Prediction Changed
11:18 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Perth-Wellington
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Gary Schellenberger

2006 Result:
Gary Schellenberger **
22004
David Cunningham
12301
Keith Dinicol
8876
John Day Cowling
3117
Irma DeVries
1396

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 04 12 R.O.
66.186.79.8
This is a largely rural riding with some urban polls in Stratford. In the last election Gary Schellenberger won it easily doing best in the rural areas but not that bad in the rest. Although the Ontario liberals managed to hold onto this one last fall I’m willing to say it had more to with John Wilkinsons personal popularity here. The new federal liberal candidate Sandra Gardiner will have a harder time here then he did.
07 04 24 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Take note of this '06 sleeper stat: within Stratford proper, a united NDP/Green vote would have won by 3 points--and parts of the artsy core practically voted like The-Annex-On-Avon. But then, there's everything else. Basically, we're now talking about a SW Ontario answer to Sask seats like Blackstrap, where however urban goes, rural rules.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
From when Gary Schellenberger won a by-election here for the old federal PC's, it's been in cruise control for him ever since. Perth County voted Conservative overwhelmingly last time so I doubt there's any Liberal threat here.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Gary Schellenberger won back in 2003 when the two right wing parties were still split and has since won without much difficulty. While Stratford may be more left wing, the rest of the riding is solidly conservative.



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