Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (85.9%)
Bill Murdoch
Simcoe-Grey (7.2%)
Jim Wilson
Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (6%)
John Tory
Huron-Bruce (0.9%)
Carol Mitchell

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 Joe
Although this is going to stay PC, the Greens are putting up an amazing effort. It looks like they will take a close second but I don't think there is enough of a movement for enough voter movement especially once voters actually get to the polling station and chose to stay with the status quo.
07 10 09 Marc Kobayashi
Mr. Jolley's 12.91% performance in the previous federal election has helped establish that a vote for Green is not considered a wasted vote. In addition, there has been a surge of Green Party support & resources from across Ontario over the long weekend. He is building tremendous momentum, and the feedback from constituents on electing the first Green MPP is very positive.
07 10 09 Michael Trolly
Someone commented that there are two right wing parties contesting this seat, the FCP and a candidate running under a Reform banner. One thing to add here is that the Green candidate has a history of working, as far as I can tell, with church based youth ministries (being the former director of one in Ottawa). Obviously, as a Green, not a religious right type of candidate, but his personal involvement in things of that nature might attract a lot of Christian voters who are disenchanted with the PCs. Jolley seems the sort of candidate likely to have wide appeal, and a lot of crossover support.
The Liberals are expected to win a large majority of the seats; the PC campaign seems to be tanking. Which means that in a tight race like this, there is a good chance of someone coming up the middle. The Conservatives are by no means a shoe in here; in fact, a Green win looks increasingly likely.
07 10 09 brent_thorkelson
the last minute poll shows the green party at 11% and the PC all the way down to 27%. What is even more important is that the voters who earlier in the campaign said they would vote tory who have switched away from the party over the faith schools sillyness are NOT switching to the Liberals but to the NDP and greens as a protest vote. Add this to a locally known popular candidate with 25%+ support out of the starting blocks, and the fact that by now a reasonable portion of the voters have learned that in this riding the Green Candidate is the challenger well ahead of Lib and NDP candidates... well I would not bet a dime on this but it seems to add up as possibly the big shock story of election night.
07 10 08 binriso
I just did a little research on this riding and got quite a surprise to what I thought was a dead-solid PC riding in which the incumbent would win by a massive landslide for sure. This could be the shocker of the election. Although i highly doubt it, it will be really interesting to see what Shane Jolley's numbers are on Oct. 10th. I still think the PC's will probably win by 10-20% but I suppose stranger things have happened.
One more thing, 2 other right-wing candidates are in the race here for the FCP and Reform parties. Although their impact will likely be minimal their votes will come almost unanimously right from the PC's.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
People in Walkerton who are still suffering from the effects of the water disaster there, got out of their sick beds to vote for Wild Bill Murdoch in 2003. Seems like people here think Bill handing out bottles of water and bragging about how he'd never read the Walkerton Inquiry Report have made him a hero.
07 10 07 Charlie C
Too close! oracle poll shows Greens closing and with momentum. half the party was there on the weekend to try and win it for the very popular candidate. Libs in the mix too and NDp may be up from last time. Green vote coming from Libs and Tories unhappy on schools issue. It has turned into a referendum on wild Bill, much disliked by the city folk, tolerated by the farm folk. I know people that would vote Green to get rid of him.
07 10 06 Nick J Boragina
This riding actually does have some green roots. One day, this riding might be a green party stronghold, it might even be one of the first ridings in the province, if not the country, to elect a representative who is not the leader. One day, as for today, it will not be going Green. I don’t doubt they have a strong candidate, and maybe he can finish second, if not, then certainly third. But the gap is just too great for anyone, including the greens, to beat the PC’s.
07 10 06 K
The majority of this riding will vote for Murdoch, he's well known, well liked and very much trusted. Just look around this huge riding; his lawn signs are on private property, not placed on the side of the road by campaign teams. Some will vote for Hicks because they're die-hard liberals, some will vote green because it's the flavor of the day, and some will even vote orange for whatever reason, but when it's time to put an X on the ballot, common sense will win out.
07 10 06 Matt
Greens have it.
Shane Jolley with 27.5%
Everyone else with 72.5%
if Jolley picks up 3.0% from each of the main parties in the remaining few days of the campaign this would mean Shane would be up to 36.5 while Murdoch drops to 33.7%.
Shane was also endorsed by the Owen Sound Times, and if signs are any indication of how the campaign will go for the Greens, they have the riding. On top of that, the GPO promised to put more funds and efforts in to Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound to ensure a victory.
