Prediction Changed
3:33 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Kingston and the Islands
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Abrams, Brian
New Democratic
Downes, Rick
Milliken, Peter
Walton, Eric

Hon. Peter Milliken

2006 Result:
Peter Milliken **
Lou Grimshaw
Rob Hutchison
Eric Walton
Karl Eric Walker
Don Rogers

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 James Z
Just got back from a run around downtown Kingston (between Queen's campus and St. Lawrence Campus). Anyway by looking around the majority of signs in the Queen's ‘Village’ are for the Green Party, with a couple Liberal signs here and there, and not a whole lot of NDP or Conservative. As you move away from the Queen's Campus there is an increase in Liberal Signs but there are still also a suprising number of Green Party signs. I also noticed an increase in NDP signs but not to a great extent. I didn't notice very many Conservative signs on public property anywhere. Let's not kid ourselves, this is the Liberals most safe seat in Eastern Ontario so they will win for sure. However I expect to see a big increase in support for Eric Walton of the Greens this time and for Miliken's numbers to decrease by a bit, but still win by a good margin. The NDP have a strong candidate, former city councillor and he ran for the MPP seat last year so his name is known, I would expect the NDP vote to go up a bit as well. Judging by the lack of signs for the Conservatives there I could see there votes go down. However this riding covers a bigger area rather then the core of Kingston and there are a lot of Conservative voters around so it is a tough call. Expect Miliken to win on Tuesday, and to see a big increase in Green support for the riding, possible to pick up a couple extra thousand votes to add onto the 5,000 he got last time. Modest increase for the NDP and a slight decrease in the Tory numbers.
08 10 01 Canadutch
Sorry Gareth, but I think you’re blowing wind. This election is a done deal and Peter Milliken is the dealer. True, Abrams may be a model red Tory and have a solid core of support, but he also has a 12,000+ plurality to make up to go to Ottawa as something other than a tourist. I would think that the strange fondness for Harper in this part of the province might filter into Kingston and the Islands from the fringes but this is 2008 and Mr. Abrams is no Flora. However, he will get some help from the Greens where Eric Walton may well double his vote count from the last time around. Much of this new found support will come from the NDP who have nominated Rick Downes, who in my opinion is not as strong a candidate as Rob Hutchinson was, particularly after his recent ridiculous pursuit of Harvey Rosen’s conflict of Interest non-event. So herewith my prediction: Milliken (albeit with a somewhat reduces plurality), Abrams in second some 8000 behind, Walton third with a respectable total and Downes bringing up the rear. We’ll know in 2 weeks.
08 09 30 Gareth
I am going to go out on a limb and predict Brian Abrams will win in Kingston and the Islands. It is clear that Milliken's support was always strong, but it is erroding quickly. This riding is seen as a Liberal one, but it is not. The history shows that in both provincial and federal politics the voters are dedicated to there candidate- and are so for a long time. With the exception of Gary Wilson, all elected members serve long terms in office. However, this riding also bucks the national or provincial trend from time to time, and decides they want a new face. Abrams is a red Tory with support in areas that no Conservative candidate has had since Flora. The sign war is clearly being won by Abrams- which doesn't mean much, EXCEPT the average voter wants to vote for the winning candidate, and the signs help shape their opinion. The Nanos poll gives my thoughts some credibility, and the apparent lack of interest on Milliken's part coupled with the disaster that Dion is, makes this prediction stronger. It will not be easy for Abrams but this will be a much closer race then most of us expected.
08 09 28 ToJo
I'll agree that early in the campaign Abrams and the Green Party were dominating the ?sign? war. However now that the Milliken campaign has gotten going Liberal Party signs dominate private property signs east of Gardiners. It's at least four to five to one margin over Abrams. The NDP have almost as many signs as Abrams.
Not that this is a real indication of much, but now that Milliken campaign has gotten going, even with the Liberal Party soft polling numbers its a very safe Liberal seat. Even when Flora MacDonald was the MP she was a very RED tory and has voted NDP since the takeover of the PC Party.
I expect that Milliken might lose a few votes, but he's consistently gotten 28,000 votes since 2000 and I dont expect that to change much. Expect a 10,000-vote Milliken win. No hope for the CPC or NDP until he retires...
08 09 20 Peter Edwards
