Prediction Changed
6:04 PM 11/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Cameron, Tania
Holiday, JoJo
Rickford, Greg
Valley, Roger

Roger Valley

2006 Result:
Roger Valley **
Bill Brown
Susan Barclay
Dave Vasey

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 12 John
Surely still TCTC. I won't be in the riding once this election, but everything I hear convinces me this will be a squeaker - with Tania Cameron having an authentic shot. Roger is recognized as a stand-up guy, and he keeps his distance from the toxic Liberal brand. But Tania's a force to rival Roger.
08 10 09 northbynorthwest
Five days to go and still too close to call. And still a genuine, northern three-way race. That can benefit the NDP, known to do well in the 3-way races (they wanted 4-way races in Quebec to lower the threshold of victory but it is not happening there). NDP is also good at getting out their vote although that may be more of a challenge in such a large and remote communities riding. It's been interesting to see the NDP poll numbers hold in the province and country despite hammering from both Harper and Dion and also the strategic voting messages from Dion. With those numbers holding, NDP support is higher in Northern Ontario. If Cameron does win, then Northern Ontario will be very orange on election night, as many as 8 of 10 ridings.
08 10 06 Woodlaker
Expect Roger Valley to retain this seat. Although Greg Rickford and his out-of-town Tories have been hard at work in the city of Kenora, he has zero presence in other centres such as Dryden, Sioux Lookout and Red Lake. Don't expect the riding to go Conservative like rural Manitoba because many voters here equate the Harper government with the extreme right-wing government of Mike Harris. Also, almost half the voters are aboriginal, who have tended to support the Liberals in federal elections. The NDP candidate has failed to capture the support of First Nations and Liberal signs are appearing on the lawns of longtime NDP supporters.
08 09 30 R.O.
Find this a really hard riding to predict as its very large and made up of very different areas. As parts are very remote and others well connected to nearby cities of Winnipeg and thunder bay. And all 3 major parties came within 2000 votes of each other which does not happen to often. Each also has a significant base of support in the riding and could potentially win the riding. Only party without a base of support is the greens which is funny considering may actually visited the riding as part of her train tour. Harper and Layton also visited the riding as well and seemed to get a lot of press out of there visits. Making dion the only leader to not visit kenora but who would of though it would have become the must visit riding as its located so far from everything. The conservatives have targeted the riding by bring in ministers and such over past couple of years. Which shows the riding is not being ignored and results being delivered. The liberals only real advantage is fact mp is incumbent which may or may not prove to be important here.
08 09 27 NJam101
This one is hard for me to predict today. I would say Liberal but the NDP may have a shot. It is the ‘western’ Northern Ontario riding where there is a fair amount of conservative support for Northern Ontario. All I can really say is never underestimate the aboriginal vote here and where it might go which would be either Liberal or NDP. Polls here often don't show the real picture. Sure Harper visited Dryden but is it going to make that much of a difference? I don't think so. Lumber and mining towns never really vote conservative but how will those who aren't in those industries vote? That will be interesting to see. But really, if Valley could win last time, I don't see why he can't this time.
08 03 01
It is ridiculous to think that Kenora will vote for the Conservatives because Harper visited the ridding. Aboriginals and natives never voted in great numbers for the Conservatives not only in Kenora but also in all over Ontario and Canada.
Jack Layton will also be in Kenora this Wednesday and that does not mean the NDP is going to win the ridding. It is still too close to call in this 3-way race riding.
08 09 22 OldHack
Prime Minister is in the riding tonight - the national CPC campaign would not send him there unless they thought they had a good chance in this riding.
This is a small population riding, and the town he is visiting does not have a major media outlet, so there is minimal PR value to having him in town - other than to tip the balance in favor of the local candidate.
There has been a steady trail of Conservative Ministers in the riding in the past year - Prentice, Strahl, Clement - and a few others I can't recall. Now the PM. No one should be under any illusions about the fact that the Tories are targeting this riding as one of the gains to make up the majority.
