Prediction Changed
11:48 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bagnell, Larry
New Democratic
Bolton, Ken
Pasloski, Darrell
Streicker, John

Hon. Larry Bagnell

2006 Result:
Larry Bagnell **
Pam Boyde
Sue Greetham
Philippe LeBlond

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 gumpfor
With the Premier of the Yukon publicly endoursing the Coservative party today I feel that the people of the Yukon will vote Conservative. The Yukon party is liked and I feel with this endoursement that it will be a tight battle but with a Conservative win on this riding.
08 10 08 binriso
With a 25 point advantage they definitely wont lose this time around. Nunavut might pose some problems but Yukon will easily stay Liberal.
08 09 09 W Knapp
Conservative in memory of YUKON ERIC. I was raised in Yukon & have fond memories of Eric Neilson. Since I do not live in Yukon, I am not sure how the chances of the Conservative candidate is. Personalities play a big part in this riding. I hear that the Liberal is well liked. Maybe the Conservative candidate has a good chance this time.
08 01 12 A.S.
Remember that Yukoners *did* vote somebody out in 2000 (Louise Hardy, Audrey McLaughlin's one-term NDP successor) on behalf of Bagnell. As it stands, though, Bagnell's sufficiently idiosyncratic that he could conceivably survive even if Stephane Dion did an Audrey and reduced the federal Grits to 9 seats nationally...
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
Unlike other northern ridings, this one trends more towards parties, partly because the territorial electoral system uses parties as well. On those grounds, it should go Liberal. On the grounds of a popular local MP, it should still go Liberal.
07 09 09 GJJ
Bagnell has increased his percentage of vote with each election and should cruise to an easy victory.
07 07 16 binriso
Well geeze, the LPC almost cracked 50% here pretty damn good for the 06 election. No trouble at all for a re-election for Larry Bagnell, or whoever else runs for them.
07 05 28 NESooite
Agree with M Lunn's assessment in that incumbent holds the advantage. Particularly given the large size of the riding and that people are familiar with their MP. Historically has been the case with Erik Neilsen and Audrey McLaughlin. Once you are in, it is hard to vote someone out.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This riding tends to vote for one party for a long period of time and only switches every so often. It went PC from 1957-1987, NDP 1987-2000, so Larry Bagnell still has a few more elections before he has to worry about anything. Of the three Northern ridings, this may not be historically as safe a Liberal riding as the other two, but it will probably be their best showing of the three considering Larry Bagnell is the only Liberal incumbent seeking re-election in the North.

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