Abrams dominating the sign war. Milliken camp in total dissaray from all looks of it. Now Milliken is taking a total beating in local media for saying he won't stay on if he's not speaker. Meanwhile Downes and Walton (NDP/Green respectively) have experience under their belt and seem to be eating away at Milliken's core in the downtown/north end. Couple that with Nanos numbers that put the Tories up 40-29 over the Liberals in Eastern Ontario (and yes, that does include Ottawa, so it's not just the rural seats), and this may be an actual race because of the disaster of a campaign Dion is running. Milliken is much stronger than the Liberal brand here, but if that changes (as it appears to be), then Abrams may have a shot in a Conservative rout of Eastern Ontario.
08 05 08 S Gibbon
Milliken's public statement that he will either not run at all, or run and not finish his next term, have drawn the ire of the public here in Kingston.
Certainly not an easy win for the Tories, but I think given the state of the Liberal Party, this could be inching towards Too Close To Call.
08 04 04 binriso
Milliken or not, the CPC have probably almost hit the ceiling in this riding or are close to it. The Greens also do surprisingly well and the NDP as well in recent years, but there?s no doubt that it stays Liberals unless the Tories get a superstar and the NDP get a good candidate as well to split from the Liberals, and the election is held outside the school year and Harper is at ~45% in Ontario and well ahead of the Liberals. Pretty unlikely.
08 03 15 Stevo
I can't understand the unwarranted optimism of the two ?Initials? below. Yes, Milliken's departure means that there will actually be a race here, but it's unreal to predict a Conservative win at this point. You'd think they'd at least wait to see who the Liberals nominate! Kinston is a very left-leaning town and Queen's University students make up a pretty good chunk of the population. Although Queen's is perhaps less lefty than other Ontario universities, don't count on campus Conservative clubs to make any sort of difference.
08 03 01 Initial
Peter Milliken has now publicly stated that he won't be around for too much longer, and given that we clearly won't have an election until the fall at the earliest, many here in Kingston are already talking about a new Liberal candidate. The Conservatives have been out door-knocking since early January and have an unusually strong candidate, Brian Abrams, who has the deep red tory roots in this community that won Flora Macdonald this seat many years ago. His sons form The Abrams Brothers band, who are quite famous in the area, and he has deep connections throughout the city. If the rumours are true and Milliken retires, look for Abrams to win with a strong campaign on the ground.
08 03 10 Initial
Peter Milliken has openly mused to the local papers about leaving, and given that we won't have an election until at least the fall, odds are better that this is the case. With no heir apparent, and his personal popularity driving a lot of his vote, Conservative Candidate Brian Abrams will give any new Liberal candidate a run for his money. This seat will go if Harper's numbers go up nationwide, not necessarily in majority numbers.
07 06 03 King of Kensington
Kind of a Canadian counterpart of Ithaca and Tompkins County in the Finger Lakes region, Kingston is a very liberal city in conservative Eastern Ontario. This rules out this riding for the Conservatives despite - or perhaps because of - its Red Tory past. If the former city of Kingston was larger it could be a seat like Halifax or Victoria - but because it isn't and its outskirts are more conservative or at least middle-of-the-road - it won't be going NDP anytime soon either. Even if Peter Milliken is personally popular, this is now a Liberal stronghold.
07 05 03 A.S.
For Milliken, '06's 46% counts as ‘severely depressed’. Above all, keep in mind that if the Liberal share *really* plummets (more likely in Milliken's absence), today's equivalent of the old Flora Red Tory element could more likely swing NDP/Green than Tory--Kingston's *that* kind of seat. (Keep that in mind, you poli-sci types who're so fond of pigeonholing the so-called conservative student body at Queens. This is Queens, not Bob Jones.)
07 03 29 M. Lunn
I would say this is a safe Liberal riding more because of the demographics rather than Miliken's popularity, although he is well liked. Unlike the two neighbouring ridings, this has a major university, a sizeable civil service, and not a large religious community like the neighbouring ridings do. In addition the adjacent parts in Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, the Liberals did quite well. The only got clobbered in that riding since the parts further North went over 60% Conservative and the Liberals were in the teens in those sections.
07 03 25 G. Kennedy
In the last election, every seat in southeastern Ontario went Tory except three in Ottawa's core and this one here in Kingston where Milliken easily maintained his 10000+ vote victory margin. That says quite something about the popularity of the Speaker of the House in his hometown. An easy seventh term is on the way.

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