08 09 22
Manitoba has great importance to the Kenora riding. Manitoba plays a more dominate role in the lives of people in this area than their own province does. Valley has worked had campaigning in the riding and has also worked hard in the province of Manitoba. He is often in Winnipeg working on issues that affect Manitobans and the riding of Kenora. I predict a Conservative win here by at least 2000 votes and for the riding of Kenora and surrounding area to re-join Manitoba by 2015.
08 09 19 Shotgun Willie
Races in Kenora are always close due to the small number of votes cast here compared to most ridings in Ontario. Roger Valley was able to win Kenora in 2006 with less than 10,000 votes. Look for the NDP vote totals to drop this election with Tania Cameron just not having enough time to get her name known in such a large riding. I was also surprised to see the vote totals for the Green Party in 2006. This will also reduce the NDP vote totals. The Conservatives have often come in second in Kenora but it's quite a jump to see them winning the seat. Look for Roger Valley who remains well known and personally popular in Kenora to win this seat again.
08 09 15 OldHack
The NDP vote will collapse to its core support, because Tania Cameron does not have the name recognition that Susan Barclay built up over numerous campaigns. Liberals have a leader that they can't sell and a major platform plank that no one wants to hear about when their personal and business interests are already hampered by high energy costs. In the last election, which was almost a squeaker, Roger Valley was on Paul Martin's coat tails, and waving the Kelowna Accord in front of the Chiefs: no such carrot this time. Mr. Rickford has a network in some of the most populous First Nations communities, so if he can get the vote out in those communities, the 1500 vote spread will shrink very quickly. The real question is where will those NDP votes go?
08 09 11 J.B.
TCTC. This is a very rural riding, and a 1500-vote difference in 2006 is still A LOT! Geographically, Kenora is far more connected with the Conservative west, as opposed to the rest of Ontario. The 2008 results will solely depend on vote splitting on the left.
08 09 11 Woodlaker
Expect an increase in Liberal plurality. Roger Valley has been endorsed by native leaders in a riding that is about 50 percent aboriginal. He will likely make gains in Dryden because he is the only candidate from that city (former mayor). The battleground will be in Kenora -- likely a split between the three main parties. The conservative candidate Greg Rickford is a parachute candidate who only recently has set up a place to live in Kenora. Despite his attempts to be mentioned in the media, he is not well known and is seen as an outsider. NDP candidate Tania Cameron may pick up a few more votes among the natives but she will lose more in the cities.
08 09 11 Greg
Kenora is trending increasingly towards the Conservatives. Harper, Clement, Prentice, Toews and others have visited the city in recent months with well-received funding announcements. The CPC candidate also has experience in First Nations communities, which should bleed votes away from Valley. The southern rural part of the riding, near Dryden, has always been a Conservative stronghold; that influence is now spreading towards the city of Kenora, the riding's most populous centre. Being in Opposition, Valley is seen as having little levrage to deliver dollars than help advance Northern industry. While the Tories high-profile visits have demonstrated the breadth of their operation in the riding and that it is on their list of winnable ridings. A narrow CPC win is predicted.
08 09 06 John in Winnipeg
Roger Valley is in trouble here. Low profile and only a 1500 vote difference. The tories have a great candidate. Tories by 3000.
08 09 06 Swift
The carbon tax is going to hit individuals in this type of riding hard. It is also going to hit the big three job providers(forestry, mining, and tourism.) The second big influence will be the blue tide that is sweeping east from Alberta. Kenora is influenced more by Manitoba than by the rest of Ontario, and the Conservatives are going to do better in Manitoba than they did in 2006. However its going to be a close three way race and a mistake by any of the parties, either nationally or locally could result in a different outcome.
08 03 20 R.O.
