Prediction Changed
10:33 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

North Vancouver
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Audain, Tunya
Bell, Don
New Democratic
Charrois, Michael
Saxton, Andrew
Stephenson, Jim

Don Bell

2006 Result:
Don Bell **
Cindy Silver
Sherry Shaghaghi
Jim Stephenson
Michael Hill

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 buddyface
Can't say I agree with this one. If Saxton pulls this off that will be a big surprise. I don't think the falling Liberal support in BC will affect him that much, and Saxton has not run a good campaign. This is a guy who lost the nomination in Vancouver Quadra for the last election, and now he's going to unseat a popular ex-mayor with no baggage? I'll be surprised if that's the case.
I'm calling Don Bell
08 10 09 Ancastarian
Well. I know this is a debatable prediction. However, I honestly think Don Bell will fall this time. He's scrappy, a former Mayor of vancouver and definitely a good representative, but with his slim margins of victory and Liberal numbers evaporating in BC, expect a close race, but a loss for Bell.
08 10 04 buddyface
This is one of the few BC riding's that the Liberals are going to hold on to. To say that Saxton is organized and well known in the area is to admit that one knows nothing about the politics of this area. The last poster nailed it. Don Bell has steadily increased his voter base each election. He was a long standing mayor and knows the community at the community level. Saxton is a parachute candidate with no grass roots in the community. The NDP candidate is hardly running here because it is known that the unions on the North Shore support Don Bell. This is not a case that the Liberals, or Liberal party is popular here (it isn't). Don Bell is popular here, and that will seal the deal.
08 10 03 Laurence Putnam
As much as a trainwreck as the national Liberal campaign has been - I have to say, I've learned my lesson. I didn't think Don could win in 04, or 06, but Bell's local machine here is truly remarkable.
Saxton has run the best campaign in a long time, but his name equity outside of this campaign is practically zero. While the Conservatives are indisputedly ahead in this campaign overall, there is still a possibility that Saxton can swing this, but I would say if it comes down to just 200 votes, they'll be in Don's favour. Not because this is a Liberal riding, which it isn't, but because Don is Don.
Both campaigns 04 and 06 have started the same; strong start by the Conservatives, huge lead in the sign war, but coming up short on election day.
As even a liberal friend of mine put it, Don is like an old couch, you maybe don't love it, but you're comfortable with it.
If the Liberals fall to 3-4 seats in BC, which I think is a distinct possibility, I think Don will be able to pull this one out one more time.
08 09 27 Jimmy
I once lived in this riding. The demographics in recent years have gone away from the Tories. The large Iranian vote is against Harper (for the most part). A lot of the liberal polling numbers have gone to the Greens. This means there is a better chance of it coming back on polling day. I say Bell has a 50/50 chance of holding this riding.
08 09 26 Cascadia
Saxton is organized, ready and has been campaigning for a couple of years. Bell won in 2004 because Ted White was tired, did not campaign and broke his promise about term limits. This time, the Green candidate is running a strong campaign, has lots of signs and will get many of the collapsing Liberal votes. The Liberals are falling everywhere in BC and Saxton will win here by 5,000 to 10,000 votes.
08 09 23 Canuck
Don Bell represents this riding very well and is everywhere. Saxton will do well because of his party's strength in this election and despite his own lack of experience or knowledge of the community. Bell will take it because he has the experience, knowledge, name recognition and North Vancouverites have always seemed to like to vote against the government. How else could Ted White get elected?
08 09 18 BC Pundit
My home riding.
Don Bell started off the campaign with a minor attack and 67 years old. He should be really considering making a potential 5 year commitment to serve as the MP.
44 year old Andrew Saxton's team had his signs up on the day of the writ drop and he's working the doorsteps.
No significant ND or Green presence in the riding, both having just picked candidates after the campaign had started.
Don will probably get a bit of a lift by the weak parties on his left but the Lib machine won't be able to fear monger over Andrew who has worked in international businesses in Asia.
08 09 18 R.O.
Well not attracting as much attention as West Vancouver riding next door still a competitive race here. The current mp has the incumbent advantage here and managed to get re-elected last time even though liberal government did not. But he is in for a tougher re-election bid this year as liberal party in bc is not doing as good as last time. The carbon tax issue also hurts them here as provincial one not that popular. And federal liberals green shift is proving to be a tough sell. The conservatives have a good candidate nominated here in Andrew Saxton well he may not be as high profile as Don Bell he has a good chance here. But no solid prediction here yet as I suspect this riding will be very close in the end.
08 09 14 MrEd
The most laughable thing I've seen and read to date is that Cindy Silver was attacked for being a religious fanatic... Don Bell attends the same church people... The new candidate is energetic, an economic heavy hitter, and potentially cabinet material.
08 09 12 NV Voter
The NDP has just announced their candidate, an unknown actor named Michael Charrois. Given that their candidate in the previous election, Sherry Shaghaghi, was reasonably strong and had a good base in the Iranian community, I predict this choice will result in more NDP votes going Liberal this time around. This, combined with Don Bell's unsinkable popularity in the riding, should be enough to see him win another term, despite a seemingly more moderate Conservative opponent.
08 09 13
This is a traditionally Conservative riding and if current polling trends hold, it may very well return to the Conservative fold. Andrew Saxton is a heavyweight in terms of financial and economic matters, and this will resonate especially well in the arrival of recent economic turmoil.
08 09 09 Caveman
Don Bell has a strong grass root base in this community and will win the seat again with ease. There is great migration into North Vancouver due to the real estate boom and the area is moving away from Conservative values. There are some tree huggers living in this electoral division who are petrified of the Conservative record on the environment. There are also new home owners with gigantic mortgages who are watching the economy disintegrate under conservative watch and yearn for the good old Martin days. He is going to ring Saxton's Bell, pun intended.
08 09 08 Claire
The Conservatives would love to grab this seat, but I think the North Shore is far too liberal for that to happen, especially with all the development in the lower lonsdale area in the last couple of years and influx of urban dwellers.
08 09 08 Garth Butcher
Don Bell has singlehandedly destroyed the credibility of this site. The election prediction has gone conservative two times in a row and Bell has won. The 90% that the site got in the last election were mostly the easy ones. Try to get this one right this time.
08 09 01 Warren
In the past two elections, Don Bell ran as the mayor against an incumbent MP. Compounded with the fact that he ran with the government, it was obvious that he was the one to beat, not Ted White. Ted may be popular in 2004, but he was running against a mayor equally popular but with an actual machine on the ground working. But this time running, he will be running as the opposition MP just like the incumbent MP he defeated. This will be very close because conservatives have nominated an excellent candidate that people will prefer if they are voting on economy issues. If people are voting as on the confidence of Dion, Bell will not get re-elected. Can Don Bell frame this as his own campaign? Likely, but I would like to think otherwise. Those voting on value issues or economy issues will skip him and I dont think his machine is strong enough to take on a Harper redux.
08 12 30 A.S.
Liberals succeed here as a reincarnated Progressive Conservative party. The question is whether such Martinizing glue will hold in a Stephane Dion era--and a deeper question is whether there'll be fallout from the Blair Wilson affair next door...
07 12 14 R.O.
Too close to call , even though the liberal Don Bell won this the last two elections I’m still going to say conservatives have a chance here. Since the previous results were so close and riding was never liberal during 93-04 and reform/alliance back then instead. When this riding went liberal back in 04 martin spent a lot of time in bc and had high hopes that didn’t really turn out. this was one of the few ridings that did actually go liberal. Think it could really come down to the candidates and general trends in bc
07 05 11 British Columbian
Despite a decline in vote share federally, Don Bell managed to a greater margin of victory in the last election the previous one. In 2004 he unseated the unpopular incumbent Ted White by over 2,000 votes despite predictions that he would lose. Running against a socially conservative candidate in 2006, he again managed to win the seat by over 3,300 votes, despite predictions of defeat. I think that North Vancouver voters are content with their MP, as they were satisfied with his performance as mayor. The Bell-Liberal team ran sound campaigns in both elections, and I expect they will again in the next election. Despite the middle-high income demographic of this riding, I think that the Liberals will gold this riding with fiscally conservative, former mayor Don Bell in another fairly close election.
07 04 16 Steve L.
the whole Conservative nomination process here is in limbo. Nomination procedures have been extended time and time again because nobody knew when there's gonna be an election. (oh yeah so why is seemingly certain about a 2007 election? hmm?)
The most serious setback from all this is that Herb Grubel has currently withdrawn his hat from the ring, so to speak. He might come back, but if he doesn't, whoever gets chosen will have an uphill battle against Don Bell.
The best of the non-Grubel guys are only nominally better than Cindy Silver. She did as good a job in differentiating her religion from her political beliefs as anyone can, and she still lost. The Conservatives need to do more than just pander to the ‘moderate’ axis. Can guys like Andrew Saxton or Kevin Krahn do it? maybe, but I ain't holding my breath.
Bottom line, if Grubel comes back, this riding gets a big fat blue C from me - because, like him or hate him, he's only gonna be a solid contender for a high-profile cabinet or critic post in the next government, whoever forms it. If not, too close to call.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
As for this riding, on paper it should be a strong possibility for the Conservatives, yet in the last two elections Don Bell won both despite the fact everyone predicted he wouldn't win. The reality is although a suburban riding and a reasonably affluent one it is right across the inlet from the Downtown so people here are not as conservative as say out in the Fraser Valley. They may be on economic issues and law and order, but not social issues. If the Tories choose a moderate fiscally conservative but socially progressive candidate, they can retake this, but if they choose another redneck like Ted White or religious fundamentalist like Cindy Silver, Don Bell, who is a Blue Liberal and well liked by his constituents should hold this one.

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