Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Cambridge (100%)
Gerry Martiniuk

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
The entire waterloo region has been leaning more towards the PC Party this election. Even if the Liberals win a majority, ridings like this should go Tory. Remember too that the Cambridge riding has a large rural element, that will only help the PC Party.
07 09 14 nesooite
Cambridge is a riding that is similar to ones in 905 (ie: suburban and yuppy). Used to be union and NDP country but now more service based economy. Translates to Tory victory
07 09 10 DTC
Not that I think this means that much, but I saw numerous McGarry signs -- maybe as many as twenty -- on front lawns throughout affluent east Galt and Hespeler this past weekend. The campaign didn't officially start until today, and I don't really believe lawn signs are a great indicator, so I don't think Martiniuk needs to worry quite yet. It is interesting though.
07 09 08 A.S.
True, Gerry Martiniuk withstood the McGuinty sweep by a good-by-'03-standards margin, so conventional wisdom (further fueled by past Reform/Alliance strength and current federal Tory incumbency) dictates Cambridge to be safe PC. Yet, one wonders. To a degree, that strength is more the accidental outcome of Cambridge's long-term pattern of strong NDP/weak Liberal--which, in the strategic-voting banner year of 1999, led to the NDP getting the official 'anti-Harris' endorsement. The endorsement flopped; NDP even fell behind the also-ran Liberals, in turn mired the low 20s, over 30 points behind Martiniuk. What's more, '99's Liberal candidate repeated in '03. It was against such dismal (or dismally organized/strategized) opposition that PC held--and still, the vote swung 10+ points in the Grit direction, a lot better than in many constituencies whch the Grits *did* win. And as the NDP's 'old industry' base dies out and suburbanization proceeds apace, the long-term ledger does--should--favour the Liberals (even in '06 federally, a lot of the newest suburbs gave the Grits their best results). It's not that the Liberals will win this time, more that Cambridge is 'normalizing', and henceforth this ought to be seen as more of a Grit/PC marginal (with NDP on the margins) than has hitherto been the case. Or, if there's some real education-funding-fuelled anti-John Tory backlash, it *could* be a Liberal steal. Really. For that reason, I'm bucking conventional wisdom and witholding a prediction...
07 05 05 M. Lunn
While once an NDP riding, this has now become a strong Conservative riding at the provincial level and to a lesser extent at the federal level. If the Tories could hold this in 2003, they will hold this, this time around.

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