Prediction Changed
4:26 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Vancouver East
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Carr, Mike
New Democratic
Davies, Libby
Jamieson, Anne
Work Less
Krowczyk, Betty
Low, Ken
Warawa, Ryan

Libby Davies

2006 Result:
Libby Davies **
David Carl Haggard
Elizabeth M. Pagtakhan
Christine Ellis
Bryce Bartholomew

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 04 Pierre from Quebec
As in the past as in the present, Vancouver East is the most socialist riding/constituency of all Northern America. Davies should get at least 60% in this election.
08 09 23 Seth
Has Ryan Warawa given up already? The Elections Canada website lists no confirmed Conservative candidate for this riding and the nomination deadline was yesterday. As if it makes any difference; this is Libby Davies' riding as long as she wants it. Any bets on the Green party for 2nd place?
08 09 16 Jason K
Ok, obviously you know nothing about the Chinese community if you think Chan is more well connected than Low. Yes her family is more prominent (being a Chan or Wong or Lau makes you that), but her connections are not as deep in Chinatown and in the neighbourhoods on the other side of the DTES. Now if you look at my posting, I did not predict the Liberals would win, but I think they will give Davies a run for her money. The only reason the former NDPer Chan ran was because no one else would take on Libby. She also ran one of the worst campaigns in Vancouver history. Then Dave Haggard parachuted in and only fought Libby with 20 grand (she spent 75 grand).
08 09 14
Justin K.,
I would question your statement that Ken Low has ĎDEEP DEEPí connections with the Chinese community. I think that is over exaggerated. Just because you're Chinese doesn't mean you're going to win a riding with 30% Chinese. In 2004, Shirley Chan was the candidate here. She is probably more well known among the Chinese community than Ken Low is, and at that time, the Liberals were still the strongest party in Canada. Well, as it turns out, she lost by over 12,000 votes. Libby Davies is popular here. This will be the last seat the NDP will lose in all of Canada in the event of an NDP meltdown. A solid NDP riding.
08 09 12 Justin K.
You know what? don't be so quick to count out Ken Low, the Liberal candidate. Last time's results are skewed because Dave Haggard was a weak candidate who only spend 20 grand to Libby's 75 grand. Over 30,000 people in this riding didn't vote last time...many of them Chinese. And the riding is more Chinese than ever...over 30%. And Low has DEEP, DEEP connections in the Chinese community. Enough to give Libby a run for her money.
08 09 11 kegler
Ok... this one is rather easy. Obviously Libby is going to win and win handily, and will not be doing so by sitting around either. The conservative competition????? Ryan Wawara, who wants so bad to be the first ?father / son? team in the House of Commons. Let's see Clement declares Wawara... err war on insite. And the conservatives aren't known for their compassion and caring for people in general, unless they have the title CEO after their name. It's a good thing that Ryan is so well versed on the bible, because politically, it might be time to start reading the 23rd Psalm as it were.
08 09 11 Warren
The only chance for liberals to win this riding is if Libby Davies falls into a coma, and even then it will still take a miracle. Libby Davies re-election is certain but I dont foresee her becoming the house leader again since NDP is becoming more moderate and is taking on the populist platform that the liberal democrats are taking in UK.
08 02 10 A.S.
Given the overwhelming (and likely future-condo-proof) advantage Libby Davies now holds, it seems beyond belief that this *wasn't* one of the seats to survive the 1993 NDP massacre--if we were to replay that dynamic today, she'd surely be the party's only survivor west of Manitoba. Or if one were to *really* stretch things, the last NDP survivor, *period*. (Okay, that's getting a little too bold for comfort.)
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
Holy Moses. I knew this was a strong NDP riding but when I saw the results from last election my eyes nearly fell out of my head! Add to that Davies support of Layton when he ran for leader (and hence his return support of seeing her re-elected a few more times) and you get an easy NDP victory. Wow, those three words donít usually go together.
07 09 16 Mike
Lots of renters in Vancouver East, and they are most likely to be NDP voters. Even though Vancouver real estate is hugely expensive, rents are not increasing much. Often speculators rent-out condos at a huge loss because they are counting on appreciation. Don't expect East Van demographics or voting patterns to change significantly in the foreseeable future.
07 04 24 Vancouver Conservative
It's still Libby's now but development will take this away from her in the next election.
07 04 08 David
Easy win!. More wealth is in this riding now as it is getting more condos and housing prices are up but even with that it will still go NDP. Libby is so popular here and many here who might consider voting liberal will mix them up with the unpopular provincial liberals in this riding. No chance of a Conservative and win and look for the Greens to increase their vote
07 04 06 M. Lunn
Easy NDP win. This may have gone Liberal in 1993 and 1974, but both times they faced an unpopular provincial NDP government, which they don't have now. Never mind in the 2001 provincial election, the two BC NDP ridings were both in this one, so this probably the safest NDP riding in the whole country.
07 04 03 Brian Appel
Vancouver East isn't the poorest riding in Canada, but it's certainly one of them. Also, within it are the provincial ridings of Vancouver-Mount Pleasant and Vancouver-Hastings, the two poorest ridings in British Columbia. Those in this riding who don't live below the poverty line have neighbours that do. Lots of union friendly people in this riding too. Oh, and if that isn't enough, this riding, in its entire existence, has only not been won by a CCF or NDP candidate in two elections. In 1974 and in 1993, both times due to the unpopular policies of the current NDP Premier (Barrett in '74 and Harcourt in '93). To sum up, Mount Royal has a better chance of going Bloc Quebecois after the next election than Van East has of going anywhere but back to Libby.
07 03 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A dull, dull race and a sure-fire win for the NDP. Libby is just way too much of a star in Vancouver east.
07 03 22 DL
Safest NDP seat in Canada. Libby Davies is ridiculously popular.

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