Prediction Changed
4:26 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Christian Heritage
Cooper, John
McClintock, Jack
Park Shannon, Anne
Saab, Adam
New Democratic
Savoie, Denise

Denise Savoie

2006 Result:
Denise Savoie
David Mulroney
Robin Baird
Ariel Lade
Fred Mallach
Saul Andersen
Bruce Burnett

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 06 KDH
Even as a partisan Liberal I can't lie to myself and say this will swing back Liberal. The candidate this time around is not too inspiring or all that well liked. (It also doesn't help that her campaign volunters are diverting themselves to the nearby ridings to ensure that Keith and Briony get elected.)
I think the NDP can comfortably hold onto this one for now and it will stay NDP.
08 09 14 KokuRyu
It seems likely that Denise Savoie will carry this riding - she's an incumbent, and I can't recall who the other two candidates (Tory, Liberal) are. Oh, wait, I saw one ‘McClintock’ sign the other day, in Vic West.
I kind of wonder what's going on with the campaign with *all* the parties. Denise Savoie's website does not even list upcoming speaking engagements, and the ‘news’ section has not been updated to reflect the election call. A week has passed, which is a significant period of time in this election. It seems like none of the parties (except the Conservatives) were ready for the call.
08 09 13 Ron
I wouldn't say this is necessarily an NDP stronghold as the Liberals held this riding for many, many years prior to the last election. Mind you, the Liberals need a strong candidate such as David Anderson to do that. The previous posters are quite correct, too. This isn't a uniformly prototypical NDP riding. As pointed out, the area includes artist/student enclaves such as Downtown, Fernwood, North Park etc., middle class civil servant neighbourhoods like James Bay, Fairfield and quite a list of established, upper crust areas as well such as Rockland, South Oak Bay, Uplands and Ten Mile Point. Most of these most affluent areas tend to trend Liberal rather than Conservative as this is predominantly an urban riding surrounded by inner ring, older ‘streetcar’ suburbs. The conservatives do better further out of town.
08 09 09 Dr J
As another contributor has remarked, Oak Bay is included in this riding. There is a suspicion that this affluent area will support right wing parties (such as the Liberals and CPC). You have to remember, however, that Oak Bay is home to many progressive-leaning civil servants, academics and university students. These will favour the NDP (and, in some cases, Greens), even if the wealthy in the Uplands will vote Tory. Savoie has done a good job courting Oak Bay (at the Oak Bay 100th anniversary, she announced that she would try to change the name of the riding to Victoria-Oak Bay). I see this as a safe NDP hold.
08 08 14 Political Junkie
I'm making a cautious prediction that Victoria, the riding I'm currently sitting in, will stay NDP. Denise Savoie has a much higher profile than any of the other candidates (none of whom I've seen campaigning), and the Greens have yet to nominate a candidate, a fact that may well save Savoie. The NDP seem to be holding their own in B.C. lately as well. The big question is how the federal NDP's rejection of a carbon tax will impact upon the NDP vote. My feeling is that Savoie's green credentials as a previous city councillor combined with the fact that most pro-carbon tax voters probably already voted Green anyway will ensure that she hangs on even if a few votes slip to the Greens or Liberals. It won't be a landslide for Savoie, but a win nonetheless.
08 03 03 A.S.
If you want proof of how tea-at-the-Empress High Red Toryism morphed into a natural for the NDP, here it is--and all this while onetime rural/interior BC/Sask/Man NDP strongholds have morphed into perma-Toryism. By simply being there as elected rep (and with a provincial leader ensconced within as well), Savoie has guaranteed herself a certain permanence, Oak Bay or no Oak Bay--and guaranteed herself a certain insurance against the Greens, too, in a seat which they'd otherwise be targeting to the hilt...
07 11 02 Adam H.
You're absolutely right. A recent study that I read regarding voting patterns of Green Party voters indicated just that. Something like 85% of Green voters are people who list either the Conservatives or the Liberals as their second choice. Also, something like 77% of Green voters voted predominantly for the Conservatives or Liberals in the past.
As the Greens have shifted economically to the centre-right, that is the voters they have attracted. The study also indicated that where the Greens are taking votes from the NDP are in urban centres among young 18-25) year-old voters. This seems to be good news for the NDP moving forward as long as they stand firm on environmental issues.
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
One poster said that if the Greens start polling over 10% regularly, they might win here. Well the Greens have started to poll 10% or better. I disagree, however, that they’ll win here. Why the Greens are doing so well is their moderate approach to the issues. They have moved away from the German-style Green pseudo-communist approach to the issues, and are now closer economically to the Tories and Liberals. The problem is that such a moderate Green party is far more likely to steal votes from the larger moderate parties, while by-passing Socialists who vote NDP. I would be surprised if the Greens don’t come within a fighting distance of Second place here, but I would not be surprised if the NDP is able to hold on without much trouble.
07 07 27 binriso
Well the NDP support in the last 5 polls has been 17,17,18,19,19. CPC, 29,31,33,34,37. Average those out and youll get 32.8 for the CPC(3.5 lower than 06) and 18 for the NDP(0.5 higher than 06). Sooo the NDP arent plummeting nationally in fact their probably about the same as last election(maybe even higher), while the CPC are down a bit and so are the Liberals. No way they will lose this seat at this point in time not to mention they won by ~7000 votes last time.
07 06 03 King of Kensington
The NDP took this riding by a very wide margin last time. The polls in BC have fluctuated greatly and contrary to what some believe, the NDP hasn't been consistently down in the polls since the last election. Like Halifax, Victoria is a small city with a major university and a large number of civil servants - very NDP-friendly demographics. Easy NDP hold.
07 04 25 Incisive Logic
Denise Savoie was perhaps a popular city councillor, but she has hardly been a 'very popular,' or even a particularly effective MP. NDP support is waning federally, and as has been previously noted, this riding has never been a particularly strong hold for any party. The Green Party has significant political clout, and their wierd alliance with the Liberals might change the vote distribution dramatically, although I doubt that the Greens would overtly try to help the Liberals unseat the environmentally-friendly Denise Savoie. I would say the NDP has the advantage, but it is way too soon to tell.
07 04 15 Political Junkie
This was the riding where I voted in January 2006. While I won't make a solid prediction yet, my gut tells me that Denise Savoie and the NDP should be re-elected here. She was a popular city councillor and has environmental credentials that win over many potential Green voters. If the NDP however begins to decline significantly at the national level (say, consistently polling below 12%) then there is the possibility for a Liberal win. And if the Greens were to suddenly start polling over 10% in every poll, this would be one seat where a Green win could be possible. At the moment, however, I'd call this one an NDP-leaner.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
It is too early to tell. While the NDP is strong in Victoria, the Green Party is also strong here and if they siphon off enough NDP votes this could help the Liberals. In addition Oak Bay is more affluent and usually goes Liberal. This was contrary to the earlier poster once a safe Tory riding but that was back when Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield were the leaders and when the party was to the left of the what the Liberals are today. As the country swung right, the Tories also swung right, but this riding hasn't, thus why they cannot win here.
07 03 25 fortyfour
But this riding is much more than the provincial NDP strongholds of Victoria proper. Oak Bay is here, too. Federally this riding has never been considered an NDP stronghold, and the history backs that up. The Conservatives always say they have a shot, but rarely mount a serious threat. It will be close.
07 03 22 DL
Easy NDP hold. Victoria is up there with the east end of Vancouver as an NDP fortress and Denise Savoie is very popular.

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