Prediction Changed
1:04 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Beaches—East York
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Beaches-East York (97.9%)
Michael Prue
Don Valley East (1.9%)
Hon David Caplan
Scarborough Southwest (0.2%)
Lorenzo Berardinetti

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the CFO for the Tom Teahen Campaign.

07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
I think some of the predictors here are confusing the Liberal Party of Canada with the Liberal Party of Ontario. The two, though they might sound the same, are not. There may be some similar issues, for example how to run the economy, who to tax and how much, how to run a government, but there are different issues as well, such as education, and foreign affairs. I wont comment here on how federal voters will vote (I’ve already done that here- ) but provincially this riding is certainly one that the NDP should hold on too.
07 09 25 David
This is a safe NDP seat. A drive through the riding will confirm it. NDP signs everywhere. PC signs almost non existent. In many parts of the riding they are outnumbered by even the Greens. Liberals will finish a distant second. Prue is working hard. NDP literature already received and nothing from either Libs or PC.
07 09 25 Riverdale NDPer
How fascinating that someone self-identifying as an ‘NDP insider’ would slander Marilyn Churley while defending Maria Minna. How equally interesting that they cite unnamed ‘senior players in Layton's leadership campaign’ to do the dirty work.
07 09 21 MH
It would require a major shift away from the NDP to loosen Michael Prue's hold. He should be just as safe as Rosario Marchese in Trinity-Spadina. Any growth in PC strength will come at the expense of the Liberals and constitutes no threat to the NDP. The only thing Mr. Prue has to fear is a panicky anti-Tory vote in favour of the Liberals, and at present there is no sign of that.
07 09 21 NDP insider
This seat should be a solid NDP seat. They are strong in the Beach and Prue is personally popular in East York. Prue hardly needs to campaign, and frankly, he is more concerned about his leadership plan. If NDP doesn?t break 15 seats this time around, Hampton will no doubt resign. In that case, Prue will have to fight Sid Ryan to the East of him and Cherri De Novo to the West, not to mention Andrea Howorth down in Hamilton (who is more credible than the three of them combined). Rather than spending time in the riding, Prue is doing his round helping all the other hopeless candidates so he has IOUs to collect later.
That is also why Prue spends so much time helping Marilyn Churley attacking Maria Minna. While Minna has no say as to how the provincial 'cultural grants' are handed out, there are very logical and strategic reasons for Prue to take on the role of NDP attack dog during 'Collegate'. He needs to get Churley elected to strengthen his leadership capital, and the best way to achieve that is to create division and animosity in the cultural communities, Minna?s power base. What he should realize is that Marilyn does what?s good for Marilyn. The benefit of having her on your leadership campaign may not worth the hassles and maintenance. Just ask the senior players of Layton?s leadership campaign.
07 09 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Every Electionprediction-go-round, in most ridings where there is a popular incumbent, someone always comes along and predicts an upset. Sometimes they are valid, like when the party's popularity is collapsing or the incumbent won by a narrow margin. However many are just plain foolish. Like this last one which says that the Liberals will overthrow Prue. Prue won a majority, not just a plurality, in a year when the Liberals were soaring. Now they are substantially down in the polls and the NDP is up by about 4%. What strange forces of nature are in play that would result in Prue blowing his 10K votes he had over the Liberals last time? Let's stop being silly. When the Liberals are riding as high as they were in 2003, or when Prue and/or Hampton does something out-right stupid, then we'll talk about Liberal upsets. Till then, lets focus on some real races.
07 09 19 M Hauck
Prue is over-confident and the Liberals are gaining ground. In the latest all candidates meeting, Prue spent more time mis-representing the Liberal record, than telling the people what he would do. People have grown weary of this and like what Tom is saying. The Liberals will upset Prue here with the strong support of the federal voters. The Liberals are already very strong in the Beaches area, and soon the East York people will see they have a lot more to gain from a proven track record that has improved their lives, than the empty promises of a former mayor.
07 09 14 Kenneth Yurchuk
Not only a hold, but an increased plurality . Folks cross party lines to support Michael in the East York part of the riding, and the traditional Dipper Vote is still strong in South of the Danforth, in spite of the new development West of Woodbine. 55% + for Prue.
07 09 03 A.S.
Bear this in mind: other than Howie, the only NDP majority result in '03. And Prue is a throwback to the days when NDP/CCF was still viewed as an electable party for thoughtful normal-folk, as commonsensical as Mike Harris pretended to be. (The Layton-Chow-Churley-Tabuns machine is more stigmatized by the NDP-flake stereotype--and none of those figures hit 50% in their last few provincial/federal outings. Not even Layton.) With unspectacular opposition, expect a sleepwalk. (Quiet flux trivia: last time, I noted Prue being the only sitting post-Rae NDP MPP. Now, with byelections, retirements, etc, there are only 4 left reoffering, and only Marchese in Toronto.)
07 06 02 King of Kensington
I have to disagree with Miles here. Maria Minna's victories have nothing to do with her personally, she just wins based on the strength of the Liberal Party in Toronto. Michael Prue, however, enjoys enormous personal popularity. Prue is the former mayor of unhip, working class East York and remains very popular there, which is where the NDP is weakest federally. Federally, Marilyn Churley was only able to win the .trendy. polls in the Beaches. But provincially you have the phenomenon of .Michael Prue Liberals. and the provincial Liberals have pretty much written this seat off.
07 05 09 Observer
Prue would appear to have one of the strongest majorities of an incumbent, and the NDP continues to gain ground strength in this part of Toronto. Expect a 40 point majority.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
With the NDP up in the polls and considering how big a margin they won this last time around, I expect Prue will easily hold this. This riding only goes Liberal federally because Maria Minna is reasonably popular and she is also one of the more left-leaning Liberals.
07 04 15 Andrew Cox
NDP hold.
1) Mike Prue is a high-profile former mayor of East York with a natural base in the north-end of the riding. The south-end ?Beaches? is a traditional NDP stronghold of champagne socialists who drive BMW's and vote like steelworkers. The major groups of New Canadians, Tamil, Sikh and Muslim, have never been galvanized to the weakly organized local provincial Liberals, leaving them as lose fish for the NDP to pick up.
2) Nothing has changed between 2003 and 2007 that tells me this seat has any reason to be dissatisfied with its representative. In fact, the only issue with any play at all was the NDP's opposition to the local Portland power station.
3) The neighbouring Toronto-Danforth voted to keep its NDP stripe in a by-election last year, despite a hard-fought campaign by Liberal Ben Chin.
4) General trends show the NDP going up, not down, so its hard to see this seat changing hands.
Conclusion: NDP Hold.
07 03 22 B.O.
Despite the fact that the riding is still Liberal at the federal level, this riding is a very safe NDP seat at the provincial level. This is mainly because of Michael Prue's personal popularity. There really is not anything that could make Prue lose this seat.

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