Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 22/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition
New Democratic

Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (56.7%)
Wayne Arthurs
Whitby-Ajax (43.3%)
Christine Elliott

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the Official Agent for Kevin Ashe.

07 10 15 905er
Wow, did 'No Clark Gable' call it. The riding was +7 off the Liberal numbers and +3 of the Conservative numbers.
I have no idea what you guys were thinking when you called this riding Conservative. It blasted past the provincial numbers for the Liberals and just isn't the riding of old. This is what we were saying.
07 10 10 Peter
The election has now finished, and Joe Dickson took this riding quite easily. I think that Tories don't understand how much this riding's demographics have changed over the last few years, which has turned Ajax into a Liberal stronghold.
07 10 09 binriso
5 visits? Id think that the PCs are more worried than anything if Tory came here 5 times. If they were ahead, Tory wouldn’t bother going. Joe Dickson might just squeak this one out and i think he will by a few hundred votes. The Liberals clearly ran the better campaign and provincial trends put them on the way up. This elections results will be almost the same as 03, minus maybe 5-10 seats changing different ways but will still be ~70 Liberal seats tomorrow.
07 10 09 Humble Resident
Both Kevin and Joe would make good representatives. Under the awfull MMP proposal we could get both. It started as a nail bitter with a slight edge to Joe in spite of his slow start and Ashe's strong performance and seasoned coaches. Tory's education issues made it a Liberal win in spite of Ashe's attempted strong defence of the funding issue. Will Tory's new free vote position tilt the scale back to a close call? It looks like both leaders, John and Dalton, will be in the riding on the eve of the election.
07 10 07 in the know
John Tory making a fifth visit to Ajax Pickering riding on Tuesday.
This shows that the Tories are ahead and this will push it over the top for Ashe.
Liberal Candidate Dickson also in a bubble and getting horrible press.
ASHE is everywhere
07 10 06 MS from durham
I am amazed that this is not in the TCTC column. I work in the riding and from what I see and hear, plus the poll numbers I have seen, this has gone from slight PC lead to completely deadlocked. If the central campaign loses any more ground before Wednesday, Joe will eek out a small victory. He is a well liked, experienced municipal politician - Ashe, I have never heard of before the campaign, and feel his initial strength was due to the central campaign, whose coattails are shrivelling away quickly.
07 10 05 PG
I feel Joe Dickson is a very popular candidate in Ajax, and for those who don't know Joe Dickson, many will vote for the liberals based on their provincial campaign. Nonetheless, it will definitely be close, but the liberals should win by a small margin.
07 10 03 lrs
This must be one the closest seats in the Province or the Tories are coming to seat so often means that they think this is the best of one of their few chances to pick up an open seat- seat the Tories should win - basing prediction mainly that Liberals will win based on the provincial trends in the polls pointing to a Liberal majority- Liberals by less then 2000 votes
07 10 03 JS
I think Joe will be VERY close but in the end it will go PC.. John Tory has been in the riding 4 TIMES and that is a big people pleaser... and now that the faith based policy is gone it gives the PCs a little bit of time to get back the lost votes!!! i say it will be within 300 votes..but Ashe will win
07 10 02 Frankly Scarlet
416/905 is only polling ahead of the curve because of the 416. The 905 the Conservatives are up, and above 2003 numbers.
Ashe has unleashed a media hellstorm that seems to be having an impact. Joe's stupid remarks at the debate were admonished by his own leader yet he still refused to stand by them. Now we see him flacking his print shop with refundable campaign dollars.
This was a Tory pickup before the policy shift on faith based now with it off
07 10 01 Peter
I see this going to the Liberal Party too. Ajax' population has grown considerably in recent years, and this demographic has supported Liberal candidates in other elections too. Joe Dickson is a popular councillor, while the Conservative candidate was a councillor in a Pickering area outside of this riding.
Moreover, with polls indicating the Liberals ahead of the Tories in the 905, it would be logical to think that this riding will follow that general pattern. I also expect a very weak NDP campaign, which will benefit the Liberals.
