Prediction Changed
8:19 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Chatham-Kent-Essex (100%)
Pat Hoy

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
The PC Party is having an abysmal showing in the southwest. Part of the reason is these ‘Liberal’ members who might be members of that party, but who are small-c conservative in nature. Hoy will get re-elected, perhaps even with an increased margin.
07 09 18 Initial
Pat Hoy is a lock to win this riding. It is time for some perspective here. In 1995, Hoy defeated an N.D.P. incumbent in his first crack at politics. In 1999, he faced a Tory incumbent and won handily. In 2003, he faced the Mayor of Leamington and cruised to an easy victory with better than 50% of the vote. This time around, he is facing inexperienced opponents with little name recognition. They are no match for Hoy in an election that the Liberals are expected to win. Hoy has delivered for local hospitals, rural schools, including the Ridgetown Agricultural College. He is well-respected throughout the riding. He has hardly been silent over the past four years. Look for him to win for a fourth time in convincing fashion.
07 09 16 A.S.
True enough about Pat Hoy being a Nixon-era throwback--though when it comes to inherent 'reach' among conservative-leaning voters, Hoy's immediate neighbour Steve Peters might be a better case in point than Dave Levac (even if the latter serves in Nixon turf). Yet I wouldn't blithely say this is 'as good as conservative' once Hoy retires, even with current federal representation taken into account--that said, I think it's safe to prognosticate some kind of measurable swing away from Hoy; it was all even foreshadowed by contrarian PC-swinging results in the Leamington/Mersea end of the riding last time. Though will such a swing this time be more on behalf of a re-normalizing NDP vote? And besides, why *would* Pat Hoy specifically merit defeat, now? Reduced or not, it all smells status quo to me...
07 09 14 Mike in Etobicoke Centre
Pat Hoy was and is the last remaining member (maybe Dave Levac too) of the old Bob Nixon agrarian, small c-conservative Liberal. Unfortunately, the leader and the party have long since abandoned this tradition that made them such a powerhouse in rural southwestern Ontario. Name recognition might allow Hoy to hang on here this time (and that is a big maybe), but consider this as good as Conservative once he retires.
07 08 01 JS
This will be too close to call. Hoy has been popular in the past but has been silent over the last 4 yrs. There is considerable grumbling in the farm community and in Leamington. I think the PC Candidate who isn't a star will be able to take the traditional 10 to 14K votes...however, I think the NDP Candidate will be able to win back this riding for the NDP if the current anti-Dalton atmosphere continues in the riding. McGuinty will be the achillies heel in most of SW Ont. If the NDP raises to 22 to 25 % of the vote - the NDP does have a shot of taking back this riding. Who would have thought last November that former NDP MPP Randy Hope would have won the Mayor's seat???
07 05 26 Rural Analyst
Pat Hoy to hold.
A traditionally Liberal riding (that never went PC during Harris!) that has only shifted Conservative federally in the last election due to social issues and rural discontent, Hoy doesn't need to worry about either of those (as he falls on the side of the riding on both, unlike any of the leaders). I can't see anything changing. If another party were to pick it up, it would be the PC's, but that is at least 1 or 2 elections away.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Pat Hoy is quite popular and this is a traditional riding. While it did swing over to the Conservatives federally, much of that is because the Liberals federally were unable to connect with many of their rural supporters, while this has been less of a problem provincially as the Provincial Liberals have generally been more in touch with rural voters than their federal counterparts. In fact one of Van Kesteren's campaign workers also is on Pat Hoy's riding associations, so there are lots of crossover votes here.

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