Prediction Changed
10:37 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Calgary Centre-North
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Askin, Peggy
New Democratic
Chan, John
Donovan, Eric
James, Doug
McNeil, Jason E.
Prentice, Jim

Hon. Jim Prentice

2006 Result:
Jim Prentice **
John Chan
Matthew Moody
Mark MacGillivray
Michael Falconar
Doug Dokis
Margaret Peggy Askin
James S. Kohut

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 Daniel Kubik
Here's the long story: Jim Prentice is one of the only Conservative candidates who actually bothered or was permitted to show up for the candidate forums here in Calgary. Several posters have mentioned that he is one of Harper's best ministers, or at least he's perceived that way. He's one of the last red Tories; not only a former PC but a leader's candidate himself.
Here's the short story: Prentice's eloquence and credentials would make him a lock in 905 Ontario. He is not running in Ontario.
08 09 25 Karl Smyth
Jim Prentice will hold this riding, no problem whatsoever. There's a good chance that Prentice may be the front-runner to replace Harper as PM when the time comes.
08 09 15 Micheal J
There is with little doubt the riding will go to Mr. Prentice who the past two elections has secured more than half the popular vote (Source: Wikipedia). While Mr. Prentice is a much more desirable PC candidate than say Rob Anders, the fact that Mr. Prentice spearheaded Bill C-61 (the new copyright act) is why he will lose a good deal of votes - enough to lose no, but a dip below his previous recorded numbers most definitely. I expect from my own unscientific sampling of a handful of people I know that most of the protest votes will go to the Green party further bolstering the party.
08 08 27 loabn
To begin, Jim Prentice is a media darling throughout the country. That fact cannot escape his constituents. He is widely viewed as one of the most effective cabinet members and most of his announcements have been major successes for the Conservatives. Though I personally think that his stance on copyright is archaic and not in the best interest of Canadians, it seems that most of the press coverage is positive.
Second, according to the Liberal website there is currently no Liberal candidate for Calgary Centre-North. Calgary Centre-North is widely viewed as a Red Tory riding and a strong Liberal candidate may have a (very remote, black-magic aided) chance of unseating a Tory. There is no groundwork being laid, there is no candidate-specific strategy being crafted. I fail to see how the Liberals can even expect to match last election's performance.
Finally, Jim Prentice is a possible successor to Harper. There was an opinion piece in the Globe on June 6, 2008 about this and the case is strong. He has Harper's trust and his ear. In Calgary, even in the Red areas, that means something.
08 01 31 John Johnson
This is Calgary, the Conservatives are doing good in government and Jim Prentice is a top cabinet minister for Stephen Harper, he should have no trouble getting re-elected.
07 12 21 binriso
Well outside of Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton East, this’d be the first riding to go NDP if they ever were in a position to win 3-4 seats. The provincial NDP actually won 2 seats here in 1986 and 1989 and were actually somewhat strong in urban Calgary back in the day (you couldnt tell that now though i dont even think any of their provincial Calgary candidates managed 10% in the last election). Basically im thinking the only way the NDP will ever win is if the CPC elects a leftist Quebec leader who turns out to be a separatist and the NDP runs an amazingly strong candidate, the Liberals and Greens run terrible candidates and the NDP have an Albertan as their national leader. Not so likely. Even then, its Alberta so the CPC will probably win regardless. There’s likely a 20000-25000 vote difference here next time (at least) and the possibility of a Green 2nd place result as well.
07 11 07 tducey
There is no way this riding is going to go any way but CPC on election day, Prentice is a great minister, probably the top minister that Harper has and Prentice could be a future CPC leader, easy hold for the CPC.
07 11 03 A.S.
Keep in mind that with CC-N, we're talking more about the heart of the Canadian conservative *label*--remember: this is Calgary's version of an inner-city riding, a large part of this is the 2000 Joe Clark zone, and as an ex-PC leadership contender himself, Jim Prentice is squarely in the 'progressive' wing of the Alberta Tory caucus, as his constituency-conscious stance on SSM proves. Which means, he already usurps a great deal of the reason for voters to vote otherwise; or if they vote otherwise, they'll do so provincially. Though yes, the NDP leanings are somewhat noteworthy--in a very vague way, this is what passes for a Trinity-Spadina to Calgary Centre's Toronto Centre, trendy Kensington neighbourhood and all...
07 10 14
To the poster who prediction an NDP win here, I'd just like to say that it is a ‘cute’ prediction. NDP candidate John Chan has only jumped from up spots each election due to his gaining of a few ‘nickel and dime’ votes- meaning he only gained a 1 or 2 thousand votes at the expense of the LIBERALS, not the Conservatives. Jim Prentice will easily retake this seat, a professional political analyst could tell you this while sleeping. John Chan will not be able to overcome the 40% or 22 000 vote difference to win the riding, not here in Calgary the heart of Canadian conservatism.
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
Not that the idea of an NDPer winning in Calgary is crazy, as it might happen one day, but to suggest that day is soon is not really logical in my opinion. The NDP would need to be polling very well in Alberta, and across the country, to win an Edmonton riding, much less a Calgary one. If they do ever get to those poll numbers, though, this will be the first Calgary riding that will flip their way. Until then, the CPC has this one locked.
07 06 23 Paul Griffin
John Chan has gone from 4th to 3rd to 2nd. There is only one place to go and that's not 5th. John is a very likeable and charismatic person and the more voter contact he gets, the more votes he gets. John certainly gave Jim Prentice a run for his money last election - 20th Avenue was swamped with NDP lawn signs.
John Chan will be capitalizing on a weak Liberal candidate as the Liberals will most likely run a strong candidate in another Calgary riding (likely Calgary West aganst Rob Anders; it may turn out like in the Calgary Elbow by-election). This time there will be strategic voting as Liberal voters will be voting NDP to block the Conservative vote.
Unfortenately, the Greens will again be steeling votes away from John and the NDP. This could hamper his chances of winning this time but their is always the next time...
As more and more Calgary Centre-North voters meet John on the doorsteps, John can only increase in popularity.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Being in Calgary already makes it pretty safe for the Conservatives, but the fact Jim Prentice is a moderate and old PC types helps in this more moderately conservative riding where Conservatives don't tend to be hard right like they are in the neighbouring ridings.
07 03 25 GM
Prentice is probably the most centered-PCers in the Conservative caucus, is very visible in the cabinet and is a tactful speaker. All of it plays well in this riding in more developed neighbourhoods like Bridgeland, Tuxedo and Sunnyside. 30,000+ votes for Prentice in an easy win.

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