Prediction Changed
12:01 PM 28/07/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Confederation of Regions
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic
No Affiliation

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot (82.6%)
Ted McMeekin
Hamilton West (17.4%)
Judy Marsales

2003 Result (redistributed):

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
It was said at one time that this was the most right-wing riding with Hamilton in it’s name. Well, Hamilton might not be in it’s name anymore, but the riding falls within city limits, even if the city is more of a county. Hearing the words right-wing might lead you to believe that we are looking at a PC win here, but that is not the case. Had the PC Party won a majority, this riding may have went PC, but what makes this riding so ‘right-wing’ is not the strength of the Tories but the weakness of the NDP. The PC Party is the challenger to the Liberals here, not the NDP like in the rest of Hamilton. I agree with most of the comments made for a Liberal win, because that’s what we will see on the night of the 10th.
07 10 06 TAN
The previous poster who said ‘Westdale is NDP territory, and this election I have seen more yards with NDP signs than I can ever recall federally or provincially’ is way off-base. From what I've seen, it's been the complete opposite: the Maldonado campaign has fallen far short of matching the visible presence managed by Roy Adams and Gordon Guyatt.
Westdale certainly appeared orange with a vengeance in '03, '04 and '06--one in particular thinks of streets like Haddon North of Sterling that were completely and utterly awash with neon Roy Adams signs in '03. And while--as is generally the case--the NDP's actual election night numbers didn't quite match the fervour of the lawn signs, there's no denying Adams and Guyatt did quite well and won many of the polls.
In any event, the NDP has substantially failed to match that kind of sign war performance this time. Perhaps it's because Maldonado, unlike Mac profs Adams and Guyatt, lacks the same roster of personal connections and intelligentsia pull with the leafy-streeted Annexy set there. Perhaps it's because there's been an ongoing flight of permanent residents and their replacement with McMaster students, who tend not to be the lawn sign types. Perhaps it's because Maldonado's rah-rah class warrior style just isn't going down too well in what is ultimately a wealthy suburban area, creative class pretensions and all.
More worryingly for the NDP, the trends are generally stacked against them in the ballot box department for Fortress Westdale. Perhaps contrary to assumption, Mac students, hailing predominantly from west 905 suburbs, vote pretty solidly Liberal over the NDP (Marsales carried the Mac residences last time out, despite having zero presence on campus and even skipping the McMaster all-candidates debate.) There are more of them than before. And while their turnout will be below average, they have nonetheless pushed out permanent residents who might have voted NDP. It's also a well-educated area in terms of civic awareness, which translates into a much stronger prospect for tactical voting. With the message now sinking in after two go-rounds federally that ADFW, unlike Hamilton West before it, seems locked in as a Grit/Tory swinger for the foreseeable future, there's bound to be a chronic tactical bleed on the NDP's flank. Finally, with this no longer a winnable riding for the dippers, the odds of Westdale voters getting candidates the quality of a Roy Adams or a David Christopherson from the NDP into the future looks bleak, and a series of Maldonado-style professional flag-carriers seems all the more likely.
All this combines to make Westdale a considerably-better bet for McMeekin than Aldershot was. Even with some floating voter Liberal-back-to-Tory slippage across the board throughout the riding--which from the looks of things in the last week of the campaign mightn't even materialize at all--Ted's high and dry.
07 10 06 A.S.
It isn't so much that McMeekin's popular in Westdale; more that he's a more viable voting choice than the Tories there--in Aldershot, it was practically the reverse. And if we assume that in spite of Westdale's NDP signage, this remains pretty much a Liberal/PC race, then yes, it tokenly tilts things in the McMeekin direction...
07 10 05 KGS