Was looking thru the political history of this riding, was surprised that it has only elected 1 mp other than liberals in recent elections. That being a one term ndp member back in 84 election, who later lost his seat when Robert Nault ran and got elected. But in the 2 most recent elections after Nault retired the riding has been very close. Whats surprising is what parties have been close in 04 ndp came within 1000 votes but fell to third in next election. In 06 conservatives came within 1500 votes, which for northern Ontario is considered to be a strong finish. That being said Susan Barclay and Bill Brown are not running again here, so both the ndp and conservatives will have new candidates those being Tania Cameron ndp and Greg Rickford conservative. i'd say too close to call for the time being.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
Roger Valley is untouchable in this riding. He's seen as a honest, hard working MP who does a good job representing this riding. In the north political parties have limited resources so they have to pick their battles. The NDP and Tories know they don't have a shot in Kenora and will use their money and manpower in other ridings where they think they have a better shot. I predict Valley wins by 3000 votes this time.
08 02 17 binriso
Let me be the first to lay a prediction on the line here (Its no fun otherwise).
Liberals win again, NDP goes down a few hundred, CPC up a couple hundred, Liberals about the same maybe down slightly, Greens up a couple hundred. Since the NDP couldnt win here either of the last two times, especially with the scandal, i dont think they will here, and theres Nickel Belt and both Thunder Bay ridings that are more easily winnable than this one for them.
Liberal incumbent running again im assuming? If so i would say they hold off the CPC by 800-1000 votes.
08 02 03 Chris McGarity
This riding might depend on when the election falls. If the summer holidays are in full swing, many left-leaning Winnipegers may have already voted in advanced polls, but may put up signs on their cottages, write in to newspapers, or even volunteer time or money to campaigns. Even though this may determine the outcome, it will still be a close 3 way race.
07 12 19 R.O.
What surprises me here is that ndp came in third here and this is Howard Hamptons riding provincially. But all 3 were very close must note . still unsure what affect the forestry sectors troubles will have here as southern part of riding has been hit hard. And as well riding also has many native communities in it as well which could have an impact. I expect a tight 3 way race here .
07 04 21 Ryan N
A surprisingly close 3-way race last time.
This is the Conservatives best bet to make inroads in northern Ontario. Seeing as they've pretty much shunned this entire region lately, Kenora is more likely to remain Liberal red, or possibly flop NDP orange.
It'll all come down to the individual candidates who are running, and how popular they are within the region.
07 04 07 A.S.
Building upon '04's strong second place (as well as its being the provincial leader's home riding), the NDP staked a lot of top-targetness on Kenora...but in a shocker, Susan Barclay lost ground and landed *third*; so now, it looks like the NDP's looking more closely at Thunder Bay, where they *did* make it a close third twice over (and the closest's now an open seat). Maybe a key to what happened is that in spite of Kashechewan, First Nations voters stuck hard to the Liberals; and, well, a little more ‘Provencher West’ urge came unbottled along the Trans-Canada corridor. Kelowna won't be an excuse to vote anti-CPC, either--after all, in the polls where that's an issue, the Tory tally is already virtually nil; the most that could happen is an even bigger turnout in the reserves. Hate to say it, but if the Tories came that close to establishing a cross-Manitoba-border beachhead last time, they could cinch it in the event of a honeymoon--remember: they laughed at the prospect of equally reserve-i-fied northernmost Saskatchewan going CPC...
07 04 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A true three-way race in Ontario's north! Northern Ontario has traditionally been a tug-o-war between the Liberals and the NDP. Until recently, it was a battle the Liberals won handily, but the NDP have made significant gains. Will Kenora be the next gain for them? Liberal numbers have slumped in Ontario, but this may be fleeting as an election is sometime off and they do have the incumbency advantage. CPC strength in near-by Manitoba has obviously rubbed off on Kenora, but the controversy over the Kelowna accords and the lack of any anything for First Nations in the budget may prompt these communities to come out and vote against the CPC. All in all it'll be an exciting race.
07 03 28 Angry Ontarian
Kenora is ‘TCTC’. Harper won this seat in the advanced polls both 2004/2006. If he wins Ontario this time, Kenora could easily turn blue.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster