Prediction Changed
11:48 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Yukon
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Larry Bagnell

2006 Result:
Larry Bagnell **
6847
Pam Boyde
3366
Sue Greetham
3341
Philippe LeBlond
559

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 01 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Remember that Yukoners *did* vote somebody out in 2000 (Louise Hardy, Audrey McLaughlin's one-term NDP successor) on behalf of Bagnell. As it stands, though, Bagnell's sufficiently idiosyncratic that he could conceivably survive even if Stephane Dion did an Audrey and reduced the federal Grits to 9 seats nationally...
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
74.14.16.208
Unlike other northern ridings, this one trends more towards parties, partly because the territorial electoral system uses parties as well. On those grounds, it should go Liberal. On the grounds of a popular local MP, it should still go Liberal.
07 09 09 GJJ
132.156.142.198
Bagnell has increased his percentage of vote with each election and should cruise to an easy victory.
07 07 16 binriso
156.34.236.67
Well geeze, the LPC almost cracked 50% here pretty damn good for the 06 election. No trouble at all for a re-election for Larry Bagnell, or whoever else runs for them.
07 05 28 NESooite
72.74.243.106
Agree with M Lunn's assessment in that incumbent holds the advantage. Particularly given the large size of the riding and that people are familiar with their MP. Historically has been the case with Erik Neilsen and Audrey McLaughlin. Once you are in, it is hard to vote someone out.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
This riding tends to vote for one party for a long period of time and only switches every so often. It went PC from 1957-1987, NDP 1987-2000, so Larry Bagnell still has a few more elections before he has to worry about anything. Of the three Northern ridings, this may not be historically as safe a Liberal riding as the other two, but it will probably be their best showing of the three considering Larry Bagnell is the only Liberal incumbent seeking re-election in the North.



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