I've seen it mentioned that Westdale will help McMeekin, that he is ‘popular’ in that part of ADFW. I have to disagree on both counts. Westdale is NDP territory, and this election I have seen more yards with NDP signs than I can ever recall federally or provincially. On my street there are more GP signs than Liberals and PC combined.
07 09 29 JJ
The comparison between the province-wide results with the corresponding ones for this riding for both the provincial (2003) and federal (2006) elections shows that PCs score consistently in this riding 3-4% higher than the provincial average. I am expecting the PCs to get close to 40% of the votes in this riding (2003 37.4% 2006 39.1%) If the province-wide results in the October elections are about 40% for the liberals(-6.4% from 2003) then in order to win they should try hard to minimize their losses in this riding since the variation in liberal vote in this riding is substantial(2003 47.5% 2006 34.5%).
A two-way race for this riding between the Liberals and PCs.
07 09 29 Alex Huntley
I find that too many people are trying to take the 2006 federal results and superimpose it on this election. This is flawed for a number of reasons:
1) Ted McMeekin is not Russ Powers
McMeekin garners support in areas that Powers never could. He has a base of support in Flamborough that cannot be eroded. He has a history of service in all areas of the riding. His organization is better than Powers and generally performs better in debates than Powers
2) Chris Corrigan is not David Sweet
David Sweet had the most volunteers I have ever seen in my entire life in a campaign office. When you walked into Sweet's office, you could barely move. On election day, he had 200 cars taking voters to the polls. Sweet has an organization that Corrigan can only dream of. Corrigan's office is close most days while Sweet's was buzzing well into the night. For some reason, Sweets crew has not come to help Corrigan. Probably because of a disdain of John Tory.
3) Juanita Muldonado is not Gordon Guyatt
Guyatt had a huge organization, was well liked in both Westdale and Dundas and even certain parts of Ancaster. Guyatt is a highly education and well respected doctor, so when he talks about health care he has some weight behind the subject. Muldonado is a musician, who is not well liked by voters or even her own volunteers. She screams, she yells, she generally does not act like an MPP should.
The difference this election is the candidates. In 2006, there was two strong challengers and a generally weak incumbent. In this election you have one strong incumbent and two generally weak challengers.
This will make the difference here. No star candidates, no strong organizations and, in the end the most important factor, no strong challenger to the incumbent. Thus, a Liberal hold.
07 09 28 Shawn
The faith-based school issue is not playing as well out here as some may have thought.
First off, while many would expect Flamborough to be mostly in favour of it, I'm noticing a lot of people from rural areas worried that public funds going to private schools would take students away from the area public schools and they would have to close.
Because of this issue, I'm predicting a Liberal hold. The PCs are not getting the support they need in the rural areas to pull this one off.
07 09 17 Waterdown
It is public knowledge that the Liberals have been polling in this riding to see how their support was pre-writ. See Andrew Dreschel's coloumn in the Spectator. The Liberals' own polling showed that they were trailing the PCs in this riding. Ted is incumbent but it won't take much for Corrigan to take the seat.
07 09 17 C.Jeffers
At the end of the day, there is only one name on the ballot that ADFWer's know and that is Ted McMeekin's. For the life of me I can't seem to understand how a McMeekin loss would be engineered here. I can't see it.
07 09 13 CB
(1) Who the hell is Chris Corrigan? The Tories have shot themselves in the foot with this nomination. Corrigan has a pretty solid resume, but he has zero profile. That's the only reason that I'm going with the Liberals... this one is extremely close otherwise.
(2) McMeekin is NOT popular in Westdale, believe me (I've lived in Westdale for several years now). People do not forget the things he had to say about Hamilton (i.e., us) during the amalgamation battle.
07 09 11 JJ
Past results for Ancaster-Dundas-Falmborough-Wesdale riding.

(An-Du-Fl-We Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Wesdale)
An-Du-Fl-We riding: LIB 34.5%, PC 39.1%, NDP 21.3%, Green Party 4.4% CONSERVATIVES WON BY 4.6%
(An-Du-Fl-Al Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot)
An-Du-Fl-Al riding: LIB 47.5%, PC 37.4%, NDP 11.7%, Green Party 1.8% LIBERALS WON BY 9.9%
ONTARIO PROVINCIAL RESULTS:LIB 46.4%, PC 34.6%, NDP 14.7%, Green Party 4.3%

If the liberals get in June 10th 2007 election 40% of the province wide vote then the LIBERALS will win this riding. If they drop to 37% and are province wide close to conservatives at 37% then the riding can go either way. If the results on October 10th 2007 have the conservatives 1-2 points ahead province wide (PC minority), then the riding will go PC (this riding scores for PC 3-4% higher than the provincial average).

A two-way race for this riding between the Liberals and PCs.
07 09 10 Fromtheville
If it were anybody but Ted McMeekin running, the Liberals would have a harder time out here. McMeekin is known everywhere in the riding and is well liked. The NDPers are running a nobody against him which will allow him to win votes in the are that Gordon Guyett would have denied him.
McMeekin hold.
07 09 06 Ancastarian
McMeekin is toast. It seems like his whole campaign team has logged onto this website. As a life-long Ancaster citizen, I have witnessed many elections. Above posts are misleading. For instance, one poster mentions that the NDP held this seat before the PC's did. The ONLY time a Dipper has won this is when Rae became premier. Other then that they have never won it, and there was a period of over 40 years when the PC's pretty much had a lock around here. Not much has changed. Liberal fortunes in Hamilton are declining, and the NDP is making large gains. The riding redistribution has added Westdale, where NDP support is traditionally strong and getting stronger. McMeekin does well in Dundas, where Liberals always do well, and has more support in Flamborough, but the view among many Ancastarians is that he's a political hack who has accompished nothing for the riding. He will not do well in Ancaster! His plurality since the by-election has crumpled. Against a half decent PC candidate he will lose this seat . With the NDP gaining ground and stealing Liberal votes, and the PC?s also picking up strength I?m going to predict a PC gain. This should at least be to close to call, for McMeekin will not win as handily as many above posters predict.
07 09 02 Tyler Beck
If this was the old riding, I would say that Ted would have more of a fight on his hands but with the addition of Westdale - and the low profile of the NDPs candidate - he should have little problem pulling this one off. Dundas will go Liberal as always and sizable chunks of Ancaster and Flamborough will not abandon Ted that quickly.
Liberal doubt about it.
07 08 29 Helpfulfixer
ADFW is the kind of riding that is more likely to offset a federal Tory vote with a provincial Grit vote. The NDPs and Greens took 25% of the federal ADFW vote in 2006, so the riding is by no means naturally blue. If anything, the inclusion of voters with a significant interest in health and PSE issues will erode the Tory vote in the riding. I don't think Maldonado connects with the community in the same way Dr. Guyatt does, but it's possible some Liberal votes could be lost on the left. Regardless, Flamborough and a strong percentage of Ancaster, Dundas and Westdale voters will send Ted back to Queen's Park.
07 08 29 sub-urban
McMeekin's toast.
He went in on a protest vote and accomplished nothing on the file that propelled him in. He survived 2003 carried along in the Liberal sweep with a much reduced plurality from his by-election win. As the Liberal tide recedes he will not be able to stay afloat. His only hope is the gain of Westdale in place of Aldershot. However, if the federal Conservatives were able to elect a social conservative in the last federal election they will take this riding easily. If the PCs are going to gain seats this time around, this seat is in the top five likely gains.
07 08 27 Walker
With all due respect, your a little off base here.
1) Your correct in saying that this riding was PC before McMeekin won it but it was also NDP before that. Under the same logic, every party would have a legitimate claim to it.
2) You say that McMeekin only won the riding due to a protest vote, but that cannot help explain why he won in 2003.
3) Yes, Corrigan did win the nomination but it was hardly competitive. Corrigan is John Tory's hand picked candidate and as such, the central party put the fix in because they didn't want Mark Mullins winning again. Trust me, I was there helping with another campaign. The nomination date kept being set back to give Corrigan further time to sell memberships. The fix was in, the process was not competitive
4) Hamilton's other MPPs have not resigned, just simply said they will not seek re-election, so an instant cabinet post is not in the cards. Andrew Dreschell has been saying constantly that if McMeekin can pull off re-election, he has a cabinet post. The man is pretty on the ball when it comes to predictions.
5) Nothing is guaranteed but I do believe McMeekin will be re-elected. He's worked hard in the riding over the past seven years and barring a John Tory sweep of the province will retain his seat.
As a card-carrying PC member, there is nothing I'd like to see more than John Tory become Premier but it's hard for me to say that McMeekin hasn't done a good job in the riding. In my community, McMeekin has helped us out a lot in our fight against a massive quarry being implanted in our area. He's been to every one of our meetings, set up meetings with ministry staff and liasoned with our lawyers. He's been making progress so far and has worked really hard on our behalf.
When my riding association entered the nomination period, I asked all three candidates what they were planning on doing about the quarry. My candidate had the right answer. I couldn't support Mullins again so I turned to Corrigan and asked him - he didn't even know what I was talking about.
