08 02 14	R.O. 66.186.79.111
This one is too close to call, very competitive riding now that Belinda Stronach has announced she is not running again. New liberal candidate has been selected Tom Jones who will be running against Lois Brown previous conservative candidate. Wouldn’t say Belinda’s re-electon here was a surprise considering she knew so many people in this area and was so high profile at the time. But whenever the next vote here happens it will be much different than the last one. In the last provincial election neither party got nearly as many votes as federal election, Ontario liberals got thousands less votes than Belinda did and pc’s didn’t get as much as cpc did last federal vote. More or less an unpredictable riding that hasn’t been following province wide trends anymore by electing high profile candidates over the party with regional momentum.
	08 02 12	T,V, 209.202.78.177
There's a lot of wishful thinking here from Tories. Belinda Stronach barely won here, against someone who didn't live in the riding, despite as high name recognition as you could possibly have. As a Liberal, she won a much larger mandate despite a terrible year for the party nationally and an intense Tory campaign against her. This is obviously a Liberal riding, and there's pretty much no way the Tories will take it without a candidate as high-profile as Stronach. Klees might have been able to do it in a good year. I can't think of anyone else.
	07 12 03	seasaw 99.225.19.235
This one'll go Tory by a nose. When Belinda won the first time, she was a Tory, she took it by a bigger margin as a Liberal, now she's gone and this should be a very close race but with Harper as Tory leader and Dion as Liberal leader, the advantage goes to the Tories.
	07 11 07	Rebel 198.103.104.12
I think the longer Belinda is an absentee MP, the stronger will be the impetus to punish the Liberals (and her nominated successor) in this riding. The PC victory in the Ontario election is suggestive that this is a marginal riding...one on the ‘frontier’ between Liberal dominated Toronto/905 and Conservative dominated central Ontario and the Simcoes.
	07 10 27	Stevo 74.14.49.221
I'm skeptical about the Conservatives' ability to finally bring Newmarket ‘home’ (Belinda's win in 2004 as a Tory doesn't really count since the she only barely won based on her name recognition). Many of us expected Lois Brown to defeat Belinda in 2006 but she ended up losing by a pretty significant margin of 5,000 votes. Was this due to Brown's past affiliation with the Canadian Alliance? or is it just that Newmarket has slowly become a more sheepishly autopilot-Liberal riding like many others in the 905? The race here will certainly be close but it's hard to say if the Tories can win over those few thousand swing voter holdouts. Interesting to compare Newmarket to Oakville, a demographically very similar riding. I expect the two seats will likely go to the same party in the next election.
	07 10 15	The Outsider 99.230.121.239
If a local boy like Frank Klees could barely hold this riding by a thousand votes on October 10, it doesn't mean that this seat will immediately go to the CPC once Belinda retires. The Liberals should run whoever ran here in the provincial election to make this seat a horse race.
	07 07 24	binriso 156.34.233.81
Conservatives should have this now with Belinda's departure. Really can’t see the Liberals holding on.
	07 04 19	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.12.177.75
We're flip-flopping again. So CPC numbers are not as rosey and previously thought and they are not in majority territory in the polls. We feel that there CPC have a much better chance now that Belinda isn't running but it is not a sure-fire win for them unless their numbers rebound again. Way too close to call.
	07 04 13	24.81.18.126
With Belinda still in the race, she had a good chance of taking this one back. With her leaving politics, Lois Brown has a really good shot at this, and I am sure the CPC HQ will spend lots of resources trying to win this one (Brown is quite close to Harper, I think). She will also have the name recognition from last election. Still, it is too close to call. And how knows? The Liberals could drop a star candidate here. That would make it interesting.
	07 04 12	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
Hehehe...can I call it or what? Anyway, with Belinda gone, this centre-right riding is going to be swept up by the blue tide. Conservative gain, easy.
	07 04 12	Stevo 66.11.64.1
Okay, my first comment was made the day before Belinda announced her retirement from politics. Although this certainly opens up the race, I'm still cautiously predicting a very narrow Liberal win. Every adjacent riding save York-Simcoe went Liberal in a big way and it will take more than a minor shift to topple the Liberals here. One thing is for sure: the Liberal Party has got to be a little bit peeved that Belinda waited until now to announce her retirement. If they had run Martha Hall-Findlay here, the Libs would have undoubtedly retained it fairly easily. Instead, they've already wasted Hall-Findaly's talent in a safe 416 seat and will now be looking for a candidate who can't possibly match her high profile (is it possible for Willowdale to now ‘take back’ it's acclimation to allow her to run in Newmarket instead? has that ever been done?). Nod to the Liberals, but if the Tories surge in the 905, this seat could indeed fall.
	07 04 11	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
Brian Appel's question ‘what's up with Belinda these days?’ has been answered. With Belinda quitting politics this is an open seat. Given that it's exurban and WASP enough, I'll give the Tories the edge here. Maybe MHF should run here instead of Willowdale.
	07 04 11	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
With Belinda Stronach now retiring from politics, I would move this to too close to call. Considering how narrow her win was in 2004, this probably would have gone Liberal if Belinda Stronach weren't the candidate. By the same token this is one of the outerlying suburbs, predominately WASP, so in many ways not too dissimilar to Burlington, Halton, and Whitby-Oshawa, which went Conservative. I suspect a lot will depend on whether the Conservatives make gains in the 905 belt or fall.
	07 04 11	R.D. 12.4.238.25
Now that Stronach has announced she won't run again, I am changing my prediction from Liberal to TCTC.
	07 04 11	JC 142.55.117.15
Huge loss for the Liberals here, unless they find a strong cnadidate, the conservatives have this.
	07 04 11	Initial 216.208.193.167
With the retirement of Belinda Stronach from politics I expect that the Conservatives will mount a serious challenge to the Liberals in this urban area of the 905. This is an area which the Conservatives will be heavily focusing (i.e. in time and resources) on in the next election.
	07 04 11	G. Kennedy (not that one) 67.71.55.211
With Belinda not running, things open up. This is naturally a relatively conservative riding and while Belinda probably won it on her own terms in both '04 and '06, I'm sure it would have been close without her. In '06, in particular, with the Tories taking the government, I'm reasonably confident the Tories would have won. I think Stronach's decision has taken the Liberals aback and they'll now be scrambling for a candidate. If it's not a notable one, I'm betting this goes Tory.
	07 04 11	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 137.207.11.85
So Belinda is running back to Magna! The liberals can kiss this riding goodbye. Without her star-power the Tory's will take this with ease. It also helps that CPC numbers are still up in the 905 and the Liberals are down in Ontario. Nobody with any sense of objectivity can claim that this riding is not at least to close to call.
	07 04 11	Rob C 204.42.175.210
With the surprise announcement that Belinda is not running, it gives the CPC a fighting chance. It is my opinion Belinda originally won this riding because of name value and not because of her CPC identification. The Liberals will still be favoured to win the riding. Lois Brown will be the CPC candidate...again. This fact probably helps the Liberals too.
	07 04 11	Angry Ontarian 24.36.172.204
CTV News is reporting Belinda Stronach is NOT seeking re-election, and returning to Magna. If Martha Hall-Findlay decided to run in her own riding, could have been a Grit hold, but without them this affluent riding could turn Tory blue.
	07 04 11	Stevo 74.122.230.74
I think many - including this site's owner, based on the 2006 prediction for this riding - were surprised when Belinda not only held on to her seat, but did so quite easily. I haven't heard the rumours that Brian Appel refers to, but it wouldn't surprise me if Belinda is becoming utterly bored in Ottawa and wants to move on to other things. The fact that she isn't as visible anymore probably has to do simply with the fact that her party is no longer in power. After all, we don't hear much from Scott Brison either these days. I don't know much about Lois Brown's positions on most issues, but I suspect the ‘far-right’ label some are attributing to her has to do exclusively with her involvement with the former Reform and Alliance parties than with anything she has actually said or done. But there's no doubt that her Reform-affiliation hurts her and will probably continue to deny her this seat. Belinda or no Belinda, the stars just aren't yet aligned for a Conservative victory in Newmarket.
	07 04 08	Brian Appel 70.48.240.240
What's Belinda up to these days? We don't hear much about her anymore, and it's fueling rumours of her calling it quits before the next election. Anyway, this riding is being held by the star power of Belinda Stronach. If she runs again, I predict another Stronach hold. If she doesn't run, though, then the Conservatives are going to gobble this riding up quite easily.
	07 04 07	MichaelM 165.154.46.239
I don't agree with Dr Bear & Prof Ape on Newmarket-Aurora. No mater what the polls look. Belinda will win again. The Conservative Candidate is Lois Brown again and she is a hard far-right-wing Neoconservative. This is a 905 riding. Most people in this riding may make $95,000 a year. However this is a prograsive riding. And a strong hold for Belinda Stronach because she did a lot for Newmarket-Aurora.
	07 04 06	RF 69.157.12.239
Adding to what Bear and Ape have said about the riding, please keep in mind that Magna employs thousands of people in Newmarket-Aurora, and that recently, hundreds of jobs are to be cut. Rumour around town has it that Frank Stronach is buying Chrysler and relocating to Mexico. If this happens, Belinda will be in hot water.
	07 04 05	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.12.178.113
What we feel a lot of people are forgetting, despite Belinda's star-power and personal appeal, this riding is an affluent, far-from-Toronto 905 belt riding that have a very strong conservative element. The race here was closer in '06 than ridings like Oak Ridges-Markham, which is listed as TCTC, and keep in mind this riding has gone conservative in the past few years! Now the CPC is creeping up to majority levels in the polls and they are doing well in the 905. This is by no means a safe riding, probably their weakest in the northern 905, and the CPC still have an axe to grind with Belinda. They will be targeting this one and it could get ugly. Belinda may need the help of an enforcer...
	07 04 04	R.D. 12.4.238.25
Michael M. is right that Belinda Stronach's company, Magna, has dramatically improved its relationship with the big auto unions over the past few years. Some people have given Belinda credit for that from her stint as CEO, personally I think it was more to do with pressure from their largest customers, the unionized Big 3, to ?play nice.? Further, now that the tables have turned in the auto industry and Magna is actually looking to buy Chrysler for 4.6 billion, the CAW has been impressed enough with the turnaround that they've lent their support to Magna's bid. But what does this have to do with her chances of getting reelected? As Daniel points out, this is a fairly wealthy, suburban riding. I do believe that Magna actually does have a parts plant in the riding, but I am not sure how many people work there and of those how many actually live in the riding. It's certainly never been enough to make the NDP competitive. But they may be a good voting bloc for Belinda nonetheless, and I expect she also WILL get support from the CAW (Buzz encouraged her to run for the Liberal leadership last year). That being said, you have to ask whether she really even wants to run again, and maybe spend another few years in opposition if today's polls are to be believed, when she could be CEO of Magna-Chrysler?
	07 04 02	A.S. 74.99.222.209
Judging from the incoherence of MichaelM's last post, no wonder the NDP polling trend in Newmarket-Aurora has been 10% or worse, federally *and* provincially. But if the trend is anti-Liberal (and, if unlike last time, the Tory candidate isn't too ReformAlliancey), Bubba's Blonde (when she isn't Brunette) is definitely riding high on the hit list--maybe backhanded just desserts from newly safe-seated Martha Hall Findlay? Peter McKay's dog gone? Roll over play dead? Might Condi move to Canada and run against her for the Conservatives? All cheesy low humour aside, Belinda *isn't* a slam dunk, certainly not in this kind of borderline suburb/exurb/satellite riding, no matter who she is, or what her family position on labour is. But, she *did* advance from surprise-supermarginal as a Tory to surprisingly-just-marginal as a Grit; and now that her darkest days of political (if not personal) controversy are behind her, she seems rather benign, maybe too benign to inspire the same degree of opponents' ire. It almost doesn't matter if Belinda wins, loses, or even runs anymore...
	07 04 02	Daniel 156.34.85.213
I don't know why you guys are discussing the ‘union vote’ factor in a riding comprised mostly of affluent upper-middle class suburbs. Looking at the NDP numbers, it would appear that their vote comes from a rather hard-core group of supporters who wouldn't be caught dead voting for a Blue Liberal. If Stronach runs again, I give her the edge, but she's far from invincible (especially when you look at the increasing Tory numbers in the 905 region). Additionally, her profile has decreased dramatically since the 2006 election, and since the ‘floor-crossing’ effect has worn off, she won't have the ‘it’ factor that will get her coverage on national news broadcasts. Alas, all this analysis may be for naught, as word seems to be buzzing that she doesn't want to run again. If that's the case, I give the Conservatives the edge in this riding.
	07 03 30	MichaelM 165.154.46.191
Frank Stronach and Don Walker has terrible records on labour not Belinda Buzz Hargrove suppored Belinda Stronach in the 2006 Federal Election reasons: 1. win/win contract with the CAW in Windsor Ont. 2. 3 plants Unions under the UAW in the US (State of michigan) in the past Frank Stronach did voted No on the UAW and Don Walker did frow out union votes. However Belinda voted alow the union to go in the plants. 3. She did a great job in the riding. 4. Keep the Conservatives out. As for the 1st one that post hear that was not me posted that. He does not know what way the riding will go in the Ontario Election. And its not the NDP its self supported Belinda it was the NDP voters
	07 03 29	RF 74.120.155.163
To the person below, talking about how Belinda Stronach has the NDP onside: WHAT? Newmarket-Aurora is like all other 905 ridings - the NDP is lucky if they get above 7-8% support. Do you think their support matters? Not a bit. Plus, Belinda Stronach has a terrible record on labour - her father's company, Magna, is known for its conspicuous labour practises (no union, accusations of high turnover). No labour movement will coalesce around Stronach, that's for sure. Nonetheless, Belinda Stronach does well in this riding, and will likely continue to. There are still rumours out there that she is displeased with playing second fiddle to Martha Hall Findlay, and she may retire. If she does not, expect the Liberals to win by about 5-10%. My prediction is Lib 46%, CPC 41%.
	07 03 25	MichaelM 142.167.232.41
There is no way Belinda Stronach will be defeated in this riding. While the riding may go NDP provincially, I think a lot of her economic views are fairly Social Democratic and this will attract NDP votes to her. Harper is not well liked here, and Belinda who is seen as down to earth, and friendly will likely gain from the negative view of Harper. Belinda should pick up over 50% of the vote this time. If she doesn't, she will be close. With the NDP supporting Belinda, the Conservatives should finish 2nd. The Greens shouldn't be a factor here. I think you should put this one in the win column for Belinda now, as she is crusing back to Ottawa.