Prediction Changed
11:13 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

York West
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Capra, Nick
New Democratic
Manfrini, Giulio
Nguyen, Kevin
Sgro, Judy

Hon. Judy Sgro

2006 Result:
Judy Sgro **
Parm Gill
Sandra Romano Anthony
Nick Capra
Axcel Cocon

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 24 MH
Conservatives are almost an endangered species in YW, and the NDP are not much stronger. The Liberals have held this seat since Red Kelly took it from the Tories in 1962. The NDP mounted a threat in 1972 but fell several thousand votes short. The last time the Conservatives came within 6,000 votes of winning was in 1984, when Brian Mulroney swept the country. This may not be the safest Liberal seat in Canada, but it is surely very close.
08 09 07 R.O.
This one will stay liberal and Judy Sgro not in any serious danger. Whats interesting is during the last election this was the riding where then liberal leader Paul Martin came to announce the hand gun ban policy in the high crime area of jane and finch. Which looking back was one of the more shocking policy events of the last election campaign. But sort of old news now although still an issue which is out there. But the race here itself is not that competitive really.
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
The CHP (Christian Heritage Party) actually had quite a respectable showing here in 2004. Regardless, they ended up with only 1,580 votes. The reality remains, however, that York West is the Mount Royal of Ontario. This is a bedrock Liberal riding. Sgro, liked or not liked, won’t change that result. The Liberals could run a ventriloquist's dummy here and it would win. This is a solid red riding plain and simple.
07 05 26 King of Kensington
This very working class, ethnically diverse, inner-suburban Toronto riding is one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. Having a grade-F MP doesn't make a difference.
I don't really see Stevo's point about Sgro being the Cheryl Gallant of the Left though. Sgro isn't particularly ‘left’ by Liberal Party standards - in fact she opposed gay marriage.
07 04 09 Brian Appel
All kidding aside, this riding will stay Liberal for a long time. Judy wins here with ‘Tory in Alberta’ type margins.
07 04 08 A.S.
Believe it or not, the Conservatives under Parm Gill *did* manage a reasonable (if perhaps largely ‘giveaway’) lawn-sign campaign last time, and landed a solid 2nd for their efforts--of course, signs, even lawn signs, don't vote, and ‘solid 2nd’ in these parts = high teens...
07 04 07 Stevo
Safest Liberal riding in Ontario, both federally and provincially. No NDP presence as there is downtown, and each election campaign you could count the number of Conservative lawn signs in this riding on one hand. The housing projects *a la* Jane and Finch (not to mention the peep-show proprietors) will come out en masse to vote for Judy Sgro, the Cheryl Gallant of the Liberal Party (and ironically enough, while Sgro occupies the safest Liberal seat in the province, Gallant arguably occupies the safest Conservative seat). Now let's see if my little jab at Sgro makes it past the Liberal moderator of this site...seeing as my comment in the York-Centre thread about Ken Dryden was ‘mysteriously’ lost in the shuffle...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Like most other ridings along Highway 401 in the 416, this will go Liberal in a landslide. Say what you want about Judy Sgro, but even a monkey running under the Liberal banner could win here.

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