Prediction Changed
11:17 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Prince Edward-Hastings
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Barnes, Paul
Cole, Ken
Coxwell, Alan
Kramp, Daryl
New Democratic
McMahon, Michael

Daryl Kramp

2006 Result:
Daryl Kramp **
Bob Vaughan
Michael McMahon
Joseph Sahadat
Tim Hickey

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 CM
If the sign wars are telling of the election result, the riding is definitely going blue this time. I was driving around the riding this weekend are there is significant Conservative dominance in signs - particularly on residential properties. Liberal is more visible in the Belleville area, but a large amount of the signage is rented billboard space or roadside public property. Although Green support is weak, their sign visibility is quite strong.
08 10 06 Bryan B
This is NOT a safe Tory seat - it used to be, but in the past 20 years the Tories have won it federally only in 2004 and 2006 and provincially only from 1995-1999. The north end of the riding is Kramp country but Belleville and Prince Edward County look awfully red. Ken Cole has run an aggressive campaign and the Liberals are up in the polls. Perfect riding for strategic Liberal votes because the NDP and the Greens don't stand a chance and never have. The Liberal candidate was unusually weak in 2006, so I say look for a close result like 2004, but with Cole winning this time by a few thousand votes.
08 10 06 Christopher
this is going to be close, probably another 2004 election result, alot closer than 2006... I'm from the county, and i'm hearing that Cole is picking up alot of unhappy conservatives, and concerned NDP voters.... so i wouldn't count Cole out just yet!!!!
08 09 09 Honest Bob
How the mighty have fallen! The poor old PEH Liberal Party Association, built firmly by Lyle VanClief, had over 100k tucked away in the bank back in 2004. Today, that grand sum has whittled down to a measley 25k (sources: Elections Canada), with the costly Bob Vaughan 2006 campaign and parachute 2008 campaign of Ken Cole.
Cole is a nice man, but his 8 yr son doesn't even attend school here in Belleville. He'll show the Grit flag, but Kramp has this already in the bag.
The essential question is, how bas a financial condition will the Liberal Association find itself on October 15?
08 04 28 Neal Ford
I expect that the incumbency factor will help keep this riding in Daryl Kramp's hands.
Liberal ken Cole is running a vigorous pre-campaign now, renting billboard signs in Belleville, and keeping in the local press, nevertheless, i still expect that it's not going to be enough. Could it be he's thinking about next time as a consolation prize?
07 04 12 A.S.
The dirty work having been done by snagging Lyle Vanclief's open seat in '04, Kramp found it quite easy to make Grit standard-bearer Dr. Robert Vaughan say U.N.C.L.E. in '06--though habits die hard, as near-campaign collapse couldn't prevent Belleville from staying largely true to the Liberals. (OTOH in the Bancroftian far north, the NDP actually finished ahead of the Grits!) Unless a giant asteroid hits Bancroft (and in the process, creating Gemboree rockhound specimens for future millennia) consider this one out of the non-CPC picture as it currently stands.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Had the 2000 boundaries been used, the Liberals would have had a realistic shot at re-taking this as the Liberals are strong in Belleville. But the northern parts added are staunchly Conservative (similiar to Cheryl Gallant's riding) and the massive Tory numbers here will ensure Daryl Kramp wins even if he does poorly in the southern parts. In 2004, he didn't win a single poll in Belleville yet still took the riding.

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