Prediction Changed
6:32 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Mississauga East-Cooksville
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Balasunderam, Satish
Bhagat, Melissa
Bhikha, Jaymini
Chénier, Pierre
Guarnieri, Albina

Hon. Albina Guarnieri

2006 Result:
Albina Guarnieri **
Carl DeFaria
Jim Gill
Richard Pietro
Mohamed Elrofaie
Sally Wong
Pierre Chénier

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 09 Adrena Lynn
This is another easy win for Albina Guarnieri. The Tories parachuted in a candidate from like Brampton or something, who was a former Liberal who was passed over from running their for Ruby Dhalla. Trust me, Melissa Bhagat is a lost cause!
08 01 21 seasaw
Albina's got this riding even if she goes blindfolded throughout the campaign. She was the only one in the 905 belt to win in '88, Bevilaqua won in Vaughan by only a couple of votes, which was later declared null and void and he won in '90 bi election. The possibility of a Harper sweep in Peel is quite high now but this one seat'll stay Liberal
07 04 22 A.S.
Albina G. isn't necessarily any safer than any other Mississauga Liberal for being a class of '88er--but maybe the best thing going for her now is the inner-belt seasoning of her turf. With condo/brownfield-infill exceptions, the dominant theme of ME-C is classic middle-class Mississauga Cold War suburbia, product of an age of station wagons rather than SUVs, megamalls rather than power centres. It's aging, diversifying, a little dogeared--maybe not on a Scarberia level, but it's likely slowly floating out of Tory gotcha territory with each passing year. Not completely out yet, but for all we know, we might come full circle to 1988 w/Guarnieri being the only Grit in Peel, simply because there aren't the million-dollar estates (as in Miss-Erindale, Miss S and up in Caledon) or mega-swaths of post-Cold War sprawl (as in MBS and the Brampton seats, hypothesizing--and only hypothesizing--that said sprawl might turn monolithically Harperite regardless of ethnic origin). It's the absolute Middle-est-sauga of them all...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Along with Mississauga-Brampton South, the Liberals should hold this one, even if the Tories have a 10 point lead in Ontario. Mississauga South is probably the most likely to fall of the Mississauga ridings, while Mississauga-Streetsville and Mississauga-Erindale are possible Tory wins, but not likely, whereas Mississauga-Brampton South and Mississauga East-Cooksville will stay Liberal.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
If Guarnieri could hold her own at over 50% in the disastrous 2006 election, she will surely be re-elected in the upcoming election. The question is, will she keep her majority? If the Liberals tank, then we say she takes the riding with about 40-45 % of the vote. A good run for the Liberals and she gets her 50 + %.

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