Prediction Changed
3:17 PM 27/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Calgary West
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Anders, Rob
New Democratic
Phelps Bondaroff, Teale
Pollock, Jennifer
Schmidt, Kirk
Vachon, André
Weeks, Randy

Rob Anders

2006 Result:
Rob Anders **
Jennifer Pollock
Danielle Roberts
Teale Phelps Bondaroff
Tim Cayzer
André Vachon

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Authorized by the official agent of Kirk Schmidt

08 10 08 Daniel Kubik
Rob Anders public gaffes so many and so well publicized that I won't even bother to discuss them specifically. There's the Walter Wakula thing, of course. His staffers hate him so much he ended up in a legal dispute with one of them.
None of this matters in the slightest. Not only does Anders carry the Conservative banner, Jennifer Pollock is tragic. In Thursday's Calgary Herald, Pollock got herself quoted as saying that men ‘must convince women to have more children’; Anders will win and he will win big. This seat might be available to an independent or a Liberal in a future election, but it needs a real candidate.
08 10 08 Spence
Although the riding constituents like myself are not enamoured by Anders, the Liberals are not popular enough in this riding, and even in most of Canada to change the outcome we always seem to see in Calgary West.
08 09 25 Sylvius
I used to work for Rob Anders. He's a lunatic, and he's not a very good politician (calling Nelson Mandela a terrorist is not going to win friends, no matter how correct you might be). Were I voting in this riding, I'd vote for Schmidt.
But there is absolutely zero chance that this riding goes anywhere other than to the Conservatives.
07 10 17 get real
What on earth has the editorial board got against Rob Anders and Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton Strathcona? I mean I understand that these candidates may not be liked by many (might they be partisan opponents?) I just find it too hard to believe that this riding in particular is too close to call
I mean a 24000 (that's right folks 24 THOUSAND) vote lead is shaky???
There is no scandal, Anders hasn't said anything this parliament that his constituents haven't turned a deaf ear to before.
Turn out the lights folks this is called within minutes of polls closing whenever the election is called. By having this too close to call you are eroding the nobility of this forum. Move it into the win column and change your mind if some REAL reason comes to the surface. Until that unlikely change calling this TCTC is like saying Brittany Spears is a great mom.
07 10 17 T.V.
Now that I've got your attention - I don't think the Greens are actually going to win the seat. That being said, I think they have real potential to do very well. Like in the Ontario election riding of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, a strong Green candidate can pick up huge numbers of conservative protest voters. I can't imagine any riding with potentially more of those than Rob Anders'. I would bet that they'll finish a very strong second, with the other parties well behind. If they run a really strong campaign, they have as good a chance of winning here as in any other riding in the country, as long as the independent doesn't split too much of the protest vote.
07 09 09 Nick J Boragina
I would like to ask the editors the following. If this riding is so close to call, who is the person or party that threatens to defeat the Conservatives? Is it Kirk Schmidt? He’s the only person who could come close because he’s not a Liberal, not an NDPer, and not a Green Party member. Despite that I doubt he’ll top 5% of the vote, much less the 40% he’d need to win in this traditionally big C Conservative riding. I say Big C Conservative, because even during the Reform-Alliance era, the (Progressive) Conservative Party was able to hold it’s own in Calgary, even if they did not come all to close to winning. I don’t see anyone who could beat the tories, and so I feel they will win again.
07 08 07 A.S.
Perhaps a bit farfetched, but one wonders if the unpopularity of Ed Stelmach's PCs in Calgary might have a ripple effect federally--most especially in a seat perceived to have defective representation, like this. Good alibi to vote against Anders? (The Alliance's two '00 Ontario seats were in a byproduct of ‘defective Liberal representation’, remember.) NB: Anders' first Liberal opponent, back in '97, was none other than Dave Bronconnier, present Calgary mayor and, some would say, future Alberta Liberal leader or even *premier*...
07 07 18 binriso
Well I just read a little bit about Rob Anders on Wikipedia. Seems like quite a nutcase. I really don’t think the CPC could lose here but then again, there is still 42% of the riding that voted for other parties. If they could rally around another candidate and if the Independent took off a big chunk of the CPC votes the Liberals could win this riding. But I don’t see it happening.
