Prediction Changed
3:32 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Timmins-James Bay
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Angus, Charlie
Greenberg, Bill
Taillefer, Paul
Verner, Larry

Charlie Angus

2006 Result:
Charlie Angus **
Robert Riopelle
Ken Graham
Sahaja Freed

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 09 27 NJam101
I still stand by what I said nine months ago. If Angus gets over 50% of the vote then it will be a lifetime lock. I still think he will win but I am surprised to see so many Liberal Paul Taillefer lawn signs in Timmins which I like. It seems that my riding always has at least a 30% base that votes Liberal no matter what. Here is my prediction: Angus 53%, Taillefer 34%, Greenberg 12%, Green Party candidate 1%.
08 09 22 Marshall Howard Bader
Charlie Angus is a local and national political hero. I have talked to many people in the riding and even my Liberal friends are voting for Angus. Paul Taillefer is a respectable candidate who should really be running for the NDP in his home town of Sudbury. While Paul Taillefer may hold the Liberal vote here above the 20% mark it what will otherwise be the Dion disaster, he will lose be a very substantial margin. As far as teachers go most of the ones I have talked to are backing the NDP.
08 09 21 RR Shaw
Angus is a friendly, articulate, and passionate candidate that greatly appeals to the Northern Ontario democraphic, where elections are a bit less about ideas and a bit more about subconscious class warfare.
In addition to his skills, likeability, and popularity, two things helped Angus last time: a) the local Liberal campaign assumed they'd take back the riding by focusing on Timmins alone, and b) Riopelle was a weak candidate. Add to this that theslow but noticeable shift of north-eastern Ontario's francophone community towards the NDP over the last 10 years, and that combined to a massive Angus victory, regardless of whether people find his french quaint or embarrassing.
Taillerfer is a very strong candidate. The fact that the local Liberals were able to recruit him after the trouncing they received in the last election, not to mention the Green Shift platform, is impressive. However, Taillefer would do much better in the provincial Timmins-Baie James riding, which includes the francophone communities on Highway 11 (Kap, Hearst, etc.)
But even if Taillefer carries Timmins, the federal riding is more anglophone in nature, and includes the Timiskaming district, Kirkland Lake, Englehart (largely English) or francophone towns like Earlton where Angus has been able to build quite a following. Add in Angus' ability to essentially absorb the cranky rural Timiskaming conservative vote, and he's won again.
This will be a closer race than last time, but his popularity and the Green Shift will propel Angus to another victory. Could Taillefer he be setting himself up for a future run provincially, when Bisson retires within the next 10 years?
08 09 13 northbynorthwest
The Liberal candidate may do better than his predecessor but this is a landslide win for Angus and the NDP. At least landslide by NDP proportions in the north -- probably several thousand votes. In the riding, it is Angus first, and then the NDP in terms of popularity. He's got an impressive communications team and is popular with the national media. His native school campaign for the James Bay community has solidified his/NDP social justice reputation. And he is a maverick which also suits northerners. Angus with Tony Martin in the Sault have been pushing for a stronger regional development agency in FedNor and been traveling all around the north since 2006 - Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Kenora and Dryden -- in the hope they will have company in the NDP caucus after this election.
08 09 11 KRPS
I suspect Taillefer will do better than Riopelle, but it's tough to see Angus losing. He works his butt off, and anyone who has worked with him or had him do some MP work for them knows this, and usually admires him for it.
He's also an excellent communicator. This is Angus' riding hands down.
08 09 09 Mary J
It's going NDP all the way. Angus will win by a landslide. He's really popular and he can speak French- something the Francophone community is well aware of. Also, Stewart- height is a lame factor for determining election outcomes. Really.
The Conservative Candidate is not going to have an impact on the election. The Liberal candidate will put up a fight but have no chance of winning. Angus will take the riding by a larger margin than last time.
08 09 07 Stewart
Now that Timmins teacher and Union leader Paul Taillefer has entered the race as the candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada I think this race gets changed a fair bit.
Taillefer is a Timmins francophone, and not just any francophone, but he is one of the leaders and top spokespeople for the entire Franco-Ontarian community in Ontario. For example, he has been a regular on TFO's panorama. Angus, on the other hand, can't really speak French, and certainly is not fluent, especially in the Franco Ontarian dialect.
That is a big weakness in this riding where the dominant ethnic group is Franco Ontarians.
Taillefer is the President of the Franco Ontarian's Teacher local serving the Catholic schools in the area. As the past president of the entire union, Taillefer also has great working connections with the other teachers unions in the area, and has a natural affinity with the leaders of the other public sector unions in the area as well. That eats into alot of Angus's traditional base of support. Angus, to my knowledge, has never been elected to lead any union in the riding.
Moreover, Taillefer has been an active teacher in the largest high school in Timmins for more than 20 years. That is a lot of kids who grew up with a personal relationship with M. Taillefer, who are now getting a chance to vote for him. That is a great base of personal connections throughout the Timmins area, that reaches out to Cochrane and Iroquois Falls.
Angus is from the southern tip of the riding, and has spent a fair bit of his adult life outside of the riding. Simply put, Taillfer is quite well known and popular int he most populous parts of the riding. At 6 foot four, Taillefer also stands out in a crowd.
Certainly Angus has an impressive vote total from the last election. But these need to be put into the context of weak NDP numbers from Northern Ontario in current polls. Taillefer is a good speaker and a solid campaigner. So, I think that the Liberals in nabbing Taillefer as a candidate have put this riding back into the ones to watch category.
07 12 25 NJam~101
My home electoral district.
Provincially I gave a ‘Lifetime Lock’ prediction to NDP MPP Gilles Bisson as nobody will ever defeat him as the riding is his until he retires.
Now federally I am almost ready to give Charlie Angus a ‘Lifetime Lock.’ BUT,
he was first elected in 2004 and it has only been a few years up to now. I can't see anyone defeating him but for now I'm giving him a 10 year lock (elections within next 10 years). If he wins the next election with over 50% of the votes then I'll likely say Lifetime Lock. I vote Liberal but Angus is someone who is good as your MP whether you agree with him or not He is an author (Northern Ontario History) and activist. He respects all people and has interest in everyone. I personally like him much more than Gilles Bisson. I just can't see anything getting in his way for him to lose.
07 04 10 A.S.
Interestingly, the Kashechewan riding may have been the near-only '06 instance where the First Nations polls went monolithically to the NDP rather than the Liberals. The way things look now, unless the Grits offer someone extraordinary, Charlie Angus--along with Nathan Cullen out west, the caucus-star hinterland counterpoint to city slicker Jack--seems assured of holding on even if the NDP is reduced to Audrey McLaughlin levels of support.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Charlie Angus won by a large margin last time around and should win again even if the NDP loses its other Northern Ontario seat.
07 03 21 TB
Charlie is massively popular. The riding's northern aboriginal communities have really embraced him. The non-Timmins south is an absolute lock, and Timmins itself is very happy with him. If one riding deserves to be the first NDP prediction (with the exception of Layton's riding) it should be here. The Liberals will indeed take some serious runs at NDP seats, but I am guessing that in their heart of hearts, the will know not to break the bank here. Charlie in a walk.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster