08 04 01	King of Kensington 74.15.84.77
First of all, Adam Vaughan is NOT a Liberal. He is a very progressive councillor. Politically he is very much aligned with Olivia Chow and is no ally of Tony Ianno (i.e. on the Port Authority, the Island Airport, etc.) The results of a municipal election should have no bearing on federal results, especially in the case of Ward 20 where you had two progressive candidates and people voted more on personality than ideology. Second, in the byelection next door Bob Rae was clearly a star candidate who while not liked among card-carrying NDPers, is very popular with the type of people who often vote NDP. Ianno is definitely NOT a star candidate and definitely not appealing to soft NDPers, especially now that the seat is already held by the NDP and that strategic voting is no longer a factor. Third, I'd put more stock in the recent Ipsos-Reid poll than in a byelection result in a safe Liberal riding with a star candidate, which has the Liberals and Tories tied at 35% and the NDP at 21%. Angus Reid said that he can't remember a time when an Opposition leader had such a low approval rating.
	08 03 31	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
No doubt the results of the by-elections will give Ianno's campaign team a boost. From what I understand Ianno already has plenty of cash in the bank to run a very big campaign against Chow. Clearly having a leader from Toronto is not helping the NDP hold off the charging Green Party. In the end I think the Green Party will help hand Trinity-Spadina back to the Liberals by 1500 votes.
	08 03 24	PY 70.51.125.32
More food for thought: if we're citing Kate Holloway provincially, then maybe we should also consider that Adam Vaughan stemmed the tide to beat Chow's friend Helen Kennedy in the last municipal election. The independent campaign against Joe Pantalone in my ward also created a bit of buzz. Anyway, it's clear that Chow has to do more to woo the condo dwellers. Having her mailings from Ottawa slow to a trickle only to dry up lately isn't helpful at all. Neither is a recent Globe article questioning Layton's leadership (horror of horrors).
	08 03 22	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
Jack Layton and the NDP had a bad week with the results in the by-elections, finishing 3rd in on of them and basically tying with the Green Party in the other. Clearly the Green Party has some momentum and the votes they're picking up are from the NDP. In the case of Trinity-Spadina, Ianno just has to hold his level of support and let the Green Party chip away at Chow and he will win the seat. The Conservative vote in the by-elections was also down this week. That's more good news for Ianno as he can go to the doors in all those new condos in this riding and tell voters that the only way to get rid of Chow is to vote for him. NDPers we tried to talk to this week wouldn't say a word about the results. No spin at all. That's how bad it is. Ianno looks like he'll take the seat.
	08 03 16	R.O. 209.91.149.169
Suspect the ndp can hold on to this seat. Now that Olivia Chow has been the mp for a couple of years. It has also been a largely ndp riding over the years and is ndp provincially. But Tony Ianno is a strong candidate for the liberals and well known as he was mp for many years but taking back this riding might be a bit harder now then it was to first win in 93. as I suspect the ndp will put a lot of effort into making sure they hold this one, its more important to the ndp then the liberals.
	08 03 13	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.21
Everything old is new again. Reading the previous post here about how condos popping up in Trinity-Spadina reminds me of the same posts made about this riding in 2006. Back then there weren't enough condo owners to put Iano over the top. By 2009 there will be and Iano will ride this new support to victory over Chow. Just one of many NDP ridings that will go back to the Liberals next time people vote
	08 03 09	209.202.78.177
With every year, more condos go up in T-S, meaning more Liberal and Tory voters. It will all depend on the state of Ianno's machine. Chow milked her city council office for all the free advertising she could get. Living in the riding, I got literally a mailing a week from her. She won't have that advantage this time. If Ianno's machine is in the spectacular form of previous elections and he manages to pull the condo vote, he could take it back. He's still got strong support from a lot of the major groups in the riding, especially (interestingly enough) the Chinese community. On the other hand, Chow has the strong advantage of incumbency and profile, along with what I'd call ‘Ianno fatigue’ in the riding. I'd ordinarily lean NDP for this riding, but considering their abysmal state in the polls right now, the Liberals have a very good chance.
	08 02 29	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
I have to agree with ‘The Slug’ on this one. Ianno will win in one the nastiest campaigns anywhere in Canada. The Liberals always had the better campaign organization in Trinity-Spadina and with them coming up in the polls over where they were in 2006 and the eternal problem of Chow wanting to campaign nationally with her husband and still finding time to be in the riding will give the Liberals the victory. I predict Ianno wins by 1500 votes.
	08 02 28	MGK 70.53.50.3
Quick Draw, of course the Liberals are way ahead of Ontario as a whole. They always are, because they are the only party that does well all over the province. But we are not talking about Ontario as an aggregate. We are talking about a single riding. The NDP wouldn't do well in a hypothetical province-wide at-large election, because its supoprt is concentrated in a few areas, but this is one of those areas -- Trinity-Spadina has the largest NDP membership in the country. I live here, and I don't see any major changes that would suggest Chow would have a harder time, or Ianno an easier time, than in 2006. So, I'm sticking with my prediction of another narrow victory for the NDP incumbent.
	08 02 22	Doug the Slug 192.30.202.21
A.S. shows very clearly it's going to be a very dirty race in Trinity-Spadina as the NDP will do anything to hang on to this riding for Jack's wife. I think Ianno has a slight edge on Chow. It's going to come down to who can drag their identified voted to the polls on election day in Trinity-Spadina. Since the NDP have a problem with Peggy Nash in Parkdale-High Park and also have to help out Chow, I think there will be a split in the number of party workers they can put on the street for election day. This will give the Liberals an edge that will end up handing the riding to Ianno again. Chow will end up on the payroll in Jack's office in Ottawa along with Marilyn Churley. Don't worry, A.S., there's no majority government for anyone this time so Chow will get another shot at Ianno in 18 months or so.
	08 02 17	A.S. 99.233.96.153
...and if the New Democratic Party is over, why are you predicting Parkdale-High Park for Peggy Nash over Gerard Kennedy? Honestly, Quick Draw/I'm Always Right; from your conduct on EPP, I'd swear you're one of those nomination-stacking partisan goons who have, rightly or wrongly, tarred folks like Ianno by association even within their own party...
	08 02 09	Quick Draw 69.49.33.94
No surprise to see the last of the Dipper hold outs like King of Kensington all over the Trinity-Spadina riding predicting an easy victory for Chow. I hate to rain on the King's parade with a little reality but here goes. The Grits have a HUGE lead in the latest polls for while Layton and the NDP fight it out with May and the Greens for fourth place in Ontario. Chow is going to lose votes to the Greens this spring while Iano with his right wing record will pick up strategic votes from the CPC supporters because they can't stand Chow and are willing to park their votes with the Grits this time to get rid of her. It's riding like this that make Layton attack the Green party every chance he gets because he knows May is passing his party by. Sorry King, Iano wins this time. Time for Jack Layton to turn out the lights, the New Democratic Party is over.
	08 02 06	A. Lewis 142.177.99.116
The Liberals can't win this back with Ianno. Barring a major defector that everyone respects like Michael Valpy, who last ran for the NDP, or the ultimate defector Bob Rae (who's going to hold Toronto Centre forever), the best shot the Liberals have at this riding is non-obvious: Kate Holloway. She lifted the Liberals' provincial vote in this riding in 2007 by five per cent taken off the popular NDP Rosario Marchese. At the same time the Green Party of Ontario vote rose to a ridiculous eleven per cent. The candidate, Dan King, is not going to be running for either the GPC or GPO again, and is friendly with Holloway. The organization King put together is falling apart. His votes will likely shift over to her in the next provincial election if she runs again, and she can beat Rosario. Holloway herself was elected the Chief Agent, that is, the money officer, of the Green Party of Canada by a higher percentage of the vote than Elizabeth May got, in 2006. That was despite (or because of) a vicious smear campaign against her by Jim Harris and Wayne Crookes (look them up, anyone they hate you got to like). A 2/3 majority when the top figures in the party are trying to smear you out of existence - Crookes even sued her as part of his campaign to shut down the entire Internet - now that's some serious political ability. She left the GPC for the Liberals after it became clear that the GPC's new constitution stripped her of all power to make the reforms in that party she wanted to make. She has many friends in both the GPC and NDP, including the brain trust she put together as the fundraising chair in 2004-6 - a post she won with 90 per cent of the vote. Given that they are both big fans of the late Jane Jacobs, and have the same vision for the city, Holloway might be able to pick up the endorsement of the now-ex-NDP Mayor David Miller, who used to be Councillor or neighbouring Parkdale High Park. The Green vote is not so high federally as it was provincially but given how much more popular Elizabeth May is than Jim Harris, a Liberal who is not able to draw Green votes can't unseat the popular Chow in this riding. Chow herself is vulnerable only because she doesn't have the green profile her bike-riding husband does, and because the Chinese vote in this riding is not as strong or likely to move as a bloc as it used to be.
	08 01 19	King of Kensington 70.52.184.9
If Bob Rae wanted a challenge and ran in this riding the Libs would be competitive because he could do well among the intelligentsia who are soft NDPers. But with Ianno, forget it! I think most people were pretty surprised to see that Rosario Marchese lost ground in the last provincial election. Many NDPers voted Green as a protest because Rosario was a shoo-in and thus the stakes were so low. But these voters certainly don't want Ianno to win and would thus vote for Olivia Chow in the next federal election.
	07 12 10	seasaw 99.225.19.235
This one'll be close. Tony's been a good MP for over 12 years, Olivia's been a good councillor. PM Harper's shown good leadership, and is inching close to majority territory. Whenever there's prospects of Tory majority, as it will probably be this time around, especially if the election is called after a Tory budget, the soft NDP vote tends to go to the Libs. This time, the Liberals will be courting those votes since many, Lib/Tory switchers'll probably vote Tory due to Dion's leadership. I'm guessing Tony'll take this riding back for the Liberals by about 1,000 votes.
	07 10 27	King of Kensington 74.13.104.55
Rosario Marchese won by a fairly comfortable margin but it was much closer than expected. The Liberal vote stayed the same and the NDP lost a lot of votes to the Greens (I suspect largely due to their very sensible stance on religious school funding). Still, I think Olivia should be re-elected by a comfortable margin. First of all her opponent is Tony Ianno who certainly aggressively campaigns. However he is very personally unappealing and in some ways that is worse than having some no-name Liberal run. Second Jack Layton is more popular in downtown Toronto than Howard Hampton is and I think Jack and Olivia are less likely to lose votes to the Greens. Third the federal Liberals under Dion's leadership are in much worse shape than their provincial counterparts.
	07 10 22	Ancastarian 24.226.51.212
While this one will be tight, I give the advantage to Chow. She’s a former city Counsellor with a lot of name recognition, and with NDP numbers climbing in Ontario, she should be able to hold here. Being the partner of Jack Layton should help!
	07 10 18	MGK 74.12.80.81
The most important block of swing voters in this district are ABC (Anybody But Conservatives). They generally like the NDP, but are often willing to vote Liberal if they see the Liberals as the best way to keep the Conservatives out. With Dion choosing not to pull the plug on the government, the Grits will have a much tougher time convincing these voters. Sure, there are a lot of Canadians who would rather not have another vote yet, but those aren't the ones who decide elections in downtown Toronto. Olivia Chow should be able to hang onto this seat.
	07 10 17	Arthur 67.159.5.254
I'm not going to call this for the Liberals for sure, but Olivia Chow's been a lot lower-profile here than she was as a councillor. We used to get a mailing from her almost every week. The national media also used to focus on her but we haven't heard much at all there either. The provincial Liberal candidate ran a pretty poor campaign with almost no visibility and she still did way better than expected. Whatever you may think of him personally, Ianno always runs an amazing local campaign. With the NDP down province-wide and a huge number of new condos which are much less NDP than the Annex, Ianno might just take it back.
	07 09 17	PY 70.51.120.239
Olivia's gradually being lost in the shuffle of the NDP caucus (by the likes of Dawn Black, Peggy Nash and Nathan Cullen amongst others). Thomas Mulclair as the newest MP for Outremont may well overshadow her too. Contrary to the Annexois, there are those in the Chinese community who are starting to doubt if not distrust her, even going as far as to ask, ‘what is she doing now?’ Don't count Ianno out. While he's not everyone's cup of tea, he will be the one to beat.
	07 09 17	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
I live and vote here. Word is Ianno has been nominated for the Liberals again. Many Liberals can’t even stand the guy. He’s not really very popular amongst the masses, and if it’s just going to be a rematch, we re just going to see a mirror of the results from last time.
	07 09 14	An Annexois 199.212.129.2
I wouldn't count Olivia out. She is quite visible in the community and approachable. She also still has a lot of name recognition and a good standing with the Chinese and student communities. The Liberals had their days here but the best they can do here is a solid second.
	07 06 07	binriso 156.34.223.78
Well there are quite a few NDP Ontario MP's in trouble because of star candidates running against them and low poll numbers and so forth. Olivia sure isn?t safe here either although she probably has a slight advantage over Ianno here. TCTC for now but i could see this going Liberal or NDP in the election.
	07 04 07	A.S. 74.99.222.209
I know what a lot of you are thinking: the perfect ‘small-l liberal intelligentsia’ candidate for T-S would be Adam Vaughan, no question. But he's probably got more (nominal?) respect for Olivia that for he who preceded her, even if the former worked against and the latter worked for his municipal machine. Now that the boss of the Layton/Chow household has crossed the electability threshold, incumbency *does* matter, condo fungus or no condo fungus. Given who's running, unless the Liberals really succeed this time at the AudreyAlexa-era NDP = wasted vote gambit, Chow's likely to make it Chow Chow, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Ianno gets more of a Deborah Coyne-level share than a Dennis Mills-level share. Though given the demos here vs Toronto-Danforth (and as at T-D in '06, for that matter), that might depend upon a marked Conservative + Green rise filling the vacuum...
	07 04 03	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
If the Liberals nominated a candidate who could cut into the small-l liberal intelligentsia vote then I'd say this would be a close race. But they've nominated Tony Ianno again. Even many card-carrying Liberals can't stand Ianno. And very few UofT students even vote in this riding and they don't vote all that differently from the rest of the riding. I expect Olivia to win by a bigger margin than last time.
	07 04 02	PY 70.51.138.201
Olivia doesn't sit on any parliamentary committees, so it's hard to determine whether she's done any significant work since making the move to Ottawa. Pat Martin's comments and l'affaire Bernier might well be weighing on her mind and maybe some NDPers in TS as well. Should the ongoing Dion tour prove successful (he'll be in TS this week) and more NDPers raise doubts about Jack and Olivia, a Liberal comeback might not be such a surprise.
	07 03 30	CGD 142.150.17.17
Tony Ianno lost by a margin of less than 3,000 votes in 2006. Chow benefited from thousands of campus votes from University of Toronto students. When you look at the turnout increase (70%) it is clear that holding that election during winter as opposed to June 2004 gave Chow key NPD student votes. This will not happen if the election is held after April. Regardless of this, I think Chow has done very little impressive work. Tony Ianno has the best war-machine and will win this riding.
	07 03 30	Joe J. 209.29.182.225
Liberals predicting Chow's loss based on 'the decline in the NDP' are ignoring the fact that the Liberals are also down at least as much as the NDP in most polls. One has them down as low as 22%. Having said that, polls this early are mostly meaningless. Oliva will win it as she is a high profile incumbent with a good reputation - and Ianno is pond scum.
	07 03 26	G. Kennedy (not that one) 63.250.102.243
This is one of the most interesting races in the country. Bear and Ape are largely accurate in their assessment. This race will be won or lost in the campaign depending on how Liberal and NDP fortunes are doing on a larger scale. Chow has a massive team, but so does Ianno. And this is the #1 riding in Toronto the Liberals will be pushing resources into as Kennedy should win with relative ease and the 19 currently held ridings should be easy keeps. That ‘small factor’ Bear and Ape speak of could very well come with respect to when the election occurs. If it is May or June (or, God forbid, July or August), then Olivia will be losing one of her key groups: the U of T students. Could make a difference in what promises to be a tight race.
	07 03 22	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.15.40.135
With Ianno running again and Chow's vulnerability this is going to be an interesting race, however it is very premature to predict a certain loss for Chow. As we are not actually into an election campaign, NDP loses, Green gains or fluctuations in Liberal fortunes may be transient and could drastically change between now and the actual vote. Keep in mind that in a tight riding such as this, a small factor may make or break a candidate. Interesting to watch!
	07 03 21	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
This is now my riding and could really go either way. The new condominiums along the Lakeshore should help the Liberals, but Olivia Chow does have strong name recognition and there still are a lot of young people who live here and buy into the NDP socialist policies. The Green Party could also play a role depending on who they steal the most votes from.
	07 03 21	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
Having Tony Ianno reacclaimed as the Liberal candidate here will only solidify Olivia Chow's reelection chances further. Ianno very much represents the old style of machine politics that reminds one of Tammany Hall and Richard Daley Sr. that may work with the riding's shrinking Italian and Portuguese electorate but doesn't exactly inspire the condo dwellers and certainly will not appeal to soft NDP voters the Liberals need to take the seat back.
	07 03 21	Red Robin 64.110.238.249
Tony is running again, and with the fading fortunes of the NDP, the organizational excellence of Tony's team, and the desire for progressive Toronto residents to see the conservatives removed from power, I would predict that this riding returns to the Liberals in the next election.
	07 03 20	L. Nino 142.177.82.37
There are so many high profile Liberals looking for places to run that it is hard to imagine Chow, who lost here twice and barely won in 2006, won't fall, given the general decline in the NDP vote. Even Layton is vulnerable if the NDP doesn't make some kind of deal to stay alive with either the Liberals or Greens. If Martha runs in this riding, as she's widely expected to, goodbye Olivia. Olivia has a happy future in provincial politics, but federally Layton has failed, and Olivia is obviously too closely associated with him to survive his decline. Editor Note: Tony Ianno is to be acclaimed as Liberal candidate here on 22nd March 2007.