Prediction Changed
1:29 PM 13/04/2007

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Kenora
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Roger Valley

2006 Result:
Roger Valley **
9937
Bill Brown
8434
Susan Barclay
8149
Dave Vasey
692

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 20 R.O.
209.91.149.36
Was looking thru the political history of this riding, was surprised that it has only elected 1 mp other than liberals in recent elections. That being a one term ndp member back in 84 election, who later lost his seat when Robert Nault ran and got elected. But in the 2 most recent elections after Nault retired the riding has been very close. Whats surprising is what parties have been close in 04 ndp came within 1000 votes but fell to third in next election. In 06 conservatives came within 1500 votes, which for northern Ontario is considered to be a strong finish. That being said Susan Barclay and Bill Brown are not running again here, so both the ndp and conservatives will have new candidates those being Tania Cameron ndp and Greg Rickford conservative. i'd say too close to call for the time being.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
99.234.197.75
Roger Valley is untouchable in this riding. He's seen as a honest, hard working MP who does a good job representing this riding. In the north political parties have limited resources so they have to pick their battles. The NDP and Tories know they don't have a shot in Kenora and will use their money and manpower in other ridings where they think they have a better shot. I predict Valley wins by 3000 votes this time.
08 02 17 binriso
156.34.209.176
Let me be the first to lay a prediction on the line here (Its no fun otherwise).
Liberals win again, NDP goes down a few hundred, CPC up a couple hundred, Liberals about the same maybe down slightly, Greens up a couple hundred. Since the NDP couldnt win here either of the last two times, especially with the scandal, i dont think they will here, and theres Nickel Belt and both Thunder Bay ridings that are more easily winnable than this one for them.
Liberal incumbent running again im assuming? If so i would say they hold off the CPC by 800-1000 votes.
08 02 03 Chris McGarity
207.47.221.126
This riding might depend on when the election falls. If the summer holidays are in full swing, many left-leaning Winnipegers may have already voted in advanced polls, but may put up signs on their cottages, write in to newspapers, or even volunteer time or money to campaigns. Even though this may determine the outcome, it will still be a close 3 way race.
07 12 19 R.O.
66.186.79.123
What surprises me here is that ndp came in third here and this is Howard Hamptons riding provincially. But all 3 were very close must note . still unsure what affect the forestry sectors troubles will have here as southern part of riding has been hit hard. And as well riding also has many native communities in it as well which could have an impact. I expect a tight 3 way race here .
07 04 21 Ryan N
216.211.53.149
A surprisingly close 3-way race last time.
This is the Conservatives best bet to make inroads in northern Ontario. Seeing as they've pretty much shunned this entire region lately, Kenora is more likely to remain Liberal red, or possibly flop NDP orange.
It'll all come down to the individual candidates who are running, and how popular they are within the region.
07 04 07 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Building upon '04's strong second place (as well as its being the provincial leader's home riding), the NDP staked a lot of top-targetness on Kenora...but in a shocker, Susan Barclay lost ground and landed *third*; so now, it looks like the NDP's looking more closely at Thunder Bay, where they *did* make it a close third twice over (and the closest's now an open seat). Maybe a key to what happened is that in spite of Kashechewan, First Nations voters stuck hard to the Liberals; and, well, a little more ‘Provencher West’ urge came unbottled along the Trans-Canada corridor. Kelowna won't be an excuse to vote anti-CPC, either--after all, in the polls where that's an issue, the Tory tally is already virtually nil; the most that could happen is an even bigger turnout in the reserves. Hate to say it, but if the Tories came that close to establishing a cross-Manitoba-border beachhead last time, they could cinch it in the event of a honeymoon--remember: they laughed at the prospect of equally reserve-i-fied northernmost Saskatchewan going CPC...
07 04 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
70.54.68.180
A true three-way race in Ontario's north! Northern Ontario has traditionally been a tug-o-war between the Liberals and the NDP. Until recently, it was a battle the Liberals won handily, but the NDP have made significant gains. Will Kenora be the next gain for them? Liberal numbers have slumped in Ontario, but this may be fleeting as an election is sometime off and they do have the incumbency advantage. CPC strength in near-by Manitoba has obviously rubbed off on Kenora, but the controversy over the Kelowna accords and the lack of any anything for First Nations in the budget may prompt these communities to come out and vote against the CPC. All in all it'll be an exciting race.



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