07 09 27 No Clark Gable
The 905 and 416 are polling ahead of the province. This is no exception. Ajax-Pickering is not going to underperform the provincial numbers. The explosive growth in north Ajax is all from scarborough and the north Pickering was won by Holland in the last election by more than 50% of the vote. Even south Ajax is not the south Ajax of old. Extensive new developments mean ever better Liberal numbers. Here is a formula for this riding you can take to the bank ; provincial numbers +5% for Liberals, +2% for CP, - 7% for the NDP, Greens even. No one has mentioned it but the first NDP candidate in this riding quit and said the NDP was absolutely dead here. The next one has been a disaster. Add it all up and this prediction is way off base.
07 09 25 Frankly Scarlet
I'm not sure what poll has the Liberals up 17 points in Durham, everything I have taken a look at puts it in a dead heat or even a slight Tory lead.
Claremont, Greenwood and South Ajax will all break for Ashe, and given that I doubt Joe can even find Greenwood on a map we could be talking blow out numbers in some of those polls.
It wont be a blow out but Ashe should still pick with up by a solid 3,000 votes.
07 09 24 905er
The Liberals are 17 points ahead in the 905 and you are calling this diverse riding PC... Ok. Wrong call. No question that Joe Dickson is a weaker candidate but he will still win by a minimum of 5,000 votes.
07 09 21 905er
This will go Liberal. The riding has changed a lot since 2003 and the previous poster is correct in saying they are from Scarborough and are Liberal. While not as strong a riding provincially as federally, the lack of star candidates and new demographics lock this down. Dickson and Arthurs will win. Whitby will stay blue, Oshawa might well go orange (due to a very week Liberal campaign) and why bother discussing Durham - the Tories will hold that easily.
07 09 05 Nick J Boragina
I?m a little uncomfortable trying to call this riding. While redistribution has a tory win, you must remember that Ajax as an exploding population. Sure the voters in this riding in 2003 would have voted PC, but how about the voters in the riding today? My guess is most of the new comers had voted Liberal back when they lived within Toronto City Limits. They are likely to continue to vote Liberal now. That being said the tories are looking at an increase in vote share this election. On the whole I feel that the tories do have the edge here, but only slightly.
07 09 02 KM
Kevin will win by a landslide... joe has yet to canvass and his campaign is currently relying on his wife, business and Campaign Manager... he is injured which is a bad start to a campaign we will defiantly take at least 50% of the Ajax Vote but Kevin was a counciller in Pickering so i say kevin wins this is my prediction
Kevin Ashe: 14,500
Joe Dickson: 9,250
Scott Newell:2,000
Reid Scott:500
07 09 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
?This area is just not conservative to elect a PC?...but...after redistribution, the PC would have won this riding in 2003...
True Flaherty and Ecker are the main reasons for this but it still shows that the PC are very competitive in this riding. With the Liberals down in the polls, it's a good chance that this will go PC. Too close to call for now, but to make a certain Liberal claim is rather foolhearty.
07 08 22 abcd
All these ridings are now under federal boundaries. Under the federal boundaries, this riding is immensely liberal. Mark Holland holds this riding for the liberals by a huge margin. I would not be surprised to see a liberal win in Ajax Pickering. This area is just not conservative to elect a PC
07 08 14 A.S.
Don't be too bold and firm with the Tory predictions; remember that a lot of that notional '03 strength was a Flaherty (or even Janet Ecker) vote more than a PC vote per se. And just as much as Dickson may be no Arthurs or Holland, Ashe (even with his Queen's Park bloodlines) is no Flaherty or Ecker. Though yes, the issue of Dickson's age and health has uncomfortable echoes of Doug Moffat's federal suicide run in Durham in '06. Overall, a seat which is trending 'inner 905' blue-to-red, but not as drastically as some of its York and Peel counterparts (and tempered by the Flaherty/Elliott factor). If Dickson won, it'd be in spite of himself. And in the Lewis-through-Rae years, the NDP, too, would have been competitive here...
