Prediction Changed
1:29 PM 13/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ottawa-Orléans
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Royal Galipeau

2006 Result:
Royal Galipeau
25455
Marc Godbout **
24224
Mark Andrew Leahy
9354
Sarah Samplonius
2377
Alain Saint-Yves
578

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 04 27 Bob
99.241.76.197
This will swing back to the Liberals. I know many francophones in the riding and they view Galipeau as an eccentric embarrassment who ran for every office including town dog catcher before finally winning his dream job. I personally like the guy, but when you come out against moving government offices to Orleans in a suburb like Orleans where people spend hours in traffic everyday just to get to work, you can't expect to be re-elected.
08 02 23 rebel
99.246.104.177
There is no point in comparing provincial with federal results. The provincial election also coincided with an historically typical incumbant-advantage and very poor turnout that gave McNeeley a very strong victory.
Recent polls show a swing to the federal Conservatives in Ontario (though that can change with every week).
The riding demographics and incumbent advantage favour the Conservatives. With Afghanistan taking an important profile, the large number of military personel in the riding will also help the Conservatives. A preliminary guess would give the Conservatives a doubled majority to about 3,500 votes...
07 12 07 Ogryx
66.46.213.194
I think this riding will go back to the liberals, especially after reviewing the results of the provincial election, with incumbent Phil McNeely gaining over 50% of the vote. Last time around I think the liberals thought this riding would be a shoe-in and they will work at it harder this time. Royal Galipeau hasn't been an important MP and the fact that it's clearly known that he was a liberal for so long will play against him the next time around.
07 12 03 R.O.
209.91.149.214
Willing to say Conservative hold in Ottawa Orleans , why do I predict so ? well even though this area was liberal before so were a lot of ridings in this area. But realistically with current polls this would be an unlikely pick up for liberals. Last election Royal Galipeau pulled off a surprise victory here over liberal mp Marc Godbout. But now Galipeau has been mp for almost 2 years, well guess similar situation to what Godbout found himself in last election as he wasn’t expected to beat Walter Robinson. Anyways that is my prediction for time being.
07 06 14 A.S.
74.99.222.209
What Hamilton East-Stoney Creek was to the left, Ottawa-Orleans was to the right: after a high-profile bid by Canadian Taxpayers Federation bigwig Walter Robinson fell short in '04, CPC made a much more token effort in '06--and won anyway! (And only gaining 3/4 of a percentage point from last time, too.) Naturally, given history, it's a topmost Liberal takeback target. Unfortunately, it's also akin to those surprise-Adequiste seats on Montreal's suburban fringe, so that could be easier said than done...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
This was traditionally a safe Liberal seat, but like some other Eastern Ontario ridings, this has increasingly become competitive at both the provincial level and federal level. Also many civil servants have moved elsewhere in Ottawa so the loss of them has hurt the Liberals here and the increased gain amongst Francophones has also helped the Tories. Like last time, should be really close either way. One of the few Eastern Ontario ridings though the Liberals do have a decent shot at regaining.
07 04 02 free_thinker
137.122.73.209
Last time a conservative won re-election in this riding was like 1882. I think it is to close to call with Galipeau having the upper hand.



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