Prediction Changed
3:33 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Austin, Katy
Ellis, Peter
Guergis, Helena
Matrosovs, Andrea
McKibbin, Caley
Christian Heritage
Vander Zaag, Peter

Hon. Helena Guergis

2006 Result:
Helena Guergis **
Elizabeth Kirley
Katy Austin
Peter Ellis
Peter Vander Zaag

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 13
Helena Guergis has really been a rising MP and Cabinet Minister. She will get re-elected due to her activeness in the riding, as well as the ‘Guergis’ name recognition (the Guergis family has a long history of politics in the Simcoe area). Also, the Liberals are running, Matrosovs, a candidate with little name recognition and experience in politics. Guergis won with almost 50% landslide in 2006; I cannot see her losing this one anytime soon.
07 05 27 A.S.
No longer facing Paul Bonwick, and no longer stigmatized as a city-slicker parachute (thus neutralizing the CHP counterstrike a notch), Guergis in '06 came a quarter point short of hitting the precious 50% post--looks like back to solid-federal-Tory business as usual for Simcoe-Grey, after a GTAish spell of flirting with Paul Martin being just Tory enough for the Blue Mountaineers and exurbanites and country-estate crowd. (Paradoxically, the Bonwick-less Liberals still managed better results in Collingwood than Bonwick himself managed vs Reform in '97!) And now, Guergis has governing-party and cabinet as a ribbon on the package. An alternate reflection of what's happened to traditional Simcoe Toryism: the Green vote went up past 5.5%--solid above-average for Ontario, and even it's lower than what the other Simcoe seats managed...
07 04 01
Minister Helena Guergis has been visible and hard working in this riding, not to mention in Ottawa where she fulfills her duty in her respective portfolio. 2004, she won by a 100 vote margin, but in 2006, this increased to about 11 000. Paint this riding deep blue.
07 03 24 RF
Helena has taken this riding twice. If this went CPC in 2004, and Helena is a cabinet minister, take this one to the bank for the Tories.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
Helena Guergis won by 10,000 votes and if the Tories fall behind, I cannot see them losing this one. Simcoe North is a mix of Liberal strongholds like Tiny, Penetanguishene in the North and more Conservative areas to the South like Severn, Ramara, Orillia, and Oro-Medonte. On the other hand, Simcoe-Grey is solidly conservative throughout the riding.
07 03 24 G. Kennedy (not that one)
Guergis won this by more than 11,000 votes last time and now she's a hard-working minister. And this is one of the safest Conservative ridings in the province. EASY hold.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster