Prediction Changed
6:35 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Animal Alliance Environment Voters
Crawford, Marie
Howarth, Sharon
Lang, Andrew
New Democratic
Layton, Jack
Perreault, Christina
Richardson, John
Rodden, Marcell
Canadian Action
Yazdanfar, Bahman

Hon. Jack Layton

2006 Result:
Jack Layton **
Deborah Coyne
Kren Clausen
Al Hart
Marcell Rodden

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 10 MGS
Layton will take the riding, but Liberal support will be, as always, surprisingly strong. The really interesting race is the one for third place. In a riding where the Conservatives traditionally do very poorly, there is a good chance that Sharon Howarth of the Greens (who has canvassed the riding numerous times in the fight against the Portlands energy centre) could push the governing party's candidate into fourth (!) place.
08 09 22 H
Being the leader of a national party, definitely helps you get elected. I think that Jack Layton will get elected, because people like him, he is seen as charismatic, and perseverant. Having a big name also helps. A cinch seat for the New Democrats, even if the green steal votes.
08 09 19 A.S.
As the mother of PET's youngest child, Deborah Coyne was hardly a ‘no name candidate’ for the Liberals--a lot less ‘no name’ than the offspring of a PET cabinet minister from long-ago yesteryear...
08 09 17 the ripper
I'm impressed with the number of votes the Liberals picked up last time with a no name candidate, 17000. thats a lot. that means there is a high liberal base in that area, I wonder what the green party is gonna do.
08 09 15 Ken Adams
Easy win for Jack Layton! This riding is NDP federally and provincially and Jack is a well-liked party leader who urban Torontonians love. No one else has a chance.
08 09 14 Riverdale resident
No evidence of the usual mass-proliferation of NDP signs in the first week of the campaign here. However I can't say that this means any hope for the no-name Liberal candidate. Presumably the NDP are concentrating on Trinity-Spadina, Beaches-East York and most specifically Parkdale-High Park in Toronto. In T-D, I would predict that Jack will increase his 7,000+ majority from last time.
08 09 12 binriso
Layton will win pretty easily, but I really think he shot himself in the foot not supporting May being in the debates originially. Id have to think Layton needs to win more than 30 seats in order to stay on as leader, since Im thinking Mulcair specifically and some others are looking hard at the leadership, plus its Laytons third campaign too.
08 09 06 W
It's Jack Layton's riding. Every elected representative for this riding (school board, city councilor, mayor, MPP, MP) is NDP.
08 09 04 PY
This election could well be a make-or-break one for Layton. Thomas Mulcair's probably chomping at the bit for his job. There's still no truce between the NDP and Greens, with the latter rising slowly but surely. Layton's lost the services of Alexa McDonough and Penny Priddy, as well as having had two prospective candidates (one in Quebec and the other in the Ottawa Valley, if memory serves me right) quit due to constructive differences over what was to be expected of them, which is really telling. And he's hardly been associated as one who's really taken Harper to task for the Tories' in-and-out electoral scheme or the newly revived Cadman affair.
Now, granted the chances of Andrew Lang pulling an upset are unlikely, but this will not be a cakewalk for Layton. I'm thinking a win by at least 4000.
08 08 31 King of Kensington
Funny to hear all this talk about NDP numbers dropping...the latest Nanos and Angus-Reid polls have the NDP at over 20% in Ontario. But elections take on lives of their own, so we'll see what happens in the upcoming federal election. Either way, Jack Layton will take this in a landslide against the low-profile son of a former Liberal Cabinet minister.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
With NDP numbers dropping across the country, it's worth speculating on what kind of Liberal candidate could take this from Jack. There was some noise during the early phase of the Liberal leadership candidate that Louise Arbour might seek that leadership. Run someone of that stature and Jack's toast. Toronto-Danforth is full of people who vote based on global and green issues, and many of them are refugees from the parts of the world where Arbour has made her mark. But Arbour being from Quebec she'd be more likely to try to revive the Liberal fortunes there.
07 11 26 Daniel
If there was ever any doubt that Layton would win this, it should now be gone: Deborah Coyne has announced that she will step down as Liberal candidate for this riding, citing financial problems. One wonders how a Liberal candidate in the heart of the Liberals' Toronto fortress would have difficulty acquiring funds...
07 11 15 binriso
Obviously Layton wins here, but there are safer NDP seats in Ontario clearly (Angus, Christopherson, Masse, Comartin). A poll by the Strategic Council puts the Liberals 47, CPC 29 and NDP at 12 percent in Ontario. If those numbers actually held at the election, this seat would be TCTC or even a Liberal advantage since they have a strong candidate, but they almost certainly won’t hold up. Layton may inch up slightly but if he does pass 50% it wont be by much. CPC win a moral victory by getting above 10% here which they didn’t last time.
07 10 26 PY
Layton has propped up the Tories in his own curious way by endorsing the last budget as well as the law-and-order proposals that are again being put forth in the House. D Paul, do you notice that Layton has not stood once and decried the Tories' electoral in-and-out scheme? Now that's both strange and sickening, IMO. Don't get me wrong; Layton will still win, but with a smaller margin if people process what he's really done.
07 10 16 D Paul
Layton will hold this seat easily. He is the party leader, and has a high national profile.
As to propping up the CPC, what are you on? The BQ was the party propping up the Conservatives through the whole first session of Parliament.
07 05 19 PY
Layton vs. Coyne, round two. She didn't do as bad as I thought for her first time out, that is she didn't get blown out completely. So unlike some of the comments made in last year's campaign, people did have an idea of who she was.
Rick Mercer had a great rant in January questioning Layton's leadership that's since snowballed. First it was the surprisingly damaging Jennifer Bernier mess with the letter-that-wasn't which was even published by NOW Magazine. Secondly, there was MP Pat Martin and his ‘informal coalition’ (with the Liberals) comments. Third, if I'm not mistaken, Margaret Atwood has since endorsed the Greens. And finally, horror of horrors, NOW Magazine has begun to sour on Layton as he continues to prop up the Tories; read their editorial in the May 17 edition to see.
Coyne and the Liberals could certainly use all the momentum they can get based on the above events, but otherwise I can see Layton's margin shrinking in the next election already. This will be one race to watch.
07 04 21 Ryan N
Without any doubt, 100% NDP win. The voters will definitely re-elect a very popular, incumbent party leader. Safest NDP seat in metro-TO.
07 04 10 A.S.
Be careful about putting too much weight upon Jack!'s '04 win; after all, it was only clinched after heroic party-central effort (and arguably sabotaging Mrs. Jack! in T-S in the process) once it became clear that Dennis Mills was no mere pushover. And remember, too: Jack! only added 2 points in '06 and still couldn't hit the 50% threshold, while Deb Coyne's no-hope effort was still good for over a third of the vote. So there's opposition hope (maybe more long- than short-term) between the lines. (Interestingly, Al Hart bested Jim Harris's total here in '04 *and* next door in '06, cracking 7% for the best Green vote in Toronto.) Why Coyne, with her ovarian provenance, is wasting herself against Jack! again is beyond me--she wouldn't seem nearly as hapless were she replacing a washup like Maria Minna instead...
07 04 09 Brian Appel
In particular, in Toronto-Danforth, there's the chance that, with the Conservative numbers rising, it could pull back Layton's support to allow Coyne to win the seat back for the Grits. However, this is a leader's seat, so a major advantage has to be handed to him. Plus, this isn't a competitive seat for all 3 parties. The Conservatives will be lucky to manage 12% here, which means that most of the votes will go to Layton and let him keep his seat. However, if, somehow, the Conservatives get popular enough in Ontario that they can manage 20% or more here, then there's a chance Layton may go down. For now, though, the NDP will be losing a bunch of seats in the next election, but Layton's won't be one of them.
07 04 07 Nick J Boragina
Layton's riding will be the only one within city limits to stay with the NDP. He won the last two elections, and in 2004 his party did not do all that well. With the polls showing a possible repeat of 2004, it's reasonable to assume that, like then, Layton will win now.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Of the three NDP ridings in Toronto, I think this one is pretty safe. Jack Layton has a high enough profile he should hold this never mind there aren't many high end apartments like there are in Beaches-East York and Trinity-Spadina, so this should help.
07 03 30 Rey D.R.
Layton vs. Coyne Rnd. 2.
Won't even be close, Layton will likely win by an even great margin than last time, as his campaign seems to become more entrenched in the riding than does Coyne's. Layton by at least 10,000, maybe more.
Greens aren't likely to get more than a handful of votes here, and they are likely to steal as many away from the Liberals as the NDP. Be lucky to get more than 4,000 and beat out the CPC.
07 03 28 Full
This seems pretty cut and dry. Layton is largely popular in the riding, Liberals are unlikely to nominate a particularly serious candidate, and the Tories never nominate a serious candidate in this riding (at least, not as long as I've lived here).
07 03 25 King of Kensington
Layton will easily be re-elected, this is one of the safest NDP seats in the country. The Liberals are running Deborah Coyne again who has no real connection to the riding.
07 03 24 P Ash
Jack Layton will surely hang onto this. While the NDP has suffered in the polls nationally from the Greens, the Greens don't have enough support, and Jack is widely popular, especially with the large Chinese community.
07 03 23 G. Kennedy (not that one)
I am sorry but Layton is not going to lose his own seat. While Kennedy will likely beat Nash and Ianno could very well trump Chow, it'll take some miracle combo of amazing candidate (anyone?), Liberal sweep (very unlikely) and NDP collapse (decline, absolutely, but collapse?) to unseat him.
07 03 21 Red Robin
Even as I predict a Liberal majority, a clean sweep across most of the GTA, and the collapse of the NDP vote, I just don't see the voters of Toronto-Danforth un-electing a party leader. I'm pretty sure his wife will get the boot next door, but for now Greektown stays Orange.
07 03 20 L. Nino
If the Liberals choose well here, they can unseat Jack Layton. The rise in the Green vote makes him vulnerable. Unless Layton makes some kind of deal with the Greens, a smart Liberal nomination could flush him back into municipal or provincial politics.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster