Prediction Changed
10:47 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Bilek, Michelle
Brown, M.A. Bonnie
Poland, Blake
Young, Terence

Bonnie Brown

2006 Result:
M. A. Bonnie Brown **
Terence Young
Tina Agrell
Laura Domsy

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 14 over the to[
While I did see a rally in front of Bonnie Brown's office Saturday...I simply don't see her hanging on here. It was so close in 06 and the votes on the left will split and deliver a conservative seat. I know many past liberals who simply have given up, the greens should make some gains as oakville is a very green community
08 10 13 david gates
I think, with respect, that Halton and Oakville are inverted. It seems clear to me that Oakville will go CPC under Terence Young while Halton will likely stay Liberal under Garth Turner. Won't effect the final total however, if I am right.
08 10 11 Stevo
Contrary to what Bear and Ape say, ‘Bay Street types’ are actually more likely to be Liberal supporters, not Conservative ones. Before the party fundraising rules were changed, the Liberal Party received the vast majority of its funding from Bay Street corporations, in contrast to the Tories who received most of their from private citizens. It may have been close last time, but the party standings in the polls right now look VERY similar to how they were in 2006. I see Bonnie Brown hanging on here.
08 10 11 Angry Ontarian
With Election Day in 3 days, I think it's time to call Oakville for the Conservative camp. Strategic Council is reporting a swing in support (polling Oct 7 - 9th) in South Central Ontario since the last election (the Tories up 1 point, the Libs down 11, the Greens up 7, the NDP up 3). With the 2006 results so tight, those numbers have a huge impact here. Plus, Greens are stronger than average here, even pulling 3rd place in last year's provincial elections. Greens also have a strong candidate with Dr. Blake Poland this time around.
Plus, The Oakville Beaver (the local newspaper) gave Terence Young a ringing endorsement, saying ‘Brown is content to spend much of her time in Ottawa and is rarely seen in the riding except for the occasional photo op and official function’. Ouch!
08 10 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Surprisingly quiet on this discussion board. Time to call it though and we say CPC. Too close last time, well known CPC challenger, and a riding filled with Bay Street types who are very pleased with Harper. Not going to be a landslide (due to Bonnie, not Dion) but none the less a Liberal loss.
08 09 23 Torontonian537
Bonnie Brown must be regretting her endorsement of Dion for Liberal leader. She might have held her seat with a stronger leader, but now she is almost certain to lose. She is one of several long-standing and personally popular Liberal incumbents who will be defeated solely because of the national campaign meltdown. While Brown will probably experience a smaller swing than the national average, her 1.25% edge cannot withstand the current 8-10% shift to CPC.
08 09 17 Harold
Well I like the too close to call. I've always correctly predicted the Oakville result. Presently, the weak campaign by the Federal Liberals will not help the respected Bonnie Brown.
It'll be interesting to see if the Federal Liberals can bounce back. If not there will be a few incumbents like Bonnie Brown losing.
08 09 11 david gates
CPC Pickup. However, the CPC candidate in Oakville is Terrance Young - not Lisa Raitt as erroneously stated by Paul Christie. She is running in Halton for the CPC. Terrance Young is the CPC candidate in Oakville. He has been door knocking since the last election which he almost won. Terrance Young was an excellent MPP for area from 1995-1999 at Queen's Park. Bonnie Brown was lucky to have a split conservative vote in 1993, 1997 and 2000 and although united, a still new conservative party, the CPC, in 2004. Although Ms. Brown has the advantage of incumbancy, national trends and Mr. Young's hard work should finally carry him over the top.
08 09 09 Jerry Mathers
While this riding will be one of the closest ones in the GTA, most of the affluent voters in Pleasantville (i.e., picket-fence Oakville) generally see through the rank opportunism of Harper. To wit, the broken promise on the fixed election dates, the laughably crass about-face on funding Ford (the biggest employer in Oakville) and the focus on the ridiculously low ‘Child Care allowance’ ($100/month = 2-3 days of day care in Oakville = not a child care program). As Oakville has a high proportion of liberal-minded commuters, I still think that Bonnie Brown will survive what might be Tory inroads in the GTA. Besides, many of us are more likely to vote Liberal to keep Harper in a minority situation and avoid the underlying social conservatism of his evangelical buddies. Prediction - Bonnie Brown by 1000 votes.
08 09 09 david gates
Tory pickup. Terrance Young almost beat Bonnie Brown in 2006. With due respect to Paul Christie, who posted here, it is Terrance Young who is the nominated CPC candidate again in 2008. The candidate mentioned by Mr. Christie is running in Halton as far as I know. Ms. Brown was lucky in 1993, 1997 and 2000 when conservatives were divided. She was lucky again in 2004 when the CPC was new. Mr. Young was an excellent MPP for the area in the Ontario legislature from 1995-1999. He has been door knocking since 2006. He will almost certainly win it this time. Ms. Brown should have retired while still undefeated.