Liberal hold because McMeekin knows the people, knows the issues and has a proven track record.
07 08 26 A.S.
If there's anything which ought to dissuade people from overweighting Ted McMeekin's apparent grassroots popularity, it's the fact that despite his party's landslide in 2003, he only managed a 10-point advantage over a supposed write-off Tory opponent (and a ReformAlliancer, to boot)--and that was McMeekin's first general election, remember. (By this evidence, had 95/99 Tory winner Toni Skarica stuck around, he might well have survived '03 as well.) Then again, by swapping Aldershot for Westdale, redistribution has worked in the Grits' favour--or more properly, the left's favour; after all, Westdale suddenly gives the seat an ominously viable NDP base, or at least the illusion thereof. (And such redistribution didn't prevent the Tories from taking the seat federally--and with a dreaded 'social conservative', as well.) Nevertheless, thanks to his disarming Flamborough background, McMeekin remains about as electably well positioned as a Grit can be in a seat like this; and I doubt the mass retirement of Hamilton's other incumbent Liberals will dampen the picture much--if anything, it's the perfect kind of seat to coax out a certain sensible-shoes electoral-integrity Harper/McGuinty crossover mandate. But, no doubt, the Grits will have to watch their backs. Echoing the last pair of federal elections, we might well have to prepare for a under-$40 victory result...
07 08 21 RyanOntario
The previous posters have been very optimistic of the liberals chances here. but i see reason to question that . one this riding was pc before Ted mckeekin won it in a protest by-election and it is conservative federally . pc candidate Chris Corrigan was able to win a competitive nomination meeting so i wouldn't count him out.
when you look at the other hamilton area ridings all the liberal mpp's seem to be not running again for some reason. and even with all these mpp's gone Ted mckeekin is still being ignored by his own party and not in cabinet . He seems to low profile to be guaranteed re-election and ndp and pc will likely still be active in this riding.
07 07 27 Jeff
Current MPP Ted McMeekin should hold this riding. McMeekin is popular and has deep roots in the riding. The addition of Westdale from the former Hamilton West riding and the subtraction of Aldershot (moved to the redrawn Burlington riding) will help rather than hurt McMeekin's re-election prospects. The Tories and the NDP have nominated relatively unknown candidates. McMeekin wins narrowly.
07 07 19 Mark Mulligan
This is McMeekin's to lose. The PCs are running some unknown former army colonel - not that impressive if you ask me. I've been chatting with people and it looks like a McMeekin hold. I can't find many people willing to switch their votes. That could be because the election is not on people's mind right now but I can't find many people willing to switch. I got a piece of campaign lit from McMeekin in my mailbox last week. He's already working. If he keeps it up he can't be beaten.
07 07 16 Steve V
I'm pretty much going to echo the last three entries here.
Despite a John Tory sweep of the province, McMeekin will hold this seat. He's well liked throughout the riding, is hard working, and his office staff have dealt with thousands of people over the past seven years. He should be able to win, but there are problems on the horizon:
1) Ancaster - this area went Conservative in large numbers during the last federal campaign. McMeekin will have to work this area hard to make sure that he doesn't experience the same fate as Russ Powers, which is still a distinct possibility. There wasn't a lot for Ancaster to like in the last budget so McMeekin will have to sell what he has.
2) Westdale - this area usually goes NDP, allowing the Tory's to slip up the middle and win it. McMeekin will have to watch his butt here. Basically he has to campaign like a socialist in westdale and campaign like a conservative in Ancaster.
McMeekin is probably one of the best politicians around. Not being in cabinet has saved him here as he has gotten a lot more time to spend in his riding. McMeekin should be able to pull this off but he has to get Westdale and Ancaster covered. If he's smart, he'll put his campaign office in one of those areas.
My prediction: Liberal hold.
07 07 07 Teej
This one is a Liberal hold for sure...or should I say a Ted McMeekin hold. The Liberal party doesn't play well here but McMeekin sure does. I don't think there is one person in Ancaster, Dundas or Flamborough that hasn't encountered McMeekin in his 20 odd years in politics.
The only question mark is Westdale but McMeekin is a former NDPer and Hamilton councillor so he should play well in the left-of-centre Westdale area. Plus, the NDP candidate here is unknown so that should help McMeekin.
Once McMeekin steps down this riding will go Tory for a generation but it will stay Liberal as long as McMeekin is around.
I'd be very surprised to see McMeekin lose this one.
07 07 02 ADC
I pretty much agree with the previous poster. McMeekin will win Dundas and most of Flamborough (unusual for a Liberal) and will do fairly well in Westdale (at the very least, enough to be competitive with the NDP there). Ancaster is undoubtedly his weakest area but it shouldn't matter much if he can perform solidly enough elsewhere.
07 06 20 Mark Mulligan
McMeekin is popular in Flamborough (as a former mayor), which makes or breaks the riding for the federal Liberals. He's popular in Dundas and the new area of Westdale. His only weak spot is Ancaster. If he can shore up support in Ancaster, he'll be fine. Even if he doesn't he should pull it off. Liberal by a nose.

Submit Information here

Regional Index
Ontario Provincial - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster