Prediction Changed
2:41 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Almeida, Carlos Santos
Brown, Chester
New Democratic
Chow, Olivia
Illie, Val
Innes, Christine
La Frenie, Stephen
McGirr, Christine

Olivia Chow

2006 Result:
Olivia Chow
Tony Ianno **
Sam Goldstein
Thom Chapman
Asif Hossain
Nick Lin
John Riddell

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 dls
We have some pretty pie-in-the-sky Liberals here. If there is any truth the Gray article in the G&M today, then the Liberals have given up on both Parkdale High Park and Beaches East York... I doubt its because they think they can win back Trinty Spadina. I'm actually surprised it took EPP so long to call this. Consider:
1) NDP are up and the Liberals are down in the polls
2) Chow is the incumbent now
3) Innes doesnt have the name-recognition of Ianno even though she is his wife.
Expect a pretty comfortable win for Chow like in the range of 7,000 votes.
08 10 10 Old Willowdaler
I am going against the grain and calling this for the Liberals. My reasoning is as follows: I have in the past 7 days been to the all candidates meeting and spoken to roughly 100 people in the Annex a traditional hotbed of NDP support. What I heard shocked me, first a real anger against jack layton for being a showboat, this was driven home to me by the stunner-margaret atwood took a sign and is voting liberal. Next was comments by several old time dippers that Jack is more interested in self promotion than principles-this was a hammer to the head from the people I heard it from. I know that the Liberal has pointed out that it was Jack Layton who brought us Stephen Harper he borrowed our votes last time and behold we know what we got this seems to be the tone in the Annex -I am NDP but kicking out Harper trumps that and its too bad jack cannot figure that out. Urban legend has it that when Olivia Chow many years ago asked Dan Heap for a job he said ‘No I dont trust you’, sadly Mr. Heap is ill so I could not obtain his side of the story as he no longer is able to provide it. Its the anger I hear amongst NDPers that has convinced me frankly, at first I dismissed it but it was too prevelent. Now before the Grits think they have turned these people, bad news it was clear to me that it was a one off thing by most kind of a reverse lend me a vote from layton.Artists are also at the I have had enough point and they are NOT friendly liberals
The condos are the bigger story, the tory vote is up so is the green I spoke to the Green and found him a real sharp guy and if I got the straight goods he is an ex-NDPer who also has had enough of jack.Jack is the kind of guy our peice of work PM was talking about at the gala's not the artists.The polls showing the Grits and Cons neck and neck is also a critical factor as it seems the 2/3 of canadians only agree on one thing they want to see the back of harper. The ABC vote it my opinion is now shifting to the liberals and this will nudge this into the Grits by under 500 votes
The latest attack on Dion by harper over his language skills just confirmed that harper is a nasty jerk who cares not a want about the rest of us (case and point the Mansbridge interview) and picks on Dion as an act of desperation for a mistake I make like most of us a couple of times a week or month depending on my sleep level.
I think between the markets, Harper's personality, and the shifting polls it will be a slight con minority on the 14th but that the ABC vote will move to Dion who seems to me a decent if not misrepresented fellow as jack has taken his eye off the ball. Stop Harper is what 2/3 of us want and Olivia will now pay the price based on what I ahve seen and lose this seat.
That is my respectfull opinion to you all, the next time around however it could go back to the NDP
08 10 09 Joshua Zuckerman
I disagree with Bob Rae below - it is not outrageous to predict this for the NDP as they probably still have the advantage here. The NDP is the incumbent and also no ordinary member of the NDP due to her close connection to Jack Layton.
I do agree that since the Liberal numbers are going up in Ontario that they have a shot at this seat, but it's a shot - not a guarantee as Bob Rae claims.
By the way, I saw the broadcast of the Dale Goldhawak candidates' debate from Trinity-Spadina on CPAC last night and Christine Innes did not come across as a very strong candidate. I tihnk the Liberals would have a better shot here if Ianno was running.
To sum up, I agree with the prediction of an NDP win, but I also agree the Liberals have a small shot at it.
08 10 08 Doug
I think it's too early to call this either way. Olivia didn't show in many places and Innes is a little too aggresive for many people's taste. There's also an independent candidate that is Portuguese. He will take some of the traditional Liberal votes and even some from NDP. There's another independent that has a lot of support from students and young people. The Green Party is actually increasing in popularity in this riding too. So we may see 5 or 6 candidates very close in the end.
08 10 09 PY
Stéphane Dion's speech at a joint luncheon of the Empire and Canadian Clubs in Toronto (which also featured an appearance by Paul Martin) could well seal the condo vote for Christine Innes and certainly qualifies as Dion's best speech of the campaign.
On the other hand, Jack Layton's attempts to make inroads in the business community (no thanks to Paul Summerville, who's since left for the Liberals) with his speech to the Toronto Board of Trade during the last campaign fell flat, though I certainly can't fault him for trying. However, there's little he or Olivia Chow can do to argue against Dion's speech, if at all.
As well, the various polls essentially have the Liberals within reach of the Tories nationally and the NDP having difficulty growing beyond their base (18-20%); these are numbers now worth looking at with days to go until election day and certainly not the ones from the previous weeks that have been continually been referred to.
Going back to MH's earlier comments about being contacted by the Chow campaign, it might be that your number might have once belonged to a former supporter of happens. I was also contacted by one of Chow's volunteers and our exchange was cordial despite identifying myself as a supporter of Christine Innes. Normally, my having a Liberal sign outside my house at election time will never spur the Chow campaign to call me, but this time they did and I still don't understand why...unless Chow's having a much tougher time identifying who her supporters are these days. Hmmm...
08 10 08 DL
Its now Oct. 8 and I still have not received anything at all from the Liberals but i got my THIRD piece of NDP literature - plus phone calls. Its simple arithmetic NDP support is UP since 2006 and Liberal support is down - so the Liberals are in no position to gain any NDP seats. Olivia Chow now has all the advantages of incumbency and on top of that she no longer has to worry about losing votes from old men who refuse to vote for a woman - since the Liberals are now running Ianno's wife.
08 10 08 Vote Bob Rae
Calling Trinity-Spadina for the NDP is outrageous. The Liberals want this riding back and with a strong candidate in Christine Innes they will.
Consider the following:
The major ethncities in the riding include Chinese, Portuguese, Italian and Jewish. The Chinese vote is traditionally Liberal and only voted NDP in '06 because of Martin's refusal to apologize for the head tax. Olivia may be Chinese, but she has her enemies in that community. The Italian and Portuguese voters in the west end like Rosario Marchese much more than they like Olivia. And Jewish voters are not going to be supporting the NDP this time given their stance on Israel.
Then there's the artsy/bohemian crowd in Kensington and Queen West that went almost entirely to Olivia last time. But as the provincial election result showed, the NDP does not have a lock on this group. Many prefer Elizabeth May's positive approach to the NDP's tired, old-fashioned socialism. And some will go to the Liberals because of the arts funding issue, following the lead of Margaret Atwood.
The Annex used to be a lock for the NDP but Christine Innes is a well known neighbourhood activist there and will get many votes there. And condo dwellers will be attracted to the fiscal responsibility of the Liberals rather than the NDP economic policy which isn't any different than it was as the CCF!
08 10 08 OntheStreet
I have lived in this riding for over 30 years now. I do not belong to any particular party. I have voted for 3 parties in my life. Never has one of them been Conservative and the third came in the last provincial election. How is that for an equation? I live in the Seaton Village. During this campaign we have been visited by the NDP and the Liberals.I was not home but my wife was sold by Innes. I have also been canvassed by phone. I like to chat up volunteers and see how well they can convince me. The NDP was using callers outside of Toronto. The Liberals gave me information on where to vote and when. Nothing on the platform. I attended the debate at the JCC yesterday and made up my mind. Christine Innes is a very intelligent lady that can represent Trinity Spadina like it has never been before! Nothing like her husband! Historically T.S has not had a cabinet minister or a major critic in a long time. This is definetly one of the best canidates to run here in a while. The question is how many doors can she get to? and will Dion turn off voters. As for the signs I have 2 on my lawn and my neighbour has 1 of the NDP. He is not elgible to vote. No matter who wins let's be happy it is not a Harper seat.My prediction is Innes wins. Difference : Condos + Northern split.
08 10 07 Andrew
I originally figured Chow would win. But it appears the Innes has even more support in the riding than Ianno did. There's a lot more signs in certain areas of the riding that would not normally have Liberal signs. While the NDP will do well this election, I think this riding might be a heartbreaker for the NDP.
08 10 07
‘Identical boundaries’ are less important than the people that live within them. The key question in this riding is the extent to which the Greens (who have an able and progressive candidate in the riding) can bleed off NDP support, and the extent to which the massive influx of condo residents deliver votes to the Liberals.
But if the sign war is even, then things are already pretty dire for the NDP. The condo owners aren't going to have signs, so their support is invisible on the ground. And the sign war does appear to be even, or even in Innes' favor; Chinatown's signage is not anywhere near as pro-Chow as one would expect, the Annex is mixed, and major arteries seem to be more red than orange.
Combine that with an NDP candidate who has been hammered over and over again by two progressive opponents that actually bother to attend debates, and one of the most energetic Liberal candidates in the province, and I'm starting to see this as a Liberal pickup.
08 10 06 RM
Unlike the previous posting, I'm surprised how much I have been solicited by the NDP and the Liberal. Olivia Chow knocked on my door for the first time ever, as did Innes, and I saw Innes standing at my streetcar stop with a team in the morning, and then this weekend the Liberals did a literature drop in my condo building. To me Innes is more out and about than Ianno was.
That all being said, surely the NDP are going to hold this one (though I would rather have the Liberals take it).
08 10 05 DL
You just have to look at the province-wide trend in Ontario. Its pretty clear that Liberal support is way down compared with the 2006 election and NDP support is up. Just a year ago we had a provincial election fought on identical boundaries and the NDP won easily - even while the Liberals were sweeping the province. If the NDP can win during an Liberal landslide - they can win during a Liberal collapse.
Honestly, the only people that care about all-candidates meetings are a few flaks for the various parties. Look at all these Tories who make it a policy never to attend any debates at all - and then they win easily and the Elizabeth May debate thing is ancient history. No one cares.
But most importantly, I live in the riding and while I have been canvassed by the NDP and received TWO different glossy brochures as well as another black and white piece of literature from the NDP - I have yet to receive ANYTHING from the Liberals at all - no calls, no literature NOTHING - NADA!. When its one week from election day and a candidate who is supposed to be a contender still hasn't even dropped literature to a semi-detached typical house in the Annex with an easily accessible mailbox - it tells me that the Liberals are putting up some signs and that's about it.
08 10 05 Old Willowdaler
Just back from having a look at Quebec so went to 2 or 3 parts of T-S this weekend. In the North East it seems to be almost equal for NDP/Grits, the North West seems split as well with certain streets 2 to 1 for the liberals and others 3 to 1 for the NDP. Went up Albany, Admiral, Kendal & other Annex streets,it seems split down the middle. This struck me as odd as its always a solid NDP area if memory serves and I cannot recall ever seeing in even in the last 2 decades. I have also heard some NDP complaining about Chow not showing up at All Candidates meetings and I hear the Green has blasted her for this. Not sure if its true but I know the JCC is doing one Monday night so will be sure to pop in and see the lay of the land. Condoville is much more Liberal/Con than the rest and will help Innes, its Seaton Village, Annex etc that are the big factor here. Now not sure if the closeness in signs is due to vandalism (We all know that T-S is famous for this type of stuff) or if its actually reflective of the vote. If Annex has shifted to a split than Innes will win by 1500 votes. I CAN’T call it until I know what is going on in that area but gut is 1500 or less either way, I am off to actually count signs for each side and listen to the local buzz here in the annex
08 10 05 MGK
Since the predictions for this election opened, I've been predicting Olivia Chow's reelection. I still think the election hers to lose. However, seeing the campaign progress, I'm starting to suspect that she is doing just that. The largest NDP riding association in the country does not seem to have a well-organized campaign, in sharp contrast to the 1500-strong volunteer army mobilized in 2006. Moreover, Chow's absence at several candidate forums should not go down well. The reputation she established as the voice of the grassroots on City Council is giving way to an image of an arrogant political insider, especially coming on top of the Elizabeth May debacle (which alienated many long-time New Democrats). At at time when the Greens are taking over the NDP's traditional position as the ‘outsider’ party, that may not be a change the NDP can afford, especially among the students and artists in this part of Toronto.
08 10 05 CG
I'm pretty confident this is going to stay in Chow's hands. I walked through the riding today and I would say that she is winning the sign war only very slightly with the Lib candidate, Innes.
However, one thing that is different this time around than in 2006 is the amount of Conservative signs out as well. McGirr doesn't stand a chance to get elected, but I think the Conservatives will have a higher vote intake this year than in the previous election. These votes will inevitably come at the expense of the Liberals, not the NDP. Although I see a small Green presence here, it is not enough to upset the overall balance, although I'd imagine they will see an increase in their vote as well.
08 10 04 Floydo
How do we know Ms. Chow will win this for the NDP? Let me count the ways...1)Ms. Chow has had several opportunities to represent the NDP point of view on national television, doing so with grace and intelligence - high profile for the candidate. 2)Stephen Harper is taking votes away from the Liberals in Ontario, and the NDP is staying strong, as shown in the Globe and Mail (20% in Ontario as of Oct. 3, compared to 18.1% of the vote in 2004 and 19.4% in 2006) - the Liberals will bleed votes in Ontario to the NDP and Conservatives. 3)Jack Layton has given a command performance of leadership in this campaign while Mr. Dion has failed to connect with voters - attraction of voters to the party leader. All this, combined with a 3500 vote win for Ms. Chow in the last election, creates an insurmountable hurdle for the Liberals in Trinity Spadina.
08 10 02 FS
A few comments ...firstly with a mass infusion of new condo dwellers and young professionals in the riding with some estimates of 5,000 to 7,000 new voters it should not be discounted that the both the liberals and conservatives should receive the majority of these ‘new voters’ -
secondly, olivia campaigned last election on i) on an affordable national day care program, ii) closing down the island airport iii) on better funding for students/universities. Obviously, none of these promises ms chow made have come to fruition. In addition, in Ontario the NDP are not stronger or polling at levels higher than in the last election and in fact there is some discord to Jack's positions to not allowing ms may in the debate. The race will be close but I see the new residents (condo) dwellers as the difference with a liberal victory of 1000 votes or so.
08 10 01
Steve, if it were the same riding, and the same parties, you might have a point. But the Liberals have moved in a more progressive direction since 2006, the demographic and political makeup of T-S has shifted, and the Greens are poised to take a lot of votes in T-S, which will probably disproportionately affect the NDP, simply because they have more progressive votes to lose.
Plus, there are only so many resources in the city, and the NDP has their hands full in Parkdale and the Beaches. It's clear that they weren't expecting a serious fight in T-S. Now that they have one, it may be too late to reorient their Toronto machine.
08 10 01 Steve
It's not that it won't be close, but there's truly no way Innes will unseat Olivia.
>From the last election, here's what's changed:
Olivia is now an Incumbent
Liberal Candidate is unknown
NDP is doing better nationally compared to 2006
Liberals are doing worse nationally compared to 2006
Green party is stronger, and is the leading second choice amongst Liberals
I'm sorry, but what possible reasoning can there be to suggest Olivia will get unseated? ‘She's unpopular’ is a moot point (she's loved as much as she's hated)...
08 10 01
If the sign war is going Innes' way, then the riding may well too. There are a ton of new condos being built in the south end near the water, and a fair number around University and Adelaide as well. While condo owners split between different parties, the fact remains that they're likely to be young professionals, a group that heavily favors the Liberals and Greens.
And it's the Greens that might well decide this. 2007's race between Marchese and Holloway was tighter than previous ones partially because the Greens were bleeding off NDP support. Social conscience and environmental concerns go hand-in-hand, and the new progressive Green party will be an attractive choice for T-S voters who know that their riding cannot go Conservative and are more loyal to the environment than the NDP.
The Greens will likely draw from both progressive parties, but disproportionately from the NDP's traditional base of support. That might help put Innes over the top.
The fly in the ointment is that the condo-dwellers are difficult to reach, vote based on national instead of local issues, and are going to be more Conservative than any other traditional T-S group. The Liberals have to convince Conservatives that they're better off with a Liberal representing them than Ms. Chow. while that isn't a hard sell, they have to actually reach them first.
08 09 30 MGK
Old Willowdaler: I'm not sure how the Marchese-Wong contests in the old Fort York riding refute my point. Are you claiming that the Chinese vote was decisive in Marchese's victory? Or even that he did better than the NDP normally would in Chinatown, or worse in Little Italy? (Was Chinatown even in Fort York? I thought it was in St.A-St.P, although I can't find a pre-1999 Ontario electoral map to cofirm.)
My point is that a candidate will generally do better among voter of his/her own ethnicity than the party generally does with other candidates, not that that difference will always be enough to win a riding, or even win a plurality of that ethnic group. To support that claim, I note that I seem to hear particular enthusiasm for Olivia in Chinatown/Kensington Market, for Marchese in Little Italy and Palmerston Village, and for the NDP without qualifiers in the Annex. That's just an impression. I'm going to see if I can find neighbourhood breakdowns of vote results. It would be interesting to compare results in Chinatown and Little Italy for the Marchese-Wong and Chow-Ianno contests -- how does switching the ethnicity of the two main candidates affect their local strengths?
In brief: the north end of this riding votes overwhelmingly NDP, the south end votes mainly Liberal, and the Chinese, Portuguese and Italian areas in the middle are more mixed (although generally leaning Liberal), with a boost given in each ethnic group to any candidate of that group.
08 09 29 MH
Twice today I was phoned if I would donate time to the Olivia Chow campaign, and I neither live in T-S nor belong to the NDP. Both callers sounded on edge. I think the race between Chow and Christine Innes is closer than anybody in the NDP camp expected, and I suspect it will be nip and tuck on October 14.
08 09 29 Andrew
Not 100% sure. You would think that this riding would be a lock for Chow. But I volunteered for her campaign the last last election (when she originally lost to Ianno) and it was surprising to see her lose. She seemed to have lots of signs and support. When she finally beat Ianno in the last election they had to work even harder to get her elected and pumped in lots of resources to do it. For a riding that should be an easier win for her - they sure need to work incredibly hard to keep it.
Just something to think about. Innes does seems kind of low profile in the riding, but I'm not sure if that's true. I'd say probably NDP, but I won't be shocked if Liberals won it. Especially if there is a bounce in Ontario polling following the debate. (Could also be a drop....)
08 09 28 redapplefalls
comfortable hold for the NDP.
as of yesterday, the NDP and liberals were statistically tied in the polls across the country. olivia is not only a high profile MP for the NDP, but for Toronto as well. her frequent coverage over the past year in general, and in particular regarding the immigration bill, have done much i suspect to bolster her credibility with long-time residents who may have voted for her with skepticism. like the 2006 election, olivia's campaign will receive a perceivable gush of support for the student population which she caters to very well.
christine innes doesn't have much name recognition except for the fact that she is former liberal MP tony ianno's spouse. you can take that for what it's worth. and while she is winning the sign war (and let's be blunt: you don't win elections with signs), it is noticeably among the single family dwellings in the upper annex. coupled with dion's continued inability to ignite a captivating persona, NDP hold by 1000-3000 votes.
08 09 28 King of Kensington
It's really time to call Trinity-Spadina for the NDP. The Liberals are way down from where they were in '06 and the 21-point spread between the Liberals and NDP in Ontario from last time has narrowed significantly. Olivia Chow now enjoys the advantage of incumbency. I expect the NDP to win this riding by 6000 votes or more.
08 09 28 JS
I don't know who will win but I see Olivia Chow losing this seat. The NDP dumped a lot of assets into this riding last election to get Jack's wife elected, and she was also helped a lot by sympathy votes after an idiot from another party referred to her as a ‘Chow Chow dog’. She's got no sympathy vote this time and after a full term as MP Chow is not very loved in this riding. It's probably going to another party, likely Liberal.
08 09 27 John
New Liberal candidate. Chow is the incumbant. Chow gets some extra coverage courtesy of husband and party leader Jack. Yeserday the Globe and Mail released a poll that suggests the Liberals will lose all but one of the swing ridings--the one they keep being Hull-Aylmer in Quebec. The Conservatives are far enough back in this riding to not really be in the picture as far as I can tell. If I had to bet the family farm today, I'd go with Olivia Chow.
08 09 26 Old Willowdaler
In response to MGK -two words ‘Bob Wong’ it did not save him from being defeated by Marchese. To make a short post long its not even close to the factor in this people are suggesting. Lets move on from the ‘Ethnic’ card. Bloor North to Dupont fron Avenue to Ossington was always the NDP heartland of this riding as long as I can remember. This week I took the time to have a good look through the Annex and Seaton Village, and the fact is the signs are almost equally split between Innes and Chow. The last 2 campaigns this was NOT the case and to my suprise I also saw about a dozen for the PC and 20-30 for the Greens in those same areas which is a new twist. The biggest factor going against Innes is the ‘Dion’ effect where many lifelong Liberals are also thinking hard how to stop Harper and Chow is using the Urban Myth this is an NDP stronghold to shake them to her. NDP Stronghold not really - The grits have taken it by 2000 and lost it by 2000, won it by 500 and lost it by 500. This riding has historically been in the Liberal column far more than the NDP -this is a fact This riding will never be taken by the PC's- This is a fact (however I have NEVER seen this many PC signs in this riding)The Condos to the south are PC/Green/Liberal with a few NDP represent about 20000 new voters and they tilt this riding towards Innes because they do not reflect the rest of the riding which is a mix of artists/Working Class/Intellectuals who have been the base of this riding for decades. Lastly despite Chows comments to the contrary.. The Greens ARE A FACTOR in this riding in my opinion to the tone of 12-15%. The Green vote is the deciding factor as far as I am concerned the only question is.... where are most of those votes coming from Chow or Innes the answer to that question will settle who hold this seat not the ‘Chinese’ vote
08 09 26 Economist
If it is safe to judge by residents who actually spend time in the riding, this one will be pretty certain to go Chow's way. Olivia has really been doing a stand-up job in representing the values of our neighbourhood, and she has a much more high-profile role than a Liberal backbencher like Innes would. My only concern is that condo residents could play spoiler. I don't mean to suggest that their values are neccessarily any different; after all, the chose to live here for a reason. However my experience is the condo demographic may not actually spend much time in the riding (work on Bay Street with suburban types, party at Easy, and visiting family etc. in the burbs), such that they simply wouldn't have much chance to mingle with the 'natives' and learn what Olivia's been doing. It is also really difficult to communicate effectively in condos, because of condo rules.
08 09 25 MGK
Replying to Old Willowdaler: Nobody is claiming that *all* Chinese-Canadians are voting for Olivia Chow, just that she has *a lot of* strength in Chinatown. Which, I think is indisputable -- certainly, she does much better there than previous NDP candidates have.
Also, I don't think you'll get very many people saying that they'll vote for a particular candidate because (s)he is [insert ethnicity here]. But having a shared culture and language does help the candidate reach out. Many people will find it easier to relate to, and therefore to trust, someone of their own ethnicity. If nothing else, Chow can speak to Cantonese-speaking voters (still a significant population in the Chinatown/Kensington area) in a language in which they are fluent. That's a population that for years was the most dependable Liberal constituency in this former Liberal fortress. Chow's gains with that group was key to making this a swing riding, and I don't think that would have happened without a Chinese-Canadian candidate.
08 09 24 Old Willowdaler
TO: posted no name so I have to refer to you as a number despite the fact I dont want to) & King. Not to be difficult here guys- (1)census data is in fact behind the times due to the turn over. (2)The merchants are Chinese mainly and dont live down here, (3)many residents who are oldtimers and still here are Toisan/Hoiping who have been here for decades (4)a large portion of those from Vietnam are in fact ‘Viet Chinese’ and declare themselves as Chinese and are not the same group as the CBC's/HK/ or Mainland Chinese and (5) a large number are in fact Mainland Chinese.On #5 The mainland Chinese are for the most part NOT citizens and hence Cannot vote (I know roughly about 100 in this area guys so I have a factual basis for this statement)so even if they are in the census they will not have an impact. Secondly a large number of the ‘Chinese’ in T-S are second, third or even fourth generation who live in the condo projects in the south end of T-S and DO NOT vote on ethnic lines or even party lines but show up as Chinese on census data whereas they are just as split the the UEL types in eastern ontario . In addition (sorry you guys started me on this rant with the ‘ethic vote’ carp!) I personally find the suggestion that they would vote for Olivia because she is a Chinese shows a total lack of understanding of the community not to mention insulting. The concept of I vote for my own is an urban myth. I personally can remember one Ying Hope who ran here in the 80's for the PC's, other PC's from this area Dr. Gordan Chong & Dr. Benson Lau. Jews don't vote for the Jew, Chinese don't vote for the Chinese and Italians don't vote for the Italian despite this myth to that effect. To make a short story long the ‘Chinese’ are made up of many factions who are very different from each other and are split amongst the big 3 parties so its a myth they all vote for Chow because she is ‘Chinese’. In fact I would be shocked if Olivia says to them I'm a chinese and so are you so you have to vote for me nor does she even think that all the Chinese vote for her so to King and why do people on here believe this is true?
08 09 23 M
Been a Trinity Spadina resident for 10 years and lived at College/Spadina and now the Trinity Bellwood areas. Olivia Chow has fewer/no signs in my current neighborhood/street. I never heard of Innes before last month. The old neighborhood (College/Spadina) still seems strongly in favor of Olivia again based on signage. My wonder is how much of an NDP/Lib spoiler the Greens will be wrt the student vote.
08 09 23
Old Willowdaler - When I saw your comment about vietnamese people in Chinatown I had to laugh! I'm Vietnamese and live in the area and I do agree that a large amount of the asian population here IS Vietnamese but the vast majority is still however Chinese. Even among the Vietnamese population though, Olivia still is extremely popular. A lot of her updates sent around, well to my house anyways, are in Vietnamese itself so she must have a lot of Vietnamese supporters to warrant translating her news. I've seen a couple signs up for the liberals but mostly here in Chinatown they're all for Olivia. Her riding office is in the community as well so I'm sure she'd make sure the community stayed updated.
08 09 21 PY
I did not say that there were that many NDP seats to be stolen or reclaimed by the Liberals...for example, I don't pretend to have a clue as to how the NDP's doing in Hamilton and I doubt the Windsor-based incumbents will lose. Then again, not everyone's buying into Layton's appeal to be elected as Prime Minister (at least they're not laughing at him) and that disconnect with him might prove to be more difficult to overcome than that associated with Dion.
That the Liberals and NDP have their bases of support here is a given, but they'll both need to find like-minded voters in the condos in order for either party to win. Chow's comment in a recent Globe article on the race in the riding that condo residents are still paying off their student debt demonstrates how she doesn't get it, however...if one can afford to live in a condo, surely student debt can't be that much of a financial burden.
As for the Greens, they could play spoiler if voters aren't satisfied with choosing solely between Chow and Innes (whether through Layton and Dion or not), so the Greens could tack on a few undecideds or swing voters along the way.
Dion unveiled the Liberal infrastructure plan during his stop in Toronto on Thursday, ambitious as it may seem, but it could be welcomed by voters here. He also announced some comprehensive funding for the arts, the likes of which I've never heard before, in Montreal two days later and this is bound to impress artists across all mediums in this riding as well.
On the other hand, Layton's got a little egg on his face, having had to fire three candidates in as many days, including one in will that stick to Olivia? Maybe, but maybe not. His questioning of Dion's deal with Elizabeth May and denying her the right to be in the debates only to back down hasn't endeared Layton that much with voters; neither will his latest questioning of the one Dion made in order to recruit former Marijuana Party leader Marc-Boris St-Maurice into the Liberals. It hasn't also hasn't helped that Layton lost Paul Summerville, who ran under the NDP banner in the last election (and would have made an excellent point man for the NDP on fiscal matters), to the Liberals. Layton's continuingly poor recruitment history makes Thomas Mulcair's efforts in Quebec look brilliant by comparison and that might also sow doubts in voters' minds as to whether backing Chow is really such a wise decision after all. The fear of a Harper majority could also eat into her support.
Chow definitely comes across as one who's far more articulate in Chinese than when speaking in English and this is where Innes, as a veteran lawyer, really has her such, she'll be better able to hold her own whether she's in the House or in a parliamentary committee.
The bottom line: Christine Innes is not going to make things easy for Olivia Chow, plain and simple.
08 09 18 King of Kensington
DL: Christine Innes has a lot more signs in the riding than the invisible Kate Holloway did in the last provincial election, but Olivia is still leading in the sign war very comfortably, by about a 2-1 margin I'd say. ‘PY’ has believed the Liberals were going to steal about half the NDP seats in Ontario all along, even though I don't know how one can make such a prediction when most polls are showing the Liberals to be polling below their 2006 result and a narrowing of the spread between the Liberals and NDP in Ontario.
Old Willowdaler: You're right to point that not ‘everyone’ loves Olivia Chow. However the idea of Chinatown actually being more Vietnamese than Chinese is a myth - check out the census stats available online. The vast majority of immigrants in Chinatown are from Mainland China. It is not a lock for Olivia, but the NDP did win the Chinatown polls last time.
08 09 18 Old Willowdaler
Today I did a quick tour of the College/Spadina area. Large Innes signs have sprung up and seem to ALMOST match the large signs of Chow. Amongst smaller signs Chow is still ahead in this area. Now before any one goes off about signs- Signs DO NOT Vote people Vote several very wise MP's taught me as child many years ago. Just an observation on my part guys!
Today's poll was very very interesting and could impact T-S if its true and the greens have upward movement and Harper's majority is slipping away. The loss of the fear of Harper could help Chow retain the seat,whereasthe Green vote would be more amongst the under 30 set and U of T which is a negative for Chow as it pulls away votes from her. Would either of these factors be enough to swing the riding one way or another ? They (in my mind only) seem to offset each other so I dont see the breakout Innes needs to swing it back nor do I see a surge for Chow. Would be very interested to hear (OBJECTIVE ONES PLEASE) opinions from T-S residents as to what they think these 2 factors mean
08 09 16 Old Willowdaler
I had a chuckle as I read Mr. Adams submission. If you actually live in the riding sir you are aware (a) In this ‘Chinatown’ the majority of the merchants do not live in T-S and (b) a large percentage of the person perceived to be ‘Chinese’ are in fact from Vietnam and finally (c)suggesting Chow has a lock on the Chinese vote is so beyond idiotic and is akin to suggest Harper has a lock on sweater wearing voters.
As to his suggestion that the riding ‘loves Chow’ For every person I have met who ‘loves’ Chow I have met 1 who hates her guts this is also true of Ianno before her, Heap or Coutts. This riding is to be charitable TOUGH!
I have notices a lot of lawn signs now going up but its still close for what I have seen with an edge to Chow.
Interesting on Sunday I saw the Green Party setup a campaign office at College & Spadina in old Honson Computer store-this is right at the cross roads of Kensington/Chinatown to the south, Annex to the North, Little Italy to the West and UofT to the East. Well selected guys! It also is about 2 blocks away from Innes campaign office
I have heard people in NDP circles rather upset by the whole Greens fiasco but as to if that will hurt Olivia-I doubt it
08 09 16 DL
The submission by ‘PY’ is pure fiction. First of all, Olivia Chow has not left Toronto since the election was called and is spending 100% of her time campaigning in Trinity-Spadina. Second of all I have biked all over the riding and i could literally count the number of Liberal signs I saw on one hand. With the national Liberal campaign in complete freefall and the Liberals running a total unknown with zero name recognition - it should be an easy NDP hold.
08 09 16 Joel
Expect a few of the Torys in this riding may for for Olivia just to prevent a liberal steal. I think even without such support through strategic voting Olivia would probably hold this seat.
08 09 16 David
Oh my - Toronto's ‘Now’ magazine loves Olivia! Big deal! ‘Now’ also rates Pizza Pizza as the best - we all know better than that!
08 09 15 Ken Adams
Toronto's 'Now' magazine has repeatedly voted Olivia Chow politician of the year. I live in this riding and the people here love her! It may have been tough for her to win this riding before, but I think she will hang on to it for many years. She has the support of the Chinese community (this riding has the biggest Chinatown in Canada), students (U of T), Kensington market hippies as well as the condo-dwelling, TTC-riding, 'champagne socialist' crowd who live in possibly the most densely populated riding in Canada.
08 09 15 PY
I passed by the Chow campaign office not too long ago and it looked like a really dreary place; it was dimly lit and wasn't exactly buzzing with activity. Then again, she was on tour with her husband and so I guess the office manager was manning the ship as best as possible at the time.
Innes's sign coverage has greatly improved over the past few days and she's riding a bit of momentum.
As for the Red Tories in the riding, remember the old adage 'better red than dead'; they will not vote for Chow if their lives depended on it, so Innes will likely sew most of their votes up, with the rest maybe going to the Greens if they don't choose to hold their noses and vote for the other Christine in this race (McGirr).
Finally, the war between the NDP and Greens still hasn't been resolved at all despite Layton's backing down on allowing May into the debates. That could turn people off from Chow by extension, not to mention the latest questioning of the Dion/May deal. The last thing Chow should be doing is allowing people to think there could be something of a very selective non-aggression pact between Harper and her husband, which there likely isn't, but appearances can be deceiving.
I believe Innes could have the ability to surprise voters here, but the more Chow takes to the road with her husband, the more it'll look like she's unwilling to take Innes on.
08 09 13 Tyler
I used to live in this riding, and I have to say - no one has harder workers than the NDP. Their base is strong. If you look at the last two elections, the amount of votes that Olivia got was pretty similar, it was Ianno's vote that shrunk. And those were elections under very different leaders. Now, the voters looking for a new party are not the people in the NDP, it's the liberals. Which means you will see increased support for the conservatives and the green party; but that all simply makes it even more of an NDP lock because their solid base will beat all the other parties. Also, the student vote is important because it's the NDP student supporters who are most likely to vote.
08 09 12 VanToria
I don't think strategic voting will hurt Olivia Chow. It is already a seat the Conservatives don't have, they're not going to get it so why not just keep her in. I think NDP incumbents will only benefit from any strategic anti harper voters.
08 09 12 leroy Johnson
This is the most strategic riding in the election, Conservatives that vote strategically will vote for N.D.P. Fear of a Conservative Majority will cause swing voters to vote Liberal, the Myth that the Green party takes votes from the N.D.P. isn't looking to promising for Olivia. Ianno has to take 2000 votes directly from the N.D.P. to get even. Two good Candidates, both with a wealth of experience, although Olivia has the upper hand in the popularity contest. Quote Vinnie Barbarino ‘ I'm so confused ‘
08 09 09 James
This one has to go to Olivia. She's been working hard throughout the riding as many opposition MPs have to and captures the student vote well considering there are two universities to represent. She has to concentrate on the waterfront constituents to have a good margin of victory.
08 09 10 Old Willowdaler
Decided to have a bit of a walk about the riding the first 3 days of the week. Saw very few signs up for either Chow or Innes (bit of a suprise all things considered) Oliva has a few up around Innes campaign off and of course on the Labour dominated buildings on Cecil (near her home and by Innes campaign office)
This riding, feel free to correct my percentages, has a core vote of 33% for the Grits, 33% for the dips, these are the floors for those parties which it never falls below. the Tory's pretty at 10% and another 5% with greens and others. I would estimate less than 15% of the votes are up for grabs in any election in fact. The net result is that its always been small margins of victory for either the grits or dippers and I do not know of any crediable reason to beleive this has changed since 2006. This means its a tough and nasty slog to get your margin of victory.
The main difference in 04 and 06 in my respectful opinion was made up of students and a few other groups which benefit mainly the NDP. In 04 they were not present but were in 06 because of the time of year. Those same floaters are likely to be available to the NDP this time around. Advantage Chow
The demographics have changed with more 20-30 somethings moving in and more old retired people moving into condos, all of these condos are pretty pricy in fact so this would indicate an advantage to Innes and even allow for a bump in Con votes I would respectfully suggest this would be advantage Innes
The fiasco with Elizabeth May (What the heck was Layton thinking!) this riding is very much in play. A portion of the voters will not take kindly to the spouse of Layton being so anti-democratic and may take it out on her and even if we say its 500 votes that could be a 1000 shift in total off Chows numbers -Advantage Innes
The Con vote (I don't think of Harper as a Tory in the old PC mould) could also swing this riding if instead of voting PC they decide to vote Chow to keep the seat from the grits. After all the only way they win this one is if Chow and Innes get run down by the same bus on the way to vote. This seems to be an advantage to Chow
The big point being we are barely a few days in and consequently anything can happen and the pool of true non-partisan voters in this riding is very small. What will tip them one way or another-(hey if I knew that I could make a mint selling my services).
I still firmly beleive it will be 2000 votes or less and come down to feet on the ground unless the polls really move. The NDP and Grits both have solid foot soliders so it may well be the direction of the overall campaign that settles this one. Its to close to call right now and too far away from Oct 14
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
The concept of momentum seems lost on people here. Ianno barely lost last time out but he barely won in 2004. Ianno held the seat as the Liberals were able to blackmail Dippers to vote for them to prevent our ‘hidden agenda’
Ianno narrowly lost this seat when the Liberals arrogant belief in entitlement to govern was negated by thier corruption.
Ianno is not here. I don't care if his wife is running this time, the Liberal magic is not here. The Liberals will not take this seat back while lefties in the city look to oppose the Conservatives and they KNOW that in Trinity Spadina Olivia Chow can win. Chow is a known political entity with history. Mrs. Ianno serving tea at her husband's functions in 2004 2006 do not measure up to Chow.
There is NO Liberal momentum here, this is a riding where the greens steal votes from them (not the Dippers) and watch Olivia Chow to open up a bigger lead, one more realistic than the 2006 squeaker.
There has to be momentum nationally for the Libs to take back seats. As of today that isn't happening.
08 09 09 MH
GK evidently knows little about NDP strength either in Spadina in or the rest of the country. The NDP has always been a strong presence in T-S (and Spadina before it), but it was in the Liberal column from 1993 to 2006. Olivia Chow won it in 2006 by roughly 3,700 votes out of more than 60,000 cast: hardly a landslide. There are some constituencies out West that qualify for the description ‘Fortress NDP’; Trinity-Spadina doesn't. That said, the NDP's chances look good here, but this early in the campaign T-S is still TCTC.
08 09 08 RedFish?BlueFish?
Trinity-Spadina played host to the Liberal Party AGM in 2007. The speakers all assured Tony Ianno that it was still ‘his’ riding. This sort of thinking, as well as guys like Ianno can explain why the Liberals are on a low ebb. The NDP is especially good at targeting ridings in general, particularly this type of riding. I think they made the mistake of taking this riding for granted in 2004 and the mistake was not repeated in 2006. Also, don't underestimate the power of incumbency, both local and federal, in this type of riding.
08 09 08 Old Willowdaler
This riding has always been a tough one. Over the years its changed from a liberal stalwart held (parts of it) by the likes of Paul Hellyer, Peter Stollery and Aideen Nicholson. It shifted in to NDP hands under Dan Heap before returning under Ianno. Although Oliva now holds is not a guarantee. The riding's demographics have shifted with more condos and younger voters moving in and becoming oddly a bit less ‘ethnic’ Now I know all my NDP friends feel that they have a lock on that demographic the truth is the Greens, the Grits and believe it or not Tories also get votes from this block of voters. From what I understand Christine Innes (Ianno) is runing for the grits and is Tony's spouse, a lawyer and a campaigner in her own right. Olivia of course is Jack's spouse and had represented the area under various levels of government. While she will no doubt get some additional advantage from Jack she also is unpopular with certain segments of the riding and cannot assume she will get the chinese vote (its pretty split among the big 3 parties) Tony of course made his presence known to a greater degree than Olivia has but since Christine Innes is known only in Liberal circles this means she hasn't the name recognition. This riding is I must say without a doubt one of the dirtest I have come across in my 30 years in party politics with voter padding, voting mailboxes and other questionable electoral tactics so it comes down to some degree on main power and the ability to stop cheating. People in this area DO NOT like Harper that is the only thing I find is universal the question stands. Will they stick with Olivia or will they shift to Christine to stop Harper's majority? 36 days out I agree its beyond too close to call and this time I think will be back to its traditional 1500 votes or less margin
08 09 08 PH
This is a riding which ought to be a more reliably Liberal riding than it has been in practice. Tony Ianno has left a lot of Liberal votes on the table because of the perception in my part of the riding (the Annex) that he has been a less than stellar MP (Olivia has not scored many points in that regard either). Compared to Rosedale next door, which always attracts star Liberal candidates, TS has been treated as a bit of a dumping ground. The way the switch has been presented thus far makes TS feel like a South American country where Evita follows Juan (with apologies to Argentina to whom the comparison is no doubt unfair). I believe that Christinne Innes would be a better MP than Ianno (admittedly a low standard to meet) However, who gets to represent this riding, and indeed who gets to run for the Liberal Party, is not a private family matter for the Ianno/Innes family to decide. It was a mistake for the Liberal Party to allow Ianno to renominate himself before any other potential candidate had time to emerge. It is another mistake to allow for the perpetuation of one family rule.
If the national issue is, as it appears to be, between a Conservative majority and a Conservative minority, what happens in TS will not influence the result, since there is no likelihhod of the riding going Conservative. Unless I hear a better explanation as to what happened, this Liberal is sitting on his hands.
08 09 08 King of Kensington
Tony Ianno was never a ‘star candidate’ - he only won in the first place in the Liberal landslide of '93 and kept winning because of the massive advantage the Liberal brand holds in Toronto. Christine Innes is no star candidate either.
Christine Innes adds little to the ticket and I agree with A.S. - this riding is likely to have a ‘Layton vs. Coyne’-type result.
As for the suggestion that U of T's business majors won't vote for the NDP - so what? They are only a small minority of U of T students. Have a look at the results for the U of T polls (54 and 55) - they went overwhelmingly for Olivia last time.
08 09 07 LB
This is going to be an exiting race! Christine Innes has been the driving force behind Tony Ianno’s candidacy in the riding since 1988. She is a strong candidate with an intimate knowledge of the riding and has friends at every corner of it. The full force of the Ianno campaign machine will be steadfast in their support of her. This riding does not want to elect a Conservative member. It has been Liberal/NDP for years. People in this riding know that they only hope of defeating Stephen Harper is to elect more Liberals. Some may have ‘leant their vote’ to the NDP last time, but this time many of those same people know that they need to give it back this time or face the consequences of another Conservative government (perhaps even a majority).
08 09 06 GK
What is this still doing in the TC column? Over the last two elections, this riding has transformed into Fortress NDP (maybe the only riding in the country where that can be said!). The Liberals have lost their star candidate and the NDP is drawing on an immense pool of manpower. Strategic considerations aside, Olivia will win this comfortably with an increased plurality.
08 09 06 Porter
As most of the Liberal posters on this page have mentioned over and over, Tony was the one to beat for Chow. With him suddenly stepping aside at the 11th hour this is no longer too close to call. Tony is still around supporting the riding organizing for his wife (the replacement candidate) but without his name recognition on the ballot it won't be close.
Expect some movement of NDP resources from here to support Peggy Nash in the fight against Kennedy.
08 09 05 PY
Well, in a Kirchneresque turn of events, Christine Innes, wife of Tony Ianno, will now run as the Liberal candidate. Nevertheless, all my previous arguments still apply.
In the time that I've come to live in this riding, I've found her to be quite passionate, charismatic and certainly not lacking in energy. Having experienced the ups and downs of her husband's campaigns first-hand, she's far from being raw as far as her candidacy goes and could well give Olivia a run for her money.
It turns out the Conservatives already had a candidate for a little while in Christine McGirr, but she won't be a factor.
Anyway, these ‘new adventures of old Christine’ (Innes, that is) should prove interesting and possibly give Olivia Chow a headache or two, if not the odd nightmare.
08 09 05 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
I only saw Tony Ianno two weeks ago at a Liberal function, making noise about how he'll help turn Trinity Spadina back to Liberal Red, and Dion was there too! Now apparently Ianno has stepped down to allow his wife, Christine Innes, to run in his stead against Olivia Chow. You know, at least Chow went out and found a riding on her own to run in!
I'm changing my mind on this one. Chow will keep this riding hands down. The Liberals definitely dropped the ball on this one.
08 08 14 PY
Adam Vaughan is his own man, but hasn't necessarily been fond of Chow for some time, as far as I know.
Amongst the students, those who are tied to either the prominent student associations or the campus clubs of the various political parties will be the likeliest to vote. But I want to stress that the business students should not be lumped into the NDP fold. Speaking as a former business student myself, it'll be difficult to find anyone who studies at Rotman (U of T) or the business school at Ryerson who takes the NDP seriously or is considering them. Everyone else on campus is otherwise a toss-up.
It was also interesting to have read that Sam Goldstein got into it at the Ethics Committee hearings into the in-and-out scandal; this after trying to shed light into what's been rumoured for some time about questionable election day tactics by the NDP which Elections Canada investigated but couldn't ultimately prove.
It'll be the condo dwellers and not necessarily the students who will be the key to whoever wins this seat. The person who'll get the Conservative nomination will certainly be tainted, Chow not so much.
08 06 23 Beetle Bailey
T/C/T/C for this one. Olivia will win if the election is between Sept - April, but lose is the election is from May - August. She needs the students for her to win.
08 05 18 Torontonian537
Trinity-Spadina will, as usual, be one of the nastiest races in Canada, and Chow will hold on for another narrow victory. Liberals have made much of the gains the Greens made at the NDP's expense during the March by-elections. It's worth noting that NDP never had a chance in either Willowdale or Toronto Centre, freeing up many Dippers to cast protest votes (or stay home). Extrapolating the results into Liberal pickups in strong NDP seats like Trinity-Spadina during a general election seems unjustified. Additionally, Ianno has been out of office (and the public eye) for two years, and still has many enemies.
08 04 01 King of Kensington
First of all, Adam Vaughan is NOT a Liberal. He is a very progressive councillor. Politically he is very much aligned with Olivia Chow and is no ally of Tony Ianno (i.e. on the Port Authority, the Island Airport, etc.) The results of a municipal election should have no bearing on federal results, especially in the case of Ward 20 where you had two progressive candidates and people voted more on personality than ideology.
Second, in the byelection next door Bob Rae was clearly a star candidate who while not liked among card-carrying NDPers, is very popular with the type of people who often vote NDP. Ianno is definitely NOT a star candidate and definitely not appealing to soft NDPers, especially now that the seat is already held by the NDP and that strategic voting is no longer a factor.
Third, I'd put more stock in the recent Ipsos-Reid poll than in a byelection result in a safe Liberal riding with a star candidate, which has the Liberals and Tories tied at 35% and the NDP at 21%. Angus Reid said that he can't remember a time when an Opposition leader had such a low approval rating.
08 03 31 Peg Leg Pete
No doubt the results of the by-elections will give Ianno's campaign team a boost. From what I understand Ianno already has plenty of cash in the bank to run a very big campaign against Chow. Clearly having a leader from Toronto is not helping the NDP hold off the charging Green Party. In the end I think the Green Party will help hand Trinity-Spadina back to the Liberals by 1500 votes.
08 03 24 PY
More food for thought: if we're citing Kate Holloway provincially, then maybe we should also consider that Adam Vaughan stemmed the tide to beat Chow's friend Helen Kennedy in the last municipal election. The independent campaign against Joe Pantalone in my ward also created a bit of buzz.
Anyway, it's clear that Chow has to do more to woo the condo dwellers. Having her mailings from Ottawa slow to a trickle only to dry up lately isn't helpful at all. Neither is a recent Globe article questioning Layton's leadership (horror of horrors).
08 03 22 Curley, Larry and Moe
Jack Layton and the NDP had a bad week with the results in the by-elections, finishing 3rd in on of them and basically tying with the Green Party in the other. Clearly the Green Party has some momentum and the votes they're picking up are from the NDP. In the case of Trinity-Spadina, Ianno just has to hold his level of support and let the Green Party chip away at Chow and he will win the seat. The Conservative vote in the by-elections was also down this week. That's more good news for Ianno as he can go to the doors in all those new condos in this riding and tell voters that the only way to get rid of Chow is to vote for him.
NDPers we tried to talk to this week wouldn't say a word about the results. No spin at all. That's how bad it is. Ianno looks like he'll take the seat.
08 03 16 R.O.
Suspect the ndp can hold on to this seat. Now that Olivia Chow has been the mp for a couple of years. It has also been a largely ndp riding over the years and is ndp provincially. But Tony Ianno is a strong candidate for the liberals and well known as he was mp for many years but taking back this riding might be a bit harder now then it was to first win in 93. as I suspect the ndp will put a lot of effort into making sure they hold this one, its more important to the ndp then the liberals.
08 03 13 Doug The Slug
Everything old is new again. Reading the previous post here about how condos popping up in Trinity-Spadina reminds me of the same posts made about this riding in 2006. Back then there weren't enough condo owners to put Iano over the top. By 2009 there will be and Iano will ride this new support to victory over Chow. Just one of many NDP ridings that will go back to the Liberals next time people vote
08 03 09
With every year, more condos go up in T-S, meaning more Liberal and Tory voters. It will all depend on the state of Ianno's machine. Chow milked her city council office for all the free advertising she could get. Living in the riding, I got literally a mailing a week from her. She won't have that advantage this time. If Ianno's machine is in the spectacular form of previous elections and he manages to pull the condo vote, he could take it back. He's still got strong support from a lot of the major groups in the riding, especially (interestingly enough) the Chinese community. On the other hand, Chow has the strong advantage of incumbency and profile, along with what I'd call ‘Ianno fatigue’ in the riding. I'd ordinarily lean NDP for this riding, but considering their abysmal state in the polls right now, the Liberals have a very good chance.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
I have to agree with ‘The Slug’ on this one. Ianno will win in one the nastiest campaigns anywhere in Canada. The Liberals always had the better campaign organization in Trinity-Spadina and with them coming up in the polls over where they were in 2006 and the eternal problem of Chow wanting to campaign nationally with her husband and still finding time to be in the riding will give the Liberals the victory. I predict Ianno wins by 1500 votes.
08 02 28 MGK
Quick Draw, of course the Liberals are way ahead of Ontario as a whole. They always are, because they are the only party that does well all over the province. But we are not talking about Ontario as an aggregate. We are talking about a single riding. The NDP wouldn't do well in a hypothetical province-wide at-large election, because its supoprt is concentrated in a few areas, but this is one of those areas -- Trinity-Spadina has the largest NDP membership in the country.
I live here, and I don't see any major changes that would suggest Chow would have a harder time, or Ianno an easier time, than in 2006. So, I'm sticking with my prediction of another narrow victory for the NDP incumbent.
08 02 22 Doug the Slug
A.S. shows very clearly it's going to be a very dirty race in Trinity-Spadina as the NDP will do anything to hang on to this riding for Jack's wife. I think Ianno has a slight edge on Chow. It's going to come down to who can drag their identified voted to the polls on election day in Trinity-Spadina. Since the NDP have a problem with Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park and also have to help out Chow, I think there will be a split in the number of party workers they can put on the street for election day. This will give the Liberals an edge that will end up handing the riding to Ianno again.
Chow will end up on the payroll in Jack's office in Ottawa along with Marilyn Churley. Don't worry, A.S., there's no majority government for anyone this time so Chow will get another shot at Ianno in 18 months or so.
08 02 17 A.S.
...and if the New Democratic Party is over, why are you predicting Parkdale-High Park for Peggy Nash over Gerard Kennedy? Honestly, Quick Draw/I'm Always Right; from your conduct on EPP, I'd swear you're one of those nomination-stacking partisan goons who have, rightly or wrongly, tarred folks like Ianno by association even within their own party...
08 02 09 Quick Draw
No surprise to see the last of the Dipper hold outs like King of Kensington all over the Trinity-Spadina riding predicting an easy victory for Chow. I hate to rain on the King's parade with a little reality but here goes. The Grits have a HUGE lead in the latest polls for while Layton and the NDP fight it out with May and the Greens for fourth place in Ontario. Chow is going to lose votes to the Greens this spring while Iano with his right wing record will pick up strategic votes from the CPC supporters because they can't stand Chow and are willing to park their votes with the Grits this time to get rid of her. It's riding like this that make Layton attack the Green party every chance he gets because he knows May is passing his party by. Sorry King, Iano wins this time. Time for Jack Layton to turn out the lights, the New Democratic Party is over.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
The Liberals can't win this back with Ianno. Barring a major defector that everyone respects like Michael Valpy, who last ran for the NDP, or the ultimate defector Bob Rae (who's going to hold Toronto Centre forever), the best shot the Liberals have at this riding is non-obvious:
Kate Holloway. She lifted the Liberals' provincial vote in this riding in 2007 by five per cent taken off the popular NDP Rosario Marchese. At the same time the Green Party of Ontario vote rose to a ridiculous eleven per cent. The candidate, Dan King, is not going to be running for either the GPC or GPO again, and is friendly with Holloway. The organization King put together is falling apart. His votes will likely shift over to her in the next provincial election if she runs again, and she can beat Rosario.
Holloway herself was elected the Chief Agent, that is, the money officer, of the Green Party of Canada by a higher percentage of the vote than Elizabeth May got, in 2006. That was despite (or because of) a vicious smear campaign against her by Jim Harris and Wayne Crookes (look them up, anyone they hate you got to like). A 2/3 majority when the top figures in the party are trying to smear you out of existence - Crookes even sued her as part of his campaign to shut down the entire Internet - now that's some serious political ability. She left the GPC for the Liberals after it became clear that the GPC's new constitution stripped her of all power to make the reforms in that party she wanted to make. She has many friends in both the GPC and NDP, including the brain trust she put together as the fundraising chair in 2004-6 - a post she won with 90 per cent of the vote.
Given that they are both big fans of the late Jane Jacobs, and have the same vision for the city, Holloway might be able to pick up the endorsement of the now-ex-NDP Mayor David Miller, who used to be Councillor or neighbouring Parkdale High Park.
The Green vote is not so high federally as it was provincially but given how much more popular Elizabeth May is than Jim Harris, a Liberal who is not able to draw Green votes can't unseat the popular Chow in this riding.
Chow herself is vulnerable only because she doesn't have the green profile her bike-riding husband does, and because the Chinese vote in this riding is not as strong or likely to move as a bloc as it used to be.
08 01 19 King of Kensington
If Bob Rae wanted a challenge and ran in this riding the Libs would be competitive because he could do well among the intelligentsia who are soft NDPers. But with Ianno, forget it!
I think most people were pretty surprised to see that Rosario Marchese lost ground in the last provincial election. Many NDPers voted Green as a protest because Rosario was a shoo-in and thus the stakes were so low. But these voters certainly don't want Ianno to win and would thus vote for Olivia Chow in the next federal election.
07 12 10 seasaw
This one'll be close. Tony's been a good MP for over 12 years, Olivia's been a good councillor. PM Harper's shown good leadership, and is inching close to majority territory. Whenever there's prospects of Tory majority, as it will probably be this time around, especially if the election is called after a Tory budget, the soft NDP vote tends to go to the Libs. This time, the Liberals will be courting those votes since many, Lib/Tory switchers'll probably vote Tory due to Dion's leadership. I'm guessing Tony'll take this riding back for the Liberals by about 1,000 votes.
