not fully in the riding, and the part of the road the busses were removed from is only half (north side) in this riding.
07 08 20 GN
I am not sure how anyone can call Cansfield a weak anything. She has been able to have herself elected in Etobicoke for one office or another since 1988. She knows how to win. She has done some really good work in the transportation portfolio.
07 08 19 Rebel
Andrew Pringle is a pretty strong PC candidate in exactly the kind of riding that John Tory should appeal best in as PC Leader. He took the riding heavily in his mayoral run and the PC's current robust position in the polls vis a vis the narrow Liberal margin now against their 2003 results, should see this riding going Blue.
07 08 13 Long Time Resident
Donna Cansfield actually did something when she was in energy. Getting the Missisauga Transist buses off Burnhamthorpe is going to be a real plus for her in this election.
07 08 09 Skiptea
This one should be too close to call. A weak liberal candidate/cabinet minister coupled with a strong provincial Tory campaign will let the PC's retake this riding.
07 07 23 ACM
This affluent riding has no reason whatsoever to re-elect a Liberal. There is a large home-owner and business-owner population here which will shift support over to Andy Pringle and the PC's. Cansfield hasn't done too much for the riding and is too closely associated with Dalton. Will go back to blue.
07 07 05 Angry Ontarian
Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore share some common demographics with the 905 belt. That should place them both in the ?too close to call? column.

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