08 04 28	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
John Maloney always had a tough time winning his seat when he had Beamsville,Smithville,West Lincoln, Fort Erie and Dunnville in his riding. They all belong to Niagara West Glanbrook while Maloney now has Liberal friendly Welland, Thorold and some of south St.Catharines in his riding. Maloney is from Port Colborne and wins big there. Welland has a long tradition of voting heavily for the federal Liberals while Thorold has always had a Liberal base. South St.Catharines isn't strong Liberal teritory but Maloney does OK there and he loses the Fonthill section to the Tories. With the Liberals up in the polls, guys like Maloney who survived the loss of power in 2006 aren't in any trouble this election. The NDP have a weaker candidate and the Conservatives don't put up much of a campaign in this riding because they know they'll always finish third. For those reasons, John Maloney's long career in Ottawa will continue.
	08 04 18	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Stevo: the Alliance didn't come close to beating the Liberals in Welland in 2000 because the riding in its present form did not exist then. It was *John Maloney* I was referring to as the near-victim, because he was the incumbent in Erie-Lincoln--the heart of whose Alliance support was inherited by Niagara West-Glanbrook, where the candidate who gave Maloney his 2000 scare, Dean Allison, now happens to be the Tory incumbent. (Even I acknowledged re Maloney that ‘redistribution gave him a more congenial riding’.)
	08 04 10	Stevo 76.64.103.40
Welland is another socially conservative riding where the people nonetheless give most of their votes to left-wing parties. Although the Conservatives are doing well among the Canadian equivalent of Reagan Democrats in Oshawa and Cambridge, Welland is far poorer than either of those cities, perhaps too far down the economic ladder for the Tories to take off here. They will continue to remain competitive though, as the 2004 and 2006 results testify (btw A.S., a near-victim of the Alliance in 2000? I checked the numbers and the Alliance didn't come anywhere close to beating the Liberals in Welland in 2000). For now, still a Liberal/NDP battle with the Liberals having the clear edge due to incumbency.
	08 03 22	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
Welland is another riding where the growth of the Green Party at the expense of the NDP makes life easier for the Liberals. You shouldn't take our word for it. Just look at what the NDP are doing here. They had a well known two time candidate in Di Bartolomeo but couldn't convince him to run again because a win just isn't in the cards. With a lesser candidate and the Green Party chipping away at NDP support, the Liberals look all set in Welland. It also helps the Liberal chances that John Maloney is seen as a right wing Liberal. This helps protect his right flank and keeps the Conservatives from making gains here. It's all about demographics in Welland and Maloney has them going for him. Welland will remain Liberal.
	08 03 06	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.18
I have to admit I was shocked when I saw that an NDP member actually predicted his party could win Welland! Usually the NDPers wait until the writ to load up on Welland with predictions of victory that in the end never happen. Every election the NDP think the large Fracophone population in Welland that supports Peter Kormos provincially will finally shake lose and move to the NDP in a federal election. Liberal Maloney knows his bread and butter is the French vote in Welland and works them 365 days a year. Sorry but there's no change in Welland. It stays Liberal and in fact the NDP won't do as well as they did last time.
	08 02 29	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
I have to say that ‘Suaveman’ is totally wrong saying that the NDP have a strong candidate in Malcom Allen. Nominating a New Democrat from the Fonthill part of this riding makes now sense. The NDP take a terrible beating in Fonthill and Allen won't change that. When it comes to Welland and Thorold, Allen is a complete unknown so he won't do as well as the more high profile Jody Di Bartolomeo who ran in the last two elections for the NDP and developed a profile in the riding. I think if the NDP really had a shot Jody would line up to run again. John Maloney will win Port Colborne, Welland big, loses to the NDP in Thorold and the Conservatives in Fonthill. That means Maloney wins again no problem. I predict Maloney wins by 5000 votes this time.
	08 02 22	Suaveman 74.56.239.175
The NDP do have a good candidate here: the deputy mayor of Pelham, Malcolm Allen. Given that Welland is hard-core dipper in the provincial, I would be optimistic if I were the NDP.
	08 02 22	Doug the Slug 192.30.202.21
Liberal John Maloney has good connections in the party and has hosted a long list of high profile Liberals in his riding over the last 6 months. The NDP and Conservatives have done nothing in the Welland riding to indicate they think there's any chance of knocking off the very popular Maloney. I have to agree with ‘I'm Always Right’ that there's only one riding up for grabs in this region and it's St. Catharines. The NDP and Conservatives will throw everything they have into that riding and will forget about taking a shot at Welland. Election day is only 7 weeks from now and it's time to hand this riding to the Liberals.
	08 02 09	Quick Draw 69.49.33.94
Rust belt cities like Welland, Thorold and Port Colborne have it tough even when the economy is booming. Now that the Canadian economy is slowing, this riding is taking a beating. That means the CPC don't have any chance here as angry poor people in this riding will blame Steve Harper for their troubles. The NDP always think they have a chance in this riding but will come up short again simply because Layton and company are bleeding votes to the Greens and they can't come up with a good candidate in Welland. Looks like another term in office for Maloney who's known as ‘Mr. Invisible’ on Parliament Hill. In politics sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
	07 12 08	I'm Always Right 69.49.38.85
It really is time to officially give this riding to the Liberals. John Maloney has a personal popularity in this left leaning riding that will help him hold the seat. There's just no base for the Conservatives to build on here. Welland and Thorold have been traditionally Liberal for decades and adding Port Colborne to the riding makes it a lock of the Grits. The Conservatives will throw another token candidate in against Maloney and nothing more. The Liberals and Conservatives know the only race in Niagara is in St. Catharines so Maloney will cruise to another victory. This time by 4000 votes.
	07 09 03	Gerry O. 24.150.217.158
This is another Maloney win. Bank it. He's the only remaining Grit MP in the Niagara Region for a reason. Well respected across the board, I just can't see how a former Christian Heritage candidate or a Pelham town councillor can stack up with 14 years of experience. And in response to whomever suggested other victories were a matter of dumb luck, you're kidding yourself. Maloney runs one of the toughest, most aggressive campaigns of any politicians in this area. There is nobody who knocks on more doors and can outshine him in a debate.
	07 07 02	A.S. 74.99.222.209
Tug O'War over who can beat the Grits here. A near-victim of CCRAP in 2000, John Maloney has to thank his lucky stars that (a) redistribution gave him a more congenial riding, and (b) the unforeseen Peter Kormos-effect NDP 2nd place surge basically handed him the seat on a platter. So, such electoral dumb luck atop dumb luck leaves him the last remaining Grit in Niagara and all along the Lake Erie/Talbot Road corridor, besides! '04's opposition gridlock basically compounded itself in '06; NDP went up in share and held its second place, but the Tories went up marginally more, so the who's-got-the-opposition-advantage picture's no clearer. (The Dippers lost ground in Thorold, but gained more ground in Port Colborne: good news for Kormos' provincial electoral chances.) Now that the NDP's lived up to best instincts by nominating a municipal politician (albeit parachuted) and CPC's fed the worst stereotypes by nominating an old CHP/FCPer, maybe it's now clearer who has the upper hand...but given the respective political parties we're talking about and their long-term histories, who knows, who cares, whatever. Just don't read Maloney's so-far survival as an emblem of safety, though it certainly turns Welland into a consistently quirkily interesting--and unique, by Ontario standards--riding to watch.
	07 04 19	Elmo Harris 72.39.212.117
This is an easy win for the Liberals. John Maloney is very popular and is a tireless advocate for the people in this riding. The NDP on the provincial level has not been very effective in spite of the popularity of Peter Kormos and the people of Welland are tired of swimming upstream provincially. The NDP has no chance of forming the government and Malcolm Allen would only act as a spoiler further moving the people of this riding away from the mainstream. The Conservatives haven't got a chance in this riding.
	07 04 06	B. Miller 24.150.227.229
This one should be safely Liberal. Maloney has been a good MP for Welland and I don't see the people of this riding growing tired of him. Couple that with a weak NDP candidate, who does not live in the riding and only has rudimentary knowledge of local issues, and The Liberals should hold here.
	07 04 01	Informed Voter 69.156.179.227
With Malcolm Allen nominated as the NDP candidate, the party's long awaited federal breakthrough in this provincially held NDP riding may finally come to fruition. Maloney's decision to oppose same-sex marriage puts him into the same socially conservative camp as Kiers and the NDP will likely exploit this for all it's worth. Admittedly, the NDP is not riding as high in the polls these days, but neither are the Liberals. Allen, however, will have a much better team around him than the previous NDP candidate, and Jack Layton will be expected to pay the riding a visit (something he did not do in 2005-2006). It will be close, but my money is on an NDP pick up.
	07 03 31	Rey D.R. 130.15.234.201
I believe this will be a bell-weather riding and it will come down to the national campaign. Last election saw both the NDP and the CPC close the gap on John Maloney, a 14 yr. veteran MP. Both the NDP and CPC have nominated a new candidate this time around. The NDP nominating Pelham Deputy Mayor Malcolm Allen and the CPC nominating Alfred Kiers, who already lost to Maloney in 1997 when he ran for the Christian Heritage Party and then lost in 1999 Provincial Election when he ran for the Family Coalition Party of Ontario. I think Kiers may be a liability here for the CPC. Despite the CPC rising popularity, this is exactly the kind of Conservative that will not well in this particular riding and it may end up hurting the party here. However, that being said, I'm sure Kiers will be competitive here. I think it will be a very tight three-way race and until the national picture clears up closer to an election, I believe this riding will be TCTC. Give the Liberals an edge with the incumbency factor.
	07 03 29	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
This could stay Liberal or go NDP. It should be a top target riding for the NDP. Dion has little populist appeal and Layton's recent emphasis on economic populism should go over well in this very working class riding. The NDP has also nominated Malcolm Allen, a trade unionist who should go over much better in this riding than the previous candidate who had little to say about labour reforms.