08 05 31	T.V. 207.219.39.131
For the first time in many years, voters in the riding who have voted for Bill Blaikie will have to look at voting for parties instead. While other parties (the Liberals in particular) will see a big jump, the strong organization built up over many elections by the NDP will likely keep the riding for them.
	07 06 26	Stevo 66.11.64.1
Binriso's weird rant about Mike Harris in this thread of a Manitoba riding was quite amusing, as was his apparent belief that working-class adults are stupid enough to be ?manipulated? en masse. Elmwood-Transcona is ripe for Oshawa-fi-cation - don't discount this riding going Tory should someone of binriso's attitudes run under the NDP banner.
	07 06 08	binriso 156.34.226.75
Id have to say that the NDP will win again here. Buoyed by the provincial NDP's success in Winnipeg and the fact that the Manitoba PC's got owned in Winnipeg during the election all signs point to a NDP hold. Although the working class can be manipulated into voting Conservative, against logic, as we can see with Mike Harris in 1995. Instead of taking a couple weeks of unpaid vacation to pay for our finances, we are just going to cut a crapload of jobs and other services. (20 000 jobs cut, various hospitals closed and funding cuts everywhere, at least we got a tax cut of a few hundred bucks but we dont have a hospital in our town or jobs anymore or good unemployement insurance to make up for that, the teachers are on strike and god knows what else.) I bet alot of them regretted voting for him now. This should stay NDP. Hopefully anyways....
	07 05 19	A.S. 74.99.222.209
It's true that the Blaikie factor has, in ‘Doer Democrat’ fashion, artificially depressed the fed Liberal vote in recent elections (just compare Liberal results in the rest of Winnipeg; also cf. how Ed Schreyer cratered the Selkirk-Interlake Grit vote in '06). Therefore, by default, the Liberals are the most likely beneficiaries in a post-Blaikie era--but, win? Given the hurdles they have to jump, it'd have to take Gary Doer pulling a Bob or Ujjal and going Federal Grit. And as for older/wealthier, the Dippers seem to suit those affluent Annex and Riverdale greybeards just fine, so why not here. Oh, monitor that Tory vote carefully, given the result last time--at least in case of a 3-way...
	07 05 10	Incisive Logic 143.161.248.25
Easy NDP win here, no matter who they run. Blaikie won a majority last election. The Conservatives were a distant second, and the Liberals won a mere 4,100 votes. I assume that most liberal voters voted for the candidate, and only die-hard Liberals voted Liberal. Without Blaikie, the NDP will inevitably bleed a few votes, but not to the Conservatives. And the Liberals have nothing to lose to begin with. Conservative votes would need to come entirely from increased turnout, and much of that is probably dormant Liberal vote. The dynamics will certainly change in this riding without Blaikie, but it will still go NDP.
	07 05 13	Observer 205.200.75.122
This riding has changed a lot since Blaikie was first elected. It is wealthier and older now. The Liberals have not run a solid campaign in the riding since 1993, but now they will again. If they have a good candidate, they will dedicate a lot of resources there and probably win.
	07 04 09	Stevo 74.102.113.20
Working-class inner-suburban...sort of like Oshawa, eh? Granted, Oshawa isn't inner, but is a large town in and of itself. And Oshawa also has a strong Liberal presence to split the left-wing vote, whereas Elmwood-Transcona - as in much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan - is a fight between the NDP and the Tories, with the Liberals a distant, almost insignificant third. I believe this riding will be decided on the kind of candidate the NDP finds. If they run another down-to-earth, not overly partisan, do-gooder like Bill Blaikie, the NDP will win. In other words, they need an Ed Broadbent New Democrat. If, however, they decide to run an overly pro-union champagne socialist *a la* Jack Layton and David Miller who spends the campaign shaking his/her fist at Stephen Harper and going on about Kyoto, the Conservatives will surprise everyone by picking up this seat. I will assume that the powers that be in Jack Layton's office are well aware of this, and will be looking hard for another friendly & folksy chap like Blaikie, so as a result I will give the definite edge to the New Democrats. But this is one to watch.
	07 04 08	free_thinker 208.101.105.184
This is a tough one. Since Blaikie has been there for 30 years, it’s hard to tell if this is an NDP riding or a Bill Blaikie riding. With that said, I give the NDP a leg up because of the organization that is has. However, if you note the vote totals from last time - some of Blaikies support goes Liberal, a very small portion Conservative and most will stay NDP. If the NDP can limit its losses to 4000 it should be able to hold it. Anything more than 4000 vote loss by the NDP will result in a Conservative pick up due to vote splitting. For the time being this should be to close to call - but look for a harder prediction closer to election day.
	07 04 03	St. Paul's Progressive 130.63.123.68
Bill Blaikie is a highly respected MP and it is unfortunate to hear he is retiring. But this riding should stay NDP. This is after all, working class inner-suburban Winnipeg, an NDP stronghold.
	07 03 31	Rey D.R. 130.15.234.201
I have to disagree with everyone's posting here so far... since Bill Blaikie has held the riding for almost the last 30 yrs, its hard to tell whether it was his personal popularity or the NDP popularity that kept him in office. Now we all know that that Bill Blaikie is one of the most respected and personally popular MPs in Canada and that the Northside of Winnipeg is considered to be a very safe NDP area. The area now comprising Elmwood-Transcona voted NDP long before Mr. Blaikie arrived. However since, Mr. Blaikie has been there for almost 30 yrs. I think its simply too hard to gauge how much of that support was personal popularity and how much of that was party affiliation. I have to agree with DL, this seems like the kind of seat where every NDPer in Winnipeg would be lining up to take a crack. But until that person is nominated and until we get close to an election I think its remains TCTC, with the NDP with a significant edge.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
With Bill Blaikie not running again, this riding is not quite as safe as it was with him. He was extremely popular and gained many votes for his personal appeal as opposed to his party. Still this is generally an NDP area and unless the Liberals run a really strong candidate, the NDP should hold it. If the Liberals run a really strong candidate, they could either take it or allow the Conservatives to slip up the middle (they got 32% last time around so a few percentage points here and a three way split could do it). Still I am 80% sure it will stay NDP.
	07 03 29	C B 216.221.81.97
I humbly disagree with previous predictions here. This is a riding that for 30 years or so voted for Bill Blaikie, not the NDP. If the Tories run Linda West again, she will probably win with vote splitting on the left, particularly now that the Tories are in majority territory. This one should at the very least be too close to call, however, I think many will be shocked when it falls to the Conservatives.
	07 03 27	Nick J Boragina 74.99.228.118
Bill Blaikie has announced he is stepping aside and not running after 30 or so years in parliament. While it almost certainly means the NDP is going to drop in vote here, I dont think it will add up to a defeat. Provincially these areas have been fairly left-wing, even when the tories win government. the NDP will be able to take much of the vote here, especially if Blaikie takes an active role supporting his successor. I would not be surprised to see some vote bleed towards the Liberals and Conservatives, but I would be surprised if the NDP did not win this one.
	07 03 25	DL 142.162.144.27
Another supersafe NDP seat. Blaikie is retiring and just about every prominent New Democrat in Winnipeg is thinking of taking a shot at the nomination since the only real race will be for the NDP nomination.
	07 03 20	JFBreton 132.204.214.153
Le vote néo-démocrate est grugé par le vote vert dans de nombreuses régions du pays. Ceci dit, si un comté doit demeurer néo-démocrate au Manitoba, c'est bien le comté de Blaikie. Victoire du NPD sans trop de problèmes ici.