08 09 02 Paul Christie
Wow! I understand that Lisa Raitt, the Harbourmaster for the Toronto Port Authority is interested and a possible candidate here. She is very tough and is likely the person that Toronto's Mayor David Miller has had the most difficulty dealing with. She would be a force in Oakville -- she's always had a fire in her belly. She would have a good campaign and lots of cash. Bonnie Who would definitely be fully occupied just to keep up.
08 08 29 Jon D
Think the Liberal's will, surprisingly, be able to hold Oakville. Bonnie Brown is beloved in Oakville, and Kevin Flynn's growing popularity is only reinforcing the Lib brand in the riding...the seat should hold.
08 05 07 Hannah Montana
Ford is still the most important business in Oakville. The provincial Liberal government has poured tens of millions of dollars into the Oakville plant and saved jobs. The Harper federal government has done nothing to help keep this Ford plant employing people. Oakville is also home to lot of the big money guys who work on Bay Street. With the economy cooling off, you can bet those guys weren't happy when Finance Minister Flaherty would go off on his many rants telling international business not to invest in Ontario. Young got as close as he'll ever get to beating Liberal MP Bonnie Brown in 2006. This time Young will drop back and Brown will have a much easier win.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
Doc Bear and Pro Ape can sit on the fence but all three of us agree that Oakville will still be a Liberal riding next time. In order to claim this riding will change hands, you have to make a case that the Conservatives have done something to win Oakville. None of us could think of a thing Stephen Harper has done to put this riding in their column.
Everyone who knows this riding, knows that Brown gets a lot of help from the provincial Liberals who poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the local Ford plant while the federal government did nothing. That investment buys a lot of good will in Oakville where Ford is still the most important employer. Political hacks like the three of us also have see the difference in the Liberal and Conservative campaigns in Oakville.
Brown has an energetic and large campaign team while Young had few people on the streets last time. Young can raise money and buy ads but he can't put a team in the streets to pull the vote. For all these reasons, Bonnie Brown will keep Oakville Liberal. We hear this is her last campaign so maybe the Conservatives will have a shot here after Brown is history.
08 03 12 R.O.
For the time being too close to call, but Bonnie Brown is a survivor as Oakville usually does not elect an opposition mp. Terrance Young came very close to actually winning this riding in 2006 election. But if he can come that close again, I’m unsure but its definitely a riding where the cpc is competitive. Looking back the liberals usually won this one by around 10,000 more votes than closest candidate even in 2004, but margin of victory shrunk to only around 800 votes last election. But it is still more of a Toronto area riding and more of an urban feel to it, so it will be an interesting one to watch.
08 03 12 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
As for our prediction, despite critisism on other discussion boards, we are not going to be goaded into making a premature prediction when the riding is clearly TCTC and an election hasn't been called yet. Despite this we share Stevo's embarrassment and have to concede that the ‘Quick Drawing Peg-Leg Slug that's Always Right’ has made excellent points, particularly with the environment issues and with Bonnie's popularity. Had Terence Young decided not to run again, we'd probably hedge out bets and say a Liberal keep, but the fact remains the CPC have Young as a candidate, he's popular and if (when there IS an election) the CPC surge, even a little, in the 905 they could take this riding. Until there is an election call, we say Liberal advantage but TCTC.
08 03 10 Peg Leg Pete
There are two big issues in the Oakville riding. One is gridlock on the QEW at the 403 that makes it impossible to get through this region. The second as pointed out earlier is the environment, meaning Oakville Green is a real player. Since the current Conservative government has declared war on the environment and ignores the serious transportation issues of the GTA, there's no reason to think a very popular Bonnie Brown is in any danger of losing her seat. Oakville stays Liberal no matter what Conservative hack like binriso and seesaw think. I predict Brown wins by 6500 votes this time.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
So glad Stevo sees things my way in Oakville. The Conservatives there can dream about knocking off Bonnie Brown but that's as close as they'll ever get. Bonnie Brown had a solid win last time with Paul Martin and the Liberals going down the drain. There is one other secret weapon Brown has and that's the Oakville Green people. This is a very active and powerful group of well off environmentalists who got Kevin Flynn elected and re-elected. The anti-environment policies of the Harper government will make sure Oakville Green flexes its political muscle and gets money and votes for Bonnie Brown. Oakville will remain red after this election.
08 01 28 Stevo
It is with some embarrassment that I express agreement with I'm Always Right. I feel that despite the close call in 2006, Oakville is just too close to the autopilot-Liberal ridings in Mississauga and Toronto - and that Liberal pull from the east is much greater in Oakville than the Conservative pull coming from Burlington to Oakville's west. Bonnie Brown will hang on unless Harper moves into majority territory, which he likely won't.
08 01 21 seasaw
Unless Mr Dion totally turns his leadership and his image around, Bonnie Brown can kiss her job good bye. Though not a bad member, she has not been as effective or as strong as other former MP's or MPP's ie Otto Jelinek, Gary Carr. She also made the bad error in judgement in supporting Dion for leadership and the more Dion fumbles, the more Bonnie's judgement is in question. CPC by about 3000-5000.