07 10 27 King of Kensington
Rosario Marchese won by a fairly comfortable margin but it was much closer than expected. The Liberal vote stayed the same and the NDP lost a lot of votes to the Greens (I suspect largely due to their very sensible stance on religious school funding).
Still, I think Olivia should be re-elected by a comfortable margin. First of all her opponent is Tony Ianno who certainly aggressively campaigns. However he is very personally unappealing and in some ways that is worse than having some no-name Liberal run. Second Jack Layton is more popular in downtown Toronto than Howard Hampton is and I think Jack and Olivia are less likely to lose votes to the Greens. Third the federal Liberals under Dion's leadership are in much worse shape than their provincial counterparts.
07 10 22 Ancastarian
While this one will be tight, I give the advantage to Chow. She’s a former city Counsellor with a lot of name recognition, and with NDP numbers climbing in Ontario, she should be able to hold here. Being the partner of Jack Layton should help!
07 10 18 MGK
The most important block of swing voters in this district are ABC (Anybody But Conservatives). They generally like the NDP, but are often willing to vote Liberal if they see the Liberals as the best way to keep the Conservatives out. With Dion choosing not to pull the plug on the government, the Grits will have a much tougher time convincing these voters. Sure, there are a lot of Canadians who would rather not have another vote yet, but those aren't the ones who decide elections in downtown Toronto. Olivia Chow should be able to hang onto this seat.
07 10 17 Arthur
I'm not going to call this for the Liberals for sure, but Olivia Chow's been a lot lower-profile here than she was as a councillor. We used to get a mailing from her almost every week. The national media also used to focus on her but we haven't heard much at all there either. The provincial Liberal candidate ran a pretty poor campaign with almost no visibility and she still did way better than expected. Whatever you may think of him personally, Ianno always runs an amazing local campaign. With the NDP down province-wide and a huge number of new condos which are much less NDP than the Annex, Ianno might just take it back.
07 09 17 PY
Olivia's gradually being lost in the shuffle of the NDP caucus (by the likes of Dawn Black, Peggy Nash and Nathan Cullen amongst others). Thomas Mulclair as the newest MP for Outremont may well overshadow her too. Contrary to the Annexois, there are those in the Chinese community who are starting to doubt if not distrust her, even going as far as to ask, ‘what is she doing now?’
Don't count Ianno out. While he's not everyone's cup of tea, he will be the one to beat.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
I live and vote here. Word is Ianno has been nominated for the Liberals again. Many Liberals can’t even stand the guy. He’s not really very popular amongst the masses, and if it’s just going to be a rematch, we re just going to see a mirror of the results from last time.
07 09 14 An Annexois
I wouldn't count Olivia out. She is quite visible in the community and approachable. She also still has a lot of name recognition and a good standing with the Chinese and student communities.
The Liberals had their days here but the best they can do here is a solid second.
07 06 07 binriso
Well there are quite a few NDP Ontario MP's in trouble because of star candidates running against them and low poll numbers and so forth. Olivia sure isn?t safe here either although she probably has a slight advantage over Ianno here. TCTC for now but i could see this going Liberal or NDP in the election.
07 04 07 A.S.
I know what a lot of you are thinking: the perfect ‘small-l liberal intelligentsia’ candidate for T-S would be Adam Vaughan, no question. But he's probably got more (nominal?) respect for Olivia that for he who preceded her, even if the former worked against and the latter worked for his municipal machine. Now that the boss of the Layton/Chow household has crossed the electability threshold, incumbency *does* matter, condo fungus or no condo fungus. Given who's running, unless the Liberals really succeed this time at the AudreyAlexa-era NDP = wasted vote gambit, Chow's likely to make it Chow Chow, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Ianno gets more of a Deborah Coyne-level share than a Dennis Mills-level share. Though given the demos here vs Toronto-Danforth (and as at T-D in '06, for that matter), that might depend upon a marked Conservative + Green rise filling the vacuum...
07 04 03 King of Kensington
If the Liberals nominated a candidate who could cut into the small-l liberal intelligentsia vote then I'd say this would be a close race. But they've nominated Tony Ianno again. Even many card-carrying Liberals can't stand Ianno.
And very few UofT students even vote in this riding and they don't vote all that differently from the rest of the riding. I expect Olivia to win by a bigger margin than last time.
07 04 02 PY
Olivia doesn't sit on any parliamentary committees, so it's hard to determine whether she's done any significant work since making the move to Ottawa.
Pat Martin's comments and l'affaire Bernier might well be weighing on her mind and maybe some NDPers in TS as well.
Should the ongoing Dion tour prove successful (he'll be in TS this week) and more NDPers raise doubts about Jack and Olivia, a Liberal comeback might not be such a surprise.
07 03 30 CGD
Tony Ianno lost by a margin of less than 3,000 votes in 2006. Chow benefited from thousands of campus votes from University of Toronto students. When you look at the turnout increase (70%) it is clear that holding that election during winter as opposed to June 2004 gave Chow key NPD student votes. This will not happen if the election is held after April. Regardless of this, I think Chow has done very little impressive work. Tony Ianno has the best war-machine and will win this riding.
07 03 30 Joe J.
Liberals predicting Chow's loss based on 'the decline in the NDP' are ignoring the fact that the Liberals are also down at least as much as the NDP in most polls. One has them down as low as 22%.
Having said that, polls this early are mostly meaningless. Oliva will win it as she is a high profile incumbent with a good reputation - and Ianno is pond scum.
07 03 26 G. Kennedy (not that one)
This is one of the most interesting races in the country. Bear and Ape are largely accurate in their assessment. This race will be won or lost in the campaign depending on how Liberal and NDP fortunes are doing on a larger scale. Chow has a massive team, but so does Ianno. And this is the #1 riding in Toronto the Liberals will be pushing resources into as Kennedy should win with relative ease and the 19 currently held ridings should be easy keeps.
That ‘small factor’ Bear and Ape speak of could very well come with respect to when the election occurs. If it is May or June (or, God forbid, July or August), then Olivia will be losing one of her key groups: the U of T students. Could make a difference in what promises to be a tight race.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
With Ianno running again and Chow's vulnerability this is going to be an interesting race, however it is very premature to predict a certain loss for Chow. As we are not actually into an election campaign, NDP loses, Green gains or fluctuations in Liberal fortunes may be transient and could drastically change between now and the actual vote. Keep in mind that in a tight riding such as this, a small factor may make or break a candidate. Interesting to watch!
07 03 21 M. Lunn
This is now my riding and could really go either way. The new condominiums along the Lakeshore should help the Liberals, but Olivia Chow does have strong name recognition and there still are a lot of young people who live here and buy into the NDP socialist policies. The Green Party could also play a role depending on who they steal the most votes from.
07 03 21 King of Kensington
Having Tony Ianno reacclaimed as the Liberal candidate here will only solidify Olivia Chow's reelection chances further. Ianno very much represents the old style of machine politics that reminds one of Tammany Hall and Richard Daley Sr. that may work with the riding's shrinking Italian and Portuguese electorate but doesn't exactly inspire the condo dwellers and certainly will not appeal to soft NDP voters the Liberals need to take the seat back.
07 03 21 Red Robin
Tony is running again, and with the fading fortunes of the NDP, the organizational excellence of Tony's team, and the desire for progressive Toronto residents to see the conservatives removed from power, I would predict that this riding returns to the Liberals in the next election.
07 03 20 L. Nino
There are so many high profile Liberals looking for places to run that it is hard to imagine Chow, who lost here twice and barely won in 2006, won't fall, given the general decline in the NDP vote. Even Layton is vulnerable if the NDP doesn't make some kind of deal to stay alive with either the Liberals or Greens.
If Martha runs in this riding, as she's widely expected to, goodbye Olivia.
Olivia has a happy future in provincial politics, but federally Layton has failed, and Olivia is obviously too closely associated with him to survive his decline.
Editor Note: Tony Ianno is to be acclaimed as Liberal candidate here on 22nd March 2007.

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