07 08 09 RyanOntario
This seat is a potential pc gain , as the liberal candidate is not as high profile as Wayne Arthur or federal mp Mark Hollands .
this type of suburban family oriented riding is the type of seats the pc's will likely win , there not going to be sweeping toronto but can win in the suburbs around it.
If the liberals couldn't elect former liberal mp Judi longfield in a by-election which included parts of this riding then i can't see them winning this seat come election day .
07 08 07 Marto
There is a reason that Wayne Arthurs isn't running here - Liberals are toast in this riding !! They would have lost last time under these boundries - and that was with Big Ernie IN Charge. With the Double E gone - tories will regain this seat. Kevin Ashe is going to win in a landslide
07 08 07 in the know
Time to move this one over to a Conservative Pick up.
John Tory had a second visit to the riding on August 1. Huge mid week/mid day summer crowd. Tories have obviously targeted the riding. Secondly...70ish Liberal candidate Joe Dickson had an accident over the weekend which will further diminish his capacity to canvass.
Took ?livin in Ajax? advice and called the Tory Candidate about his ?golf holiday?. Mr Ashe said ?that his only golf activity during the municipal election was a single game of golf with my brother on the Thanksgiving weekend ?(six weeks prior to the municipal election). Perhaps ?Livin in Ajax? should get his facts right.
07 08 01 Livin in Ajax
Wow...does Livin in Pickering even no the truth....Mr. Ashe did indeed go away..on a golf trip to be exact. Maybe contacting Mr. Ashe to find the truth would be Livin in Pickering's best bet. And to that Mr. Ashe is the future and and we must move forward?? What has Joe Dickson been doing all these years but moving the Town of Ajax forward...and now he will do the same for the new riding of Ajax-Pickering...funny how Mr. Ashe does not even live in the riding isn't it?
07 07 18 Livin in Pickering
The comments by Livin in Ajax are really off the wall. First of all, Kevin Ashe did not go away during the municipal election. Second, his loss was far more attributable to fall out from the Maurice Brenner affair in the same ward. Finally, Joe Dickson has undoubtedly done a great deal for his community. However, this election is not about the past, it is about the future. Joe's recent performance on Ajax Council and his SERIOUS health issues over the past few years make him an extremely questionable choice to represent Ajax-Pickering at Queen's Park...especially under a John Tory government!
07 07 08 Livin in Ajax
There is no way that Mr. Ashe who was a Pickering Councillor and was defeated by a 23 year old because he was lazy and decided to go away during the municipal election can defeat Mr. Ajax, Joe Dickson. Joe has been in politics for many years and his experience and hard working attitude will certainly make this a riding to go to the Liberals
07 06 11 Panther
Kevin Ashe, the former Pickering Councillor, will take this Riding for the Conservatives. Redistribution helped create a demographically conservative riding. As a result, it will join the other Durham Region ridings currently held by PC MPPs and will all be easily re-elected.
However, if Joe Dickson wins the Liberal nomination, it might make a victory a little more difficult, but still the Riding will vote PC. Dickson lost (was crushed) once before in 1995 against a then relatively unknown - Janet Ecker. Also, Dickson's age and health will not help him in this election.
07 05 28 Durham Guy
Mr Ashe is a nice man but assumes the world owes him. He will not work very hard for it which is why he lost his council seat to a nobody.
07 05 09 JLS
Kevin Ashe is now the official PC candidate in Ajax-Pickering, bringing a wealth of personal and family experience as well as a strong, well-disciplined campaign organization. If the Liberals nominate Joe Dickson, a well liked, but well past his prime Ajax councillor, this new, redistributed riding should easily go to the Tories.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Although this is a Liberal riding federally, the re-adjusted boundaries would have meant this riding would have gone PC last provincial election so considering the PCs are likely to gain seats provincially even if they lose the election, I don't think they should have too much travel winning this. Lets remember last federal election, the Tories choose a religious right wing nutbar Rondo Thomas and considering John Tory is more centrist, I doubt this will be an issue.

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