08 02 26	65.87.235.7
Still too close to call, but two events since last I posted work to the NDP's advantage. - Carol Skelton isn't running again. No incumbency advantage for the Conservatives and, depending who they nominate, the name recognition advantage is likely to be to Nettie. - The provincial NDP government was defeated. Historically, the NDP do better federally in Saskatchewan when they are out of power provincially. Finally, Daniel's comparison between Jack Layton and Tommy Douglas is a load of tripe. Tommy led the NDP through four federal elections. In the first three, the NDP were shut out in Saskatchewan. So far, Layton hasn't yet matched Tommy's failure rate.
	08 02 14	A.S. 99.233.96.153
2006's top Sask NDP prospect is even further on top now as an open seat and w/Nettie Wiebe reoffering--but boy, is it polarized; the provincial-leadership heart of NDP Saskatoon, plus joints like Rosetown and Biggar which vote defiantly like they have no business whatsoever belonging to an NDP riding. And it's hard to say how much the Dippers' resilience is more like residual momentum from the Chris Axworthy years; like Wiebe (who, unlike Axworthy, is on the left of the party) had no business doing as well as she did last time. Which doesn't mean she can't win now; but remember: Axworthy first scored in a surprise upset of none other than PC cabinet minister and future G-G Ray Hnatyshyn. If one predicted *then* that the successor seat would one be the best NDP seat in Sask, that would've been an eye-roller, indeed...
	07 12 09	CM 207.47.221.126
It is very odd how low voter turnout was last election. After all, much more than 29 275 live in this riding. This may come down to who has the most volunteers on e-day to get supporters out to vote.
	07 11 24	Daniel 156.34.74.171
The pragmatist in me says ‘too close to call,’ but my gut says ‘probable Conservative hold.’ With Lorne Calvert's NDP being turfed from office provincially, I don't think that the equalization issue will be a deal breaker for the Conservatives in Saskatchewan(as some earlier commentators had predicted)- Calvert won't have the profile to make it an issue, and Brad Wall certainly won't be campaigning against Harper on it. Also noteworthy is that, ever since Jack Layton became NDP leader, the party hasn't won a single federal seat in Saskatchewan - the province in which it was born. The ‘Ontario urbanite’ flavour of socialism espoused by Layton's NDP is a poor match for the Tommy Douglas/Ed Broadbent ‘populist everyman’ variety that allowed the NDP to do so well here in the past. Additionally, Saskatchewan's economy is at the beginning of a boom, so I don't see this seat flipping to the NDP based on general malcontent/protest vote, either. Maybe if Nettie Wiebe runs a vigorous campaign, and the Conservative candidate runs a lacklustre one, this will go NDP, but the notion that Wiebe will waltz to vitory based on name recognition alone is a stretch.
	07 11 17	Stevo 70.53.77.49
Carol Skelton's departure certainly opens the door for the NDP, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Saskatchewan is not a very socialist-friendly place these days and Jack Layton is finding it near-impossible to connect with voters outside the largest cities. As Saskatchewan's economy booms and entrenches its Have-Province status, NDP fortunes will diminish even further. Given traditional Liberal weakness in the province, the Tories will more of less have the field to themselves. At this point, too close to call in Sask-Rosetown-Biggar, but the edge remains with the Conservatives.
	07 09 25	Christopher 70.64.2.19
With Carol Skelton announcing her departure from politics this riding is prime for a Nettie Wiebe/NDP pick up. Nettie has been out canvassing in the rural and urban parts of the riding while the Conservatives are yet to pick a replacement for Ms Skelton. Carol's personal popularity was one of the reason's the Conservatives were able to hold on to this seat. We'll have to wait and see who the Conservatives decide to run, until then I'd say Too Close to Call with an NDP advantage especially if Saskatoon City Councilor Maurice Neault ends up with the Conservative Nomination.
	07 08 08	SaskPhoenix 198.169.112.254
Things have just got even more interesting with the recent announcement made by Conservative MP Carol Skelton. Skelton announced that she will not be seeking re-election in the next election, and that means it suddenly opens the door for the NDP to reclaim the seat they lost to Skelton two elections ago. The NDP's chances of winning this riding have just skyrocketed due to Skelton's departure *and* the Conservatives' growing unpopularity in Saskatchewan over the broken equalizement payments promises. Harper will be very hard-pressed to find a non-polarizing representative from Saskatchewan to sit at the cabinet table - that shows how big of shoes Skelton has left for the next Saskatchewan cabinet rep to fill. Time to call this NDP for Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar.
	07 08 08	R.D. 12.4.238.25
With Carol Skelton announcing she will not run again, I think the path is clear for Nettie Wiebe to be elected to parliament and restore some federal NDP representation to Saskatchewan.
