Prediction Changed
09:07 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Hawn, Laurie
New Democratic
Martyn, Donna
Morton, Peggy
Parker, David James
Wachowich, Jim

Laurie Hawn

2006 Result:
Laurie Hawn
Anne McLellan **
Donna Martyn
David J. Parker
Chandra Segaran Swamy
Peggy Morton

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 Daniel Kubik
This one was the most interesting race in Alberta for a long time, and although I never much cared for Anne McLellan, I was amazed by her ability to hold the riding against the onrush of the Reform Party and the Canadian Alliance. Her loss of the riding in 2006 was an event, but the story's over now; the Liberals can no longer use the argument that Alberta needs a voice in government, and they've lost their star candidate.
08 10 04 JKY
While I think there will be a Conservative victory here, I think the race is interesting on a number of fronts. With McLellan gone, I expect the Liberals to finish third (or even fourth). The NDP is more popular than they have ever been in Alta, and I expect that most of that increased support is in the City of Edmonton.
Also Lawrie is not a strong candidate.
I think the dippers will finish a surprisingly strong second here and could even double their 9000 votes from last time.
08 09 23 dls
Without Anne McLellan running again it will be akin to Edmonton-Mill Woods in 2006 rather than Edmonton-Centre 2006... expect Hawn to win by at least 10,000 votes.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Liberals will dream, but there is a reason Anne ain't running again. Edmonton Liberals are disorganized, broke, and demorallized by the provincial election results and Dion's terrible performance. Hawn will win by a larger margin here then 2006, but not much larger.
08 09 07
This riding will stay with the Conservatives in this election. Let's face it: the provincial Conservatives GAINED seats in the last provincial election and improved their share of the votes even in Redmonton. Since the federal Conservatives tend to outperform their provincial counterparts, expect the Conservatives to keep this seat.
08 09 06 John
I was just looking at some poll results on the Globe and Mail, and in the prairies the Conservatives have close to 60% support. Throw in the fact the Conservatives have traditionally been stronger in Alberta than in other prairie provinces. This riding will stay Tory blue.
08 08 30 Steve Smith
I'm a little late to the party, but everybody else here is right. Having this as ?too close to call? is silly; the Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, who was personally popular, lost this riding by thousands of votes last time. What is Wacowich supposed to manage that Landslide Annie couldn't?
08 04 03 R.O.
Back in the liberals good days they were competitive in Edmonton and even won this seat. But as of late they are not doing so good in Alberta one recent poll put them at only 15% in this province. any way you stretch those numbers is not enough for them to make gains here. Former liberal mp Anne Mcellan is also not running here again forcing the liberals to nominate a new candidate Jim Wachowich. The conservatives also have a strong mp in Laurie Hawn which should help. He also ran here in 04 election and well known by now. But this is a urban Edmonton riding and although I?m willing to say it will stay conservative next election it is one that in the future could go to another party but just not at this time.
07 09 30 John
I'll lean conservative here, even though Laurie Hawn has been a bit low profile as far as I can tell. I can't see the riding going NDP, and the Dion Liberals seem to be running into a bit of trouble nationally.
07 09 20 binriso
Since Alberta's been filled with oil, everyone's been 'milking the cow' of Alberta. Harper isnt any different, how do you think he paid for all his equalization increases? At least Dion is honest about that he will do it. Nothing to lose since they have nothing in the province at all.
Not that it matters, CPC are most likely headed for a solid win here with around 50% of the votes. Funny cause the provincial PC's only hold 3/18 of the inner city ridings and none of them represent this riding. Any explanation for this? Taft's Liberals seem even more left wing than Dion but yet they dominate Edmonton provincially.
07 09 15
Dion's comments about ‘milking the cow’ of Alberta basically guaranteed a CPC re-election here.
07 06 18 binriso
Well if you believe it, the CPC are actually down according to some recent polls in Alberta. Not that it matters because they still have like a 45-50 point lead or so and without Annie i doubt the Liberals have much of a chance, although it probably wont be a landslide. You'd be surprised how many Alberta voters would still mention the NEP (National Energy Program of the Trudeau era to share their oil wealth with the rest of Canada) as a reason to vote against the Liberals. Seriously get over it, its been almost 30 years and its been long repealed 23 years ago i believe under Mulroney. Im sorry most of our other provinces were not created (By the Liberal Party no less) sitting on giant oil reserves. Once those reserves run out, you wont be nearly as well off and not much more than all of the rest of the provinces. Western Alienation is really blown out of proportion because it is not really ‘Western’. Alberta is where the vast majority of the complaints come from, BC complains sometimes and Man and Sask much less so. Also, all the provinces complain about everything, but apparently using ‘Western Alienation’ makes it a special case for the West. Calling Western Alienation ‘Alberta Alienation’, although somewhat biased, is not really very far off the mark. Triple-E Senate isnt going to help you much since the east and ONT/QUE can still outvote you on a 6:4 margin on any issues.
Oh and in the election, they'll probably win this seat by like 10 000 votes or something like that unless there is a big shift. Haha i wonder who Alberta would vote for if Harper instituted something like the NEP or something along that line?
07 04 25 A.S.
Weird as this might sound, a seat like this may be worth monitoring for a hypothetically-possible spillover effect from the provincial government's woes, i.e. rather than Landslide Annie saving it for the Liberals, Ed Stelmach handing it over to the Liberals. But, as of now, *only* this seat (and maybe Edmonton-Strathcona vis-a-vis the NDP). A toe in the water rather than a plunge into the unknown...
07 04 22 N. Grant
Had Anne McLellan decided to run again, the Liberals would have had a shot at taking Centre back. Jim Wacowich will be a strong candidate and it may even be closer than some predicted, but I'm not sure the Libs can do it. Wait an see.
07 04 22 G. Kennedy (not that one)
As has already been stated, this riding went Liberal because of Anne McLellan, not because of the Liberal Party. Now with a relatively unknown Liberal candidate, Hawn seems safe. Only a MAJOR swing away from the Conservatives could do him in.
07 04 21 Ryan N
'Landslide Anne' carried this riding on name recognition only. She was 1 of only 2 Alberta Liberal voices for much of the time, while they were in government. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, you might as well just paint Alberta entirely blue already!
07 04 10 Calev
I think this will go Conservative fairly easily. Last time Anne came close because SHE was popular not the Liberals. I think her biggest mistake in the last election is that she didn’t run as an independent. And now with her not running anymore, I can’t see this going anything but CONS by a larger margin.
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
Jim Wachowich, a consumer advocate lawyer who helped fight energy deregulation in Alberta has won the Liberal nomination. Donna Martyn, a Teacher and Disabled Persons advocate has won the NDP nomination for a second time. But both are very unlikely to defeat Hawn in this political climate.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
With much of the growth in the downtown area and this being less right wing than other Alberta ridings it could go Liberal if Anne McLellan runs again as she was very popular in her riding, even amongst those who didn't vote for her. I know some Tory supporters from this riding who said she was a good MP and they would vote for her if she weren't a Liberal. However, if she doesn't run again, then the Tories should have little trouble holding this one.
07 03 25 GM
This riding used to go Liberal because Edmonton liked 'Landslide Annie'. Unfortunately for the Liberals, there's no one like her around there anymore.

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