I’m beginning to think that if Satan ran under the CPC banner he would win 50% in this riding and win by a landslide.
Also Irwin Cotler got 66% of the votes in his riding, where as Rob Anders got 58%. Theres usually many more voters in Alberta ridings and no doubt they'll get at least 4 new ones in a couple years because of their growth.
07 05 01 S. G. Badger
Even Conservatives like myself dislike Rob Anders but he somehow seems to avoid both defeat and humiliation, somehow the people of Calgary West manage to stand him, I will never understand it.
07 04 22 G. Kennedy (not that one)
I can't believe this is still being marked too close to call. Rob Anders may be one of the worst MPs in the country but he is a Conservative and this is Calgary, where they garnered. The NDP, Greens and Liberals have zero chance of winning and we all know it. As for Schmidt, he is running a serious campaign and may very well come in second. But to win, he would have to get half of Anders' likely is that?
Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see Anders gone. But as has already been said, the only way to do that is through a nomination battle as Calgary is not going to elect anybody but a Conservative.
07 04 21 Ryan N
Calgary is the heart of western Conservative support. Regardless of who's nominated, the candidate will win easily in the next general election.
07 04 19 Daniel
This riding is NOT too close to call. Independent candidate or not, Anders would have to lose 15,000 votes before he could get anywhere NEAR the possibility of defeat. No independent candidate is going to siphon off that kind of number, and the Liberals surely aren't going to win in the heart of Harper's Calgary fortress. The only seats in Alberta where the Conservatives are even remotely vulnerable are in Edmonton, and even those aren't as endangered as the opposition would like to believe.
Even if the Conservatives tumble so far that they lose the next election, any seat loss in Alberta will come in Edmonton, not Calgary.
07 04 16 MS
A lot of people in Calgary West do not like Anders but he's the only non-Liberal non-NDP option they've had. So, yes, if Wakula wins the nomination (or any other non-Anders), the seat will safely go Conservative.
However, with the Income Trust issue playing on Calgarians' minds (consider how Jason Kenney's town hall got hijacked by the CAITI), as well as Anders being who he is, it is possible (albeit not a HUGE chance) that an Independent could do some damage. Considering there's an independent running, it could be at least an interesting riding to watch.
07 04 13 GM
As I stated earlier, the only battle in this riding is for the nomination - the farther left the Liberals go, the worse chance they even have of getting 15% and getting their deposit back.
This prediction HAS to be marked Conservative - if you don't believe that a potted plant running for the Conservatives would still get 30,000+ votes in Calgary, then you might as well consider Mount Royal to be Too Close To Call. After all, Irwin Cotler for the Liberals in Mount Royal ONLY got 24,000 compared to Anders' 38,000+ votes in 2006!
CONSERVATIVE LOCK, just not a lock for Anders.
07 04 08 joe
Rock solid Tory seat. Only way to knock off Anders is though a nomination battle.
07 03 24 Daniel
Rob Anders may not be well-liked, but he still trounced his nearest opponent by more than a 2-to-1 margin in the last election. This Conservative nomination controversy's importance doesn't stem from the fact that someone else may have a better shot at keeping the seats for the CPC - it's because the person who wins the CPC nom will almost assuredly become MP.
07 03 25 S.G.
This riding isn't going anything but Conservative. Despite the fact there is controversy over Anders nomination, he would have to do something crazy - even crazier than he normally does, for a conservative candidate in Calgary to lose. If he ends up not being the candiate, then the the tories definitely win even easier than before.
07 03 25 GM
Rob Anders probably would have won this riding, but now that his acclimation as the Conservative candidate has been judicially overturned, it opens the door for Walter Wakula to step in. The former riding president should take the nomination and then easily win more votes than Anders just on the lack of controversy. This area contains some well-off neighbourhoods like Springbank, Coach Hill, Strathcona, and Crestmont - they'll give Wakula about 40,000 votes for an easy win.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Rob Anders is not well liked here and if we had American style elections where we elect local representatives separate from the PM, he would be toast. Calgary may be a right wing city, but they aren't all rednecks. Explain why Ted Morton who is an Anders clone finished behind Dinning and Stelmach in Calgary in the Alberta PC leadership race. This will go Tory simply because they want a Conservative government and voting for Anders is the only way to get it.

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