	07 08 04	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.12.178.107
Skelton will not be seeking re-election. Great news for the NDP as it was her hard work and popularity that largely keep them out of this riding for sometime. Saskatchewan premier Calvert had wondered, ‘...is part of Carol's decision related to the recent polling that shows the Conservative party in Saskatchewan taking the steepest decline anywhere in the country?’ We wonder that too. Moot point, she's not running. We think that the NDP, if they can keep their polling numbers up, can take this riding now. A lot depends on when the election is called and if the CPC has rebounded at all by that time. Still plenty of ‘Ifs’ to make a definitive call, but now we say the slight advantage is to the NDP.
	07 06 26	SaskPhoenix 198.169.112.254
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
	07 06 16	binriso 156.34.222.118
Probably a CPC win but the NDP could easily win this with any sort of swing. Any chance they could convince Jim Pankiw to run here and split up the right wing vote? That would be interesting. Guess there is a lot of pent up racism to vote for Pankiw in some areas of the province.
	07 06 01	MDF+ 65.87.235.135
This is really the only seat in Saskatchewan where the NDP have a realistic shot this go round. The two Regina seats where they should have had a chance (Regina - Lumsden - Lake Centre and Regina - Qu'Appelle) they've essentially surrendered to weak Tory incumbents by nominating even weaker candidates. Anyway - Nettie is a strong candidate, and was the closest New Democrat to a win last time. However, I don't see enough NDP grwoth for her to pick it up. The ONLY thing working to Nettie's advantage is the Carol Skelton has damaged her own credibility by being the invisible Minister. They showed her picture to the journalist panel on Mike Duffy Live and no one knew who she was. The best hope for the NDP is if the federal election is off until sometime in 2008, so that Saskatchewan voters will have had the opportunity to vent their spleen on the provincial NDP. Nettie could pull it off if she didn't have to contend with the provincial NDP's baggage. That said, while Carol Skelton is the most vulnerable Tory in Saskatchewan, she'll probably survive.
	07 05 19	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.54.70.128
Latest poll has the Conservatives down 8% with the NDP up 8% in western Canada. Same poll has Greens down 3% and Liberals up 3%. With numbers like that, a riding this close last time very easily has the potential to flip NDP. Skelton definitly has a following and people may vote for her as opposed to the party, but an equally well known NDP candidate can negate that. Especially if the Sask government is still crying foul over the budget when an election is called.
	07 04 17	DMD 71.17.148.162
Granted, Ms Skelton has been less than a Cabinet superstar. She is nonetheless a very likable and well-liked, sincere Parliamentarian, and an actual bona fide Saskatoon-area Cabinet minister (and when was the last time there was one of those?). I know her margins have been tight, but I frankly expect her to hold the seat with a wider spread next time out, on the basis of her Cabinet status and its ability to sway more LPC votes in Saskatoon who like the idea of a seat at the table.
	07 04 10	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
Of the four Saskatoon ridings, this is the most vulnerable and could potentially go NDP. It was the only one of the four Saskatoon ridings where the Tories lost the Saskatoon portions of the riding, but still won due to massive wins in the rural sections. While I expect the rural area to go solidly conservative again, the Wheat Board changes could cost them up to 10% of the vote in the rural sections, which would be enough to put the riding in jeopardy if the Tories fall out of favour in Saskatoon.
	07 04 08	free_thinker 208.101.105.184
This is one of the closer ridings in the province but there is still little chance for Carol Skelton to loose. She is one of Stephen Harper's favourite MPs and she is consistently seen as one of the hardest working Members of Parliament. Skelton will hold this riding regardless of who the challenger is.
	07 04 04	Stevo 66.11.64.1
Commentators on this site wrote Carol Skelton's political obituary in both the 2004 and 2006 elections, and she won comfortably both times against a well-respected NDP challenger. There is no evidence to suggest that she will not do likewise in the next election whenever it is called. Although she lacks much of a profile, she is one of the hardest-working MPs in the House of Commons and is a personal favourite of Harper. Jack Layton's NDP has very little of the appeal in Saskatchewan that Ed Broadbent's NDP did. Victory to Ms. Skelton.
	07 03 31	Rey D.R. 130.15.234.201
Definte edge to Skelton here as she is a sitting cabinet minister (National Revenue). However she has been quite invisible in the cabinet, for instance when Gerry Ritz got promoted to a Jr. Cabinet post in January, Leon Benoit MP for Vegreville-Wainwright said that ‘Saskatchewan needed a minister and Gerry was the obvious choice’, of course they already had one in Skelton. The NDP always are a factor here, and they always seem to target this riding, but it is unlikely they will win. However, depending on who the NDP nominate and the national campaign, under the right set of cirumstances they may be able to take the riding. I'll say its TCTC with a clear edge to Skelton.
	07 03 28	Angry Ontarian 24.36.172.204
Carol Skelton's only threat is the NDP. However, socialist fortunes have sunk since the last election. And being Harper's Cabinet Minister for Saskatchewan, voters here will want to keep her regardless of how the province votes.