07 10 05
This poll brings into serious doubt the PCs' ability to hold on to this riding. Yes, the area is heavily PC, but a poll showing the Greens strongly competitive, especially one getting this much publicity, will squeeze the Liberal and NDP votes down (as we saw, for example, in the Nova Scotia election, where the Liberals got squeezed because of one bad poll that got a lot of publicity during the campaign). This is therefore by no means a safe PC hold, and I could at least theoretically see Shane Jolley taking it.
07 10 05 Johnny on the spot
Nice spin there but the Sun Times has NEVER supported Murdoch. In fact there is a fued going back years. Last election Bill kicked the Sun Times reporter out of his victory party. Jolly is nothing more than a Sun Times creation with no support to speak of outside the Owen Sound-Meaford area. Just take a drive.
And that poll. It is a Green party poll with no explanation of where it was taken as this is a huge riding and Bill Murdoch owns the non-Owen Sound areas.
Murdoch 42 Hicks 27 Jolly 18 NDP and others 13
07 10 05 The Jackal
The Green party is not going to win no matter who endorses them. They may finish second perhaps but a very distant second. This is Bill Murdoch's riding hands down.
07 10 04 DF
New Oracle poll shows Green candidate Jolley now in second place, from last place, with 28%, compared to incumbent PC Murdoch with 37%, down from 52% in 2003. Jolley also has been officially endorsed by the local newspaper, which has traditionally supported Murdoch.
07 10 04 Dafydd
Bill Murdoch unbeatable - but? But, NDP could pick up thousands of public sector union votes. But, Green Candidate Shane Jolley enjoys virtual sainthood in Owen Sound and Meaford. But, Liberal candidate also articulate, outspoken.
07 09 26 Northerner
Bill Murdoch is a true conservative in a very conservative riding and the fact that he has distanced himself from his Bay Street Red Tory leader will only earn him more votes.
07 09 25 RyanOntario
Well i read the entire article and also the one on Murdoch and funding issue. guess it looks like the normally dull bruce-grey-owen sound riding has gotten more interesting. you have to wonder why those ‘liberals’ have decided to not support their own candidate Selwyn Hicks ?
but did Murdoch save himself by coming out against funding , sometimes rural ridings like the idea of this kind of mpp .
guess the voters will have to figure this one out .
07 09 24 tj
Veteran local Liberal backing Green candidate
07 09 16 Johnny on the spot
Only question here is will Bognor Bill get greater than 50% of the vote or not.
07 09 15 Mount Forester
Bill is personally popular with voters, in the southern part of the riding that I know. He shows up at community events and is well received. Haven't seen anything from the Liberal campaign.. Murdoch will be back to Queen's Park on October 10 to his seat in the back row!
07 09 15 sjs
I spent the morning at the Chatsworth Fair and Jolley, the Green candidate, was working the room and being received surprisingly well. Murdoch, the PC candidate was huddled with Larry Miller, the federal Conservative MP, eating pie and neither seemed to be speaking with anyone. Apparently Murdoch has refused to attend the all candidates meetings because he doesn't want to be ‘abused’ by the voters and/or Jolley. The local media (Owen Sound paper, Meaford radio) have been having a field-day with that. The Liberal and the NDP candidates are not strong plus Jolley has some momentum from his federal run. Though extremely long odds, maybe this could actually be in play if Tory continues to stumble, Murdoch continues to run scared and anyone begins to pay attention to the referendum and starts generally considering the Greens as a viable option?
07 09 05 RyanOntario
Happened to pass thru this riding and its very rural with the exception of owen sound . Doesn't look like the liberal selwyn hicks will do much here as she is originally from toronto.
but did notice one thing was surprised to see the green party had a campaign office open in downtown owen sound , looks like they will be a factor in this race but Bill Murdoch has been the mpp for a while and if he was able to survive the liberal sweep of 03 i don't see this riding as being in play.
07 08 31 A.S.
Bill Murdoch, a provincial PC representing the Walkerton riding--and yet, he survived 2003's Tory rout with virtually the same 19-point margin over the Liberals as in 1999! With that election, Murdoch was affirmed as a true grassroots phenomenon: a sort of indestructable Konservative Kormos. (Making things easier still, Walkerton--generally speaking, a Liberal stronghold even before the water crisis--has now been distributed away.) About the only way he could be ?threatened? now is through an even more dizzying head-to-head of grassroots phenomena: Shane Jolley, who came out of nowhere to earn the best Green result in Canada in '06, is running provincially...
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Easy conservative hold. Murdoch was one of the few Reformers during the Harris era and still easily won. He was one of the few Tories to get over 50% last provincial election, never mind this is a very safe Tory riding both federally and provincially.

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