07 12 23 I'm Always Right
Every election Conservatives fill up this website with predictions that this is the election they finally beat Bonnie Brown. When the smoke clears, once again Brown will be re-elected. What the Conservatives don't understand is that Brown has one of the best political organizations in Ontario. She and Liberal MPP Kevin Flynn have been working together for years and between the two have a large campaign team that is well connected to everyone who matters in Oakville. Look for Brown to win by 1500 votes while the Conservatives wait for next time.
07 11 11 binriso
Another one of those seats that the CPC need to pick up to have a hope of a majority. But the NDP and Greens are so weak here that the Liberals could hold on, but it seems like it might be a small CPC win next time.
07 10 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're still saying it's TCTC, however that mini-budget thing they had today must have put a smile on the faces of many of the Bay Street types that live in this riding. Easily one that could swing to the Torys.
07 10 17 full name
CPC are up in Toronto, and tax cuts/crime agenda will do wonders to win over the $100,000+ crowd, of which Oakville is heavily populated. With less than 1,000 votes to make up and the CPC should be able to take this riding.
07 07 30 A.V.
The Tories are plummeting in the recent polls among the $100,000+ income set, traditionally the Liberals' strongest demographic in the Chretien/Martin era. They make up a very large proportion of this riding and even when many of them loaned their votes to the Tories in 2006, they didn't knock off Bonnie Brown. She might also get a slight boost from strong support she'll get from the Stephane Dion central party.
07 05 11 A.S.
My own feeling is, it would have been a close call for Bonnie Brown whether or not Terence Young ran; accounting for this having been Tory-blue bedrock through the Mulroney era, accounting for its still being fairly white and affluent, accounting for the results in neighbouring Lakeshore ridings (CPC victory in Burlington, within five points in Mississauga South). And one has to speak of Terence Young's popularity in qualified terms; sure, he was an ex-MPP turned bereaved-parent/consumer-advocate, but he *was* part of the Harris-era family values caucus, which might not be so good for those who want reassurance that CPC isn't just scary ol' ReformAlliance. Still, it's not surprising if he runs again, with a chance of winning this time; after all, Burlington's Mike Wallace was second-time lucky. Oh, and I said in my '06 entry that Bonnie Brown could have polled over 40% in a seat like this and still lose; at 43%, she came within a point or so of losing. So there.
07 05 04 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
What many seem to be forgetting is the popularity of the CPC candidate in 2006. This narrowed the Lib-CPC gap significantly. Is Young going to run again? If he is then it will be another close race. With poll numbers as they are now (libs the same, CPC down) Libs have an advantage, but definitly TCTC.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
Too early to say for sure as the 905 belt is quite volatile, however if the Conservatives make any gains in the 905 region, no matter how small, this will be the first to fall. Essentially the Liberals have to do as well or better in the 905 region if they wish to hold this whereas some of the other 905 ridings such as Vaughan or Markham-Unionville, they can drop a lot and still hold those.
07 04 07
Let's be careful not to mingle wishful thinking and personal knowledge of Mrs. Brown with the reality of the electoral results. In 2004, Mrs. Brown won by over 9000 votes. One would have called this safe for Mrs. Brown, until 2006, where her margin of win closed up very significantly and came out as 700 votes. Even if the Conservatives won another minority with one or two points up from last election, this would be a definite Conservative blue seat.
07 04 05 JC
I live in this riding and it's known that Mr. Young is absolutely disdained by Mr. Harper, apparently he thinks nothing of him and rather the tories are more interested in Missisauga South next door actually and have been pouring more money into that riding, rather then this one. The Liberal Riding Association has for the first time decided to ensure they have a volunteer team ready to go when the writ is dropped, this is not going to be a cake walk for Mr. Young. Whilst Bonnie Brown may be low-profile and may not be seen much she is a hard-worker behind the scenes and despite the fact she hasn't been seen much, I personally know her and she is extremely hard-working. Mr. Young is going to lose this one.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
Oakville was one of the closest ridings in 2006. With Harper Conservatives up in the 905, affluent WASP ridings like Oakville and Mississauga South should be among the first to change parties. It looks like Bonnie Brown, the low-profile incumbent will rematch against Terence Young, the former MPP. That means the national campaign will decide the winner here. If Harper keeps his GTA numbers up, Mr. Young will be heading to Ottawa.
07 03 29 St. Paul's Progressive
Right now I'll give a slight edge to the Tories since they came very close last time and are up in the polls (though a lot can happen between now and the election). While much of the 905 belt is very multicultural, affluent Oakville remains very WASP and is more open to the Conservative Party.
07 03 24 P Ash
The Libs will hang onto this for sure. The conservatives came close in 2006, but Bonnie Brown is popular in the riding...

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