Prediction Changed
12:33 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (100%)
John Tory

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 20 A.S.
Sorry to sound jaded, but given the political events of the past 10-15 years, it's altogether to be expected that a viable Tory candidate's going to be booed at an all-candidates debate; and defensiveness is no guarantee of defeat, either. (Though yes, the last time this was an open seat in a general election--1987--it elected a Liberal, Mavis Wilson.) I *will* guarantee, though, that the margin will tighten--but only because the '03 margin was so greased out of shape by His Former Premiership (without him, it might have been halved, at least). And the Liberal vote'll surely be a lot higher than in the John Tory byelection--what'd be miraculous is if NDP and Green maintained their respective levels in said byelection, too...
07 09 19 Liberal Supporter
Anyone see last night's all candidates debate? Still convinced the Liberals have no chance? Sylvia Jones was on the defensive and was booed, twice. Does not sound like a shoo-in to me!
07 09 12 Nick J Boragina
If the two most recent PC Leaders saw this seat as so safe, that they chose to run here when they needed a seat, then I don?t think it?s a leap to say that this is indeed a safe PC seat. True Blue Rural, PC win.
07 09 11 living in Caledon
Liberal supporter mentions that Sylvia is not from this riding (according to her website she has lived here for over 20 years). Are you trying to suggest that you must be born in the riding to be able to represent it? If that is all you can find fault with Sylvia it is no wonder Earl backed down!!
07 09 09 RyanOntario
The liberal poster is trying to make an issue out of a none issue, John Tory had always said he would run in a toronto riding in the provincial election and it really makes no difference if its downtown or not.
Other party leaders have ran in one riding so they would have a seat in the legislatue than switched to another before including Jean Chretien and Joe Clark federally.
also the liberals are running there second choice here , Earl Lennox the former warden of Dufferin county decided not to run here i wonder why ?
07 09 09 Liberal Supporter
Fair enough-- Don Valley West is not DOWNTOWN Toronto. Mr. Tory LIVES in downtown Toronto but was not gutsy enough to run against his current MPP, Deputy Premier Smitherman.
07 09 05 King of Kensington
This is bedrock Conservative territory, with or without John Tory. And BTW Don Valley West is certainly not ?downtown Toronto?!
07 09 03 Liberal Supporter
At some point, the residents of Dufferin-Caledon are going to realize that they will get no attention from the PCs, whether the PCs form the government or not, because they are perceived as a ?safe seat?, a ?sure thing?, etc. After being given the honour of representing D-C, John Tory's annoucement on his website that there would be no greater public honour but to represent a riding in downtown Toronto has got to be insulting to this community.
It's one thing to put up with the ?back of the hand? when your riding is getting the leader of the party as they did with Mr. Tory and Mr. Eves. However, Sylvia Jones is not a candidate of that caliber or profile. Yes, she's been in politics for a while. But it has been in the capacity of ?assistant to the assistant?.
I should also mention that she is not actually from the riding. She moved there in the late 1980s.
In contrast, Elizabeth (Betsy) Hall actual policy position (i.e. not just an assistant) in two high profile ministries. Plus, unlike Ms. Jones, she IS TRULY ?home-grown?.
All of these factors, combined with the slight shift in demographics as a result of the boundary changes are, to me at least, indicators that Ms. Jones is by no means assured of the seat.
07 05 09 Observer
If anyone wants to bet on red, I'll take their money. If anything, Tory prospects will improve here with a ‘homegrown’ candidate. Generally speaking this is pretty sterile ground for any other Party to launch a credible challenge.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Tory may not be running here, but this is one of the safest Tory seats in the province, so whoever they run will win in a cakewalk.
07 04 11 Andrew Cox
PC Hold.
1) This is probably the safest seat for the Conservatives in Ontario. In the last general election, one of only two where the PCs received a majority of the vote (the other one being Simcoe-Grey).
2) John Tory chose to run here as a safe landing in a by-election. He was able to marginally improve the PC share of the vote to 56%, despite some Liberal attacks about him being a ?parachute candidate.?
3) The new riding boundaries are only minor changes to the old ones, dropping Erin and Southgate Townships along with part of Wellington North. While these represent a slight shift away from the ridings rural base, and a modest increase in vote in suburban Caledon, the bulk of the riding remains rural or small town.
4) The riding remains overwhelmingly white, protestant, old ?Ontario?; prime country for John Tory and the PC Party.
5) The PC nominee is Sylvia Jones, a long-time PC Party staffer in the local riding office under David Tilson, Ernie Eves and John Tory. While she has little media profile in the riding, she will be a familiar face to local municipal, health, business and community group leaders. She will not push traditional PC voters into staying home or seeking a protest vote.
Conclusion: This is a safe PC seat that will stay PC for at least another two or three elections.
07 03 22 B.O.
John Tory is not running here but in Don Valley West. However, whoever the Tories nominate here will win easily. This is a very Conservative riding both federally and provincially, so the Tory candidate here will have a cakewalk.

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