Prediction Changed
6:37 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Carcasole, Lou
Hall Findlay, Martha
Karns, Jake
Michael, Bernadette
Progressive Canadian
Roudgarnia, Bahman
New Democratic
Wallace, Susan

Martha Hall Findlay

2006 Result:
Jim Peterson **
Jovan Boseovski
Rochelle Carnegie
Sharolyn Vettese

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 28 MH
The number of easy Liberal holds will not be large on October 14, but Willowdale will be one of them. None of the other candidates looks like much of a challenge to Martha Hall-Findlay. She doubled the Conservative candidate's vote in the by-election last March and seems likely to repeat the feat.
08 05 23 R.O.
Looking back at the by-election here maybe we?re overlooking a few things. First off I was not that surprised when Martha Hall Findlay won as she had been planning to run in this riding for months. and even though Maureen Harquail did not win she did not do that bad compared to the conservative candidate in Toronto centre. Also this riding is not that suburban anymore as dozens of new condos have been built and they tend to be places where the liberals do well. The way the by-elections in Toronto were covered in the media did not really create a lot of awareness of the other candidates if you remember the media and some high profile liberals like Bob Rae were even predicting they?d win all 4. the by-elections also lacked major local issues or anything to increase voter interest or turnout as well. But Martha is likely safe here for the time being also not sure who plans to run here when the next election comes.
08 04 22 King of Kensington
Willowdale is pretty much the safe Liberal seat par excellence nowadays. It's the kind of seat the Conservatives are targeting in the GTA - affluent, ?ethnic? GTA suburbia - with little success to date. The results of the recent byelection - with the Tory vote more or less the same and a swing towards the Liberals - suggest that their efforts to target the Jewish and Chinese communities have not been very successful to date.
08 03 19 Stevo
Martha won in a landslide, obviously. But the Conservatives' 30% showing wasn't anything to sneeze at. Still, they will continue to be shut out of Toronto until who knows when, but Harper doesn't much care since he doesn't need Toronto to win the election. And it looks good for his party to see the Liberal Party's status as the Toronto Party cemented, now that 6 of the 8 leadership candidates from 2006 are now either elected or running for office in the 416.
08 03 18 binriso
Liberal vote goes up 7% and the CPC up less than 1%, doesn?t look so good for the CPC. That and Martha Hall Findlay isn?t so much a star candidate or at least no more so than the previous MP. This riding looks a lot like Don Valley West next door demographic-wise and the trends here are probably similar to what will happen there next time (very little change in votes and a relatively comfortable win for the LPC).

By-election Prediction

08 03 15
I think this one is pretty obvious but I did notice a poll that was released yesterday, Heres the results:
The phone survey was conducted by the Green Party over the weekend of March 8 to 10, 2008. The voice message asked ?which political party are you planning to vote for on March 17th?. Of the 761 voters who responded, their voting preferences were:
36.8% Liberal Party
15.6% Conservative Party
12.0% Green Party
6.6% New Democratic Party
29.0% Undecided
08 02 23 R.O.
Well drove thru this riding to check it out, would say the liberals were leading in signs so far. but there didn’t appear to be that many up and I only drove down a few major streets that run thru the riding. That being said it has been a very low key by-election that has not generated very much if any press in Ontario media so far. You flip thru the newspapers here and they almost never mention them. And without any major issues in this riding or controversy I’m predicting turnout will be low at best. Believe there was a provincial by-election in nearby Markham last year and turnout reached a remarkable 16% according to election Ontario website but some of the others by-elections here have reached 30% mark.
08 02 20 OgtheDim
I live and work in this riding, so I find all this talk of the Jewish vote rather uninformed...just like in the last provincial election.
The majority of the home owners in this riding is now of Chinese background, not Jewish. Condo dwellers on Yonge Street tend to be Persian or Korean or Chinese. There is a small pocket on the west side of the riding that is Jewish, but it is shrinking every day.
The sign war is being won by the Libs but the Conservatives are putting up more of a show then usual, with their candidate actually knocking on my door last night (first time I've ever seen a Tory candidate around here). Still, given the name recognition of the Liberal candidate and their machine in this riding, I would be very surprised for anything but, when people realise their is a bye-election going on, a Liberal win here.
08 02 11 Initial
While I agree the Libs will take this and Toronto Centre, I'd like to point out to A. Lewis that Peter Kent IS running again, in Thornhill. The same Thornhill that Peter Shurman took in the provincial election where the Conservative vote went down. He and Stephen Harper also happen to have more integrity than any Liberal I've ever met.
As for Willowdale, though, Martha will be happy to have a seat, too, because while the Grits will take Toronto Centre and Willowdale, they are going to lose DMC-River and possibly Vancouver Quadra, which in my books spells the end for Dion.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
In case she wasn't enough on her own merits, which she is, keep in mind that Hall-Findlay entered the convention on that last day with Dion, both of them wearing Dion's green scarves, and it set the tone for the rest of the day. Revenge? What? The Liberal Party of Canada is going to take revenge on Martha? That's completely nuts. Some Rae and Ignatieff flacks don't like her, but they don't like each other more, and they'll waste their time sabotaging each other's campaigns rather than pick on hers. As she is not herself a threat for the leadership any time soon, and has such a disarming presence anyway, it's hard to imagine backstabbing taking her down. Everyone knows Dion was the compromise insider candidate, but Martha will get Dion's personal support in this riding for her early move.
Anyone who thinks the City of Toronto will elect a Conservative in this next election is smoking something Harper would not approve of. Peter Kent had a chance perhaps but if he's smart he won't run again. He's got too much of a sense of truth and integrity to work for ‘Steve’ Harper.
08 01 16 Andrew
Pretty sure it's going to be Liberal. I read someone had commented about the Jewish population supporting Conservaties. Well - I'm Jewish and myself and my family are all voting for Findlay. Maybe you are referring to the ultra religious Jews who are an incredibly small minority in Willowdale. There's no way the Conservatives expect to take this riding.
08 01 06 King of Kensington
CPC predictions here are absurd. Willowdale is a very safe Liberal seat. Jim Peterson won this riding by a very, very wide margin last time. If the Tories couldn't take it in 1988, they won't be taking it any time soon.
Even if the fantasies of David Frum, Ezra Levant and the Aspers come true and there is a massive Jewish swing to the Conservatives because of Harper's support for Israel it wouldn't be enough. And that scenario isn't likely to happen. As Stevo correctly points out, there are pockets of Tory support in the Jewish community but no evidence of a general Jewish swing toward the Conservatives. Those pockets are in the Orthodox enclaves, which doesn't include Willowdale.
07 11 27 R.O.
The liberals won this seat easily in the last federal election but by-elections can be more unpredictable and turnout much lower . liberals could hold on to this seat , but admit I haven’t seen much of Martha Hall Finlay in the news or in Ottawa. As for the provincial race in this riding think the pc’s would of done better and had a chance to win it , maybe David Shiners council leaving thing hurt his chances or poor pc campaign province wide did him in. Anyways the federal conservatives have a new candidate Maureen Harquail and still unsure what ndp are doing here. prediction will wait until by-election takes shape .
07 11 19 Stevo
Rebel: You are about to receive a lot of flak for your comments, so let me express the impending tide of ridicule in a more polite way. In Canadian political analysis, there are several rules: #1 - one cannot use results in a provincial election to predict outcomes at the federal level. #2 - they don't call it the ‘Liberal Party of Toronto’ for nothing. #3 - although there are pockets of strong Tory support in the Jewish community, there is no evidence at all of a general Jewish trend towards the CPC.
Moreover, I think the Liberal vote percentage may actually go up in the next election since Martha Hall-Findley is a far more likeable person than Jim Peterson ever was. She will win with a minimum of 50% of the vote, and possibly as high as 65%. Although the Tories may have an outside chance of squeaking out a win in neighbouring Thornhill, they are still probably 5 elections away from even being competitive in Willowdale.
07 11 14 Rebel
Now, onto Willowdale. I would be more positive except for the results of the 2007 provincial election. I would suggest it may be too close to call at this point, given Peterson's retirement and the generally rosy poll results for the CPC. Locally, there should be a pro-CPC trend amongst the many Jewish voters as well as a suburban swing based on tax cuts and the like...but against that is the strong Liberal adherence that exists amongst Toronto voters post-1993.
07 08 24 Old Willowdaler
With all due respect to everyone here. TO suggest this seat will fall to the Tories is akin to believing global warming is caused by cow beltches!
This seat is belong Liberal in various incarnations it has been held by Liberals with only a few exceptions. 1979 and 1984. Barney Danson and of course Jim Peterson being the 2 most recognized in the last 40 years.
Jim Peterson lost in 1979 and 1984. In 1984 it was a shock to the Tory when he won and it was only because of the Libeal meltdown, Jim lost by 282 votes out of what 40000. Mainly because Liberal resources we sent to save Bob Kaplan and also because the Canyon area was so Liberal that everyone thought Jim had it sewn up and many did not vote. The 84 and 79 losses by Petersons stemmed from anger to PET
Along comes 88/90/93/97/2000 get the idea. Not even close Jim has progressively upped his vote count to the point one weighs Liberal votes in Willowdale they don?t count them
In 1979 and 1984 the older Wasp/Scots gradually moved or expired to be replaced by the Chinese, Persians and others. The riding has become Liberal to the point that one could likely run a gopher and win unless another 84 style collapse occurs. True the Canyon and traditional Liberal strongholds have shifted out of this riding since 84. However, the blue heartlands known as Bayview Village has evolved and turned quite Liberal red again due to the shifty ethnicity of Willowdale.
Jim Peterson could have run in the seat for the next 200 years and never lost. Martha is a newcomer but like Jim is a professional and a respected Liberal. Nothwithstanding the Peterson's clan support of Iggy no one including that clan will seek to exact revenge upon Martha. The only people who believe that are on controlled substances or members of the flat earth society. No PC or old time Tory honestly believes that this seat will fall.
If Martha drops dead the day before the election I would still say she would rack up 10000 majority from the grave. Stephen Harper is about as popular as a migraine so a liberal vote of less than 45% in this riding is about the same as Geroge Bush running for President of Iraq in 2009
07 08 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We can not believe the load of nonsense we are reading! The Liberals would willingly try to lose one of their stronghold ridings (yes strongholds!) to get back at Martha Hall-Findlay? PLEASE! Let's be realistic, the party wants to retake the government (obviously) and they are not going to pull some sort of get-rid-of-Martha campaign when they are on the opposition benches. Top it off to the all more important fact that the federal Conservatives are still not resonating with Canadians in the major urban centers (Willowdale in Toronto is included with that) as much as they would like. We said it once, we are going to say it again: Welcome to the House of Commons Martha!
07 07 30 M. Lunn
As Bear and Ape said earlier, welcome to the House of Commons Martha Hall Findlay. This riding did go Tory under Mike Harris and may very well go Tory next provincial election, but the success of the Tories provincially has not translated into success at the federal level and likely won't with a future cabinet minister and possibly even PM if Dion messes up.
07 07 30 A.V.
Willowdale will be a lock for Martha Hall Findlay, one of the biggest vote-getters the Liberals have right now. She gets great media coverage, and Willowdale exactly the kind of middle class, multicultural riding for her to thrive.
07 07 29 Beetle Bailey
The provincial election will be a pre-test for this bi-election. If the conservatives win provincially this will become TCTC. Also if the conservatives change their candidate and put a star in they will most likely defeat FINDLAY. Also a little inside scoop here some LIBERAL dislike MARTHA because of her support for DION during the LIBERAL leadership convention. So there will be a little revenge here to see her defeated.
07 04 07 A.S.
If 1988-and-before electoral conditions still prevailed, Martha Two-Names wouldn't be too-safe; indeed, subsequent boundary rejigs have chipped away at the formerly best Liberal part of the seat (Steeles/Bathurst, Fisherville et al), so Jim Peterson might have lost within these boundaries in '88, too. But Harper's still no Mulroney. So, if lightning strikes Belinda ‘Amber Dempsey’ Stronach's sceptre, this precocious Lisa Simpson will be there to take over, all but certainly.
Date 07 Stevo
The riding I grew up in. Although Willowdale was reliably a provincial Tory stronghold throughout the Harris years (and even prior), federally it has gone Liberal since 1988 and is a fully-entrenched member of the Liberal Red Toronto fortress. Landslide win for Martha Hall Findlay.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
So Martha Hall-Findly is going to be acclaimed Liberal candidate in Willowdale eh? Welcome to the House of Commons Martha! Liberals, no contest.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Martha Hall-Findlay should easily win this one and will likely get a cabinet post if the Liberals form government. As a strong female candidate and possible future leader, there is no reason she shouldn't take Willowdale in a landslide, besides the fact this is already a safe Liberal riding.

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