Prediction Changed
3:49 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

North Vancouver
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Don Bell

2006 Result:
Don Bell **
25357
Cindy Silver
22021
Sherry Shaghaghi
7903
Jim Stephenson
4483
Michael Hill
112

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 12 30 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Liberals succeed here as a reincarnated Progressive Conservative party. The question is whether such Martinizing glue will hold in a Stephane Dion era--and a deeper question is whether there'll be fallout from the Blair Wilson affair next door...
07 12 14 R.O.
66.186.79.126
Too close to call , even though the liberal Don Bell won this the last two elections I’m still going to say conservatives have a chance here. Since the previous results were so close and riding was never liberal during 93-04 and reform/alliance back then instead. When this riding went liberal back in 04 martin spent a lot of time in bc and had high hopes that didn’t really turn out. this was one of the few ridings that did actually go liberal. Think it could really come down to the candidates and general trends in bc
07 05 11 British Columbian
143.161.248.25
Despite a decline in vote share federally, Don Bell managed to a greater margin of victory in the last election the previous one. In 2004 he unseated the unpopular incumbent Ted White by over 2,000 votes despite predictions that he would lose. Running against a socially conservative candidate in 2006, he again managed to win the seat by over 3,300 votes, despite predictions of defeat. I think that North Vancouver voters are content with their MP, as they were satisfied with his performance as mayor. The Bell-Liberal team ran sound campaigns in both elections, and I expect they will again in the next election. Despite the middle-high income demographic of this riding, I think that the Liberals will gold this riding with fiscally conservative, former mayor Don Bell in another fairly close election.
07 04 16 Steve L.
24.84.150.65
the whole Conservative nomination process here is in limbo. Nomination procedures have been extended time and time again because nobody knew when there's gonna be an election. (oh yeah so why is ElectionPrediction.org seemingly certain about a 2007 election? hmm?)
The most serious setback from all this is that Herb Grubel has currently withdrawn his hat from the ring, so to speak. He might come back, but if he doesn't, whoever gets chosen will have an uphill battle against Don Bell.
The best of the non-Grubel guys are only nominally better than Cindy Silver. She did as good a job in differentiating her religion from her political beliefs as anyone can, and she still lost. The Conservatives need to do more than just pander to the ‘moderate’ axis. Can guys like Andrew Saxton or Kevin Krahn do it? maybe, but I ain't holding my breath.
Bottom line, if Grubel comes back, this riding gets a big fat blue C from me - because, like him or hate him, he's only gonna be a solid contender for a high-profile cabinet or critic post in the next government, whoever forms it. If not, too close to call.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
24.80.152.58
As for this riding, on paper it should be a strong possibility for the Conservatives, yet in the last two elections Don Bell won both despite the fact everyone predicted he wouldn't win. The reality is although a suburban riding and a reasonably affluent one it is right across the inlet from the Downtown so people here are not as conservative as say out in the Fraser Valley. They may be on economic issues and law and order, but not social issues. If the Tories choose a moderate fiscally conservative but socially progressive candidate, they can retake this, but if they choose another redneck like Ted White or religious fundamentalist like Cindy Silver, Don Bell, who is a Blue Liberal and well liked by his constituents should hold this one.



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