Prediction Changed
10:46 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cino, Sam
Di Ianni, Larry
Hart Dyke, David William
Progressive Canadian
Hill, Gord
New Democratic
Marston, Wayne
Rukavina, Frank

Wayne Marston

2006 Result:
Wayne Marston
Tony Valeri **
Frank Rukavina
Jo Pavlov
Bob Mann

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 King of Kensington
I agree with rebel - call this one for the NDP. The NDP won this in the provincial election and Hamilton has become quite the NDP stronghold. Layton has been running a very populist campaign tailored to working class ridings like this and Dion doesn't have a populist bone in his body. And there is no way the Libs can take this back given how much ground they've lost from '06 in Ontario.
08 10 02 rebel
Di Ianni being strong in Stoney Creek is no different than Valeri last time...but a lot has happened to the Liberals in the meantime. I think this is an NDP hold.
08 10 01 MJ
Copps endorses Di Ianni. It was in the Spec a few days ago.
08 10 01 StnyCrkGrl
Reb, it was in Monday's Spec. Sheila's endorsing Di Ianni.
08 10 01 seasaw
Regardless, this riding's going Liberal, no matter how bad the party does. Larry DiIanni is very popular here, the Liberals have a very solid local campaign, also the Liberals may be at low to mid 20's now in their support, however, come election day, a lot of NDP/Green votes, will go to the Liberals, this should be enough for a Liberal win.
08 09 30 REB
Sheila Copps endorsed DiIanni. I must have missed that one but pretty unlikely that she is sticking her nose into this race.
Close for sure, but lets consider that Tony Valeri was also very popular and with Liberal vote declining and NDP support increasing provincial and federally, the trend here says NDP hold. DiIanni has as many haters as lovers and his candidacy will bring out the haters who are motivated to vote against him.
08 09 30 Shotgun Willie
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek will more than likely be as close this time as it was in 2006. I believe the difference is going to be Larry DiIanni and his personal popularity in Stoney Creek. There are some ridings that are won strickly on the popularity of a local candidate and I think this is one of them.
Wayne Marsden is not without merit but lacks the charisma of DiIanni. So I believe this riding changes hands.
08 09 30 StnyCrkGrl
True, but at the same time you have to look at the strength of the candidates. Rukavina is just not as charismatic, persuasive, or politically intelligent as the other two. I think Di Ianni as the HUGE advantage of name recognition, as he's been in local stoney creek politics for over 20 yrs, and the fact that Sheila Copps endorsed him should mean alot of liberals that went NDP in the east end should hopefully mean they're coming back.
08 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Going to make a controversial decision and call this for the NDP. Liberals have a very strong candidate from the Stoney Creek part of the riding. In a better year this would have led them to victory (a weak victory but one none the less). Instead we have a situation where a stronger CPC is siphoning off the blue Liberal vote. Recall that back in the day the combined PC and CA vote would have toppled Valeri in Stoney Creek. Granted much of that riding is now in Niagara West-Glanbrook, but one has to wonder how a Liberal can win with half of the riding (Hamilton East) going staunchly NDP and the other half (where your support is) has a CPC undertone. We reserve the right to change this prediction at a moment's notice but for now we ahve to say NDP hold.
08 09 27 R.D.
This has been a close race with a very strong Liberal candidate. But the trend in this riding (2006 federal, 2007 provincial) has been towards the NDP and polling suggest the Liberals won't be picking up many seats this time around. Indeed its looking more like a wipeout. Tough luck DiIanni, this one will be an NDP hold.
08 09 25 Time to Pay the Piper
This race has turned into one of the dirtiest in the country as the Hamilton Spectator ran stories this week about the Libs and the NDP each claiming the other is stealing their signs. The police have been called in as usual in this riding. Larry Di Ianni despite getting crushed in the suburbs of Hamilton in the last mayor's race won his home area of Stoney Creek by a huge margain. He will get the same result this time as Stoney Creekers feel like their guy got the shaft from the suburbs in the mayor's race. Then there is the overall weakness of Wayne Marsden who is just not as dynamic as the other two NDP MPs in Hamilton and is mostly forgotten by the local media. The Libs will win this riding on the back of Larry Di Ianni.
08 09 24 Wild Bill
This is my home riding. Many pundits do not realize that this is a new riding of half of the old Hamilton East (the NDP half, for the most part?) and the Liberal portion of the former Stoney Creek/Niagara riding. This has given a split demographic. Scandals and Dion may hurt the Liberal candidate but as a former and popular mayor he is still a strong candidate.
Because of the split this riding is likely to give slim winnings to either the NDP or the Liberals for the next few generations! There is little chance of a strong win, meaning always a poor mandate and general ‘grumpiness’ among the voters.
08 09 20 Marco Ricci
One of the reasons the Liberal vote may have been down in the last 2 elections is because of the perceived way some voters felt Sheila Copps was treated. Some voters heard of the allegations that Tony Valeri's team was involved in vote-fixing the Liberal nomination in 2004 to eliminate Sheila Copps for Paul Martin.
Now that Tony Valeri is gone, the anti-Valeri vote may dissipate and some voters may return to the Liberals and give them a chance to reclaim the riding.
08 09 19 AJVHAM
DiIanni is a strong candidate and should not be underestimated. Marston's win was a fluke. A public service union is pouring their help here because they feel the riding slipping to DiIanni. Large margin for DiIanni. He has the Liberal machine and will probably fill the Liberal void left by Munro, Copps and Valeri.
08 09 19 Porter
‘Hamilton Spectator says the Liberals are not expected to win any Hamilton-area seats’
According to the Globe and Mail, last weekend The Hamilton Spectator asked: ‘Where have all the Liberals gone?’ The article was accompanied by pictures of former Liberal stalwarts John Munro and Sheila Copps and reminded readers that, not many elections ago, the party won all the Hamilton-area seats. Today, the Liberals hold none and are not expected to win any.
08 09 14 I'm Always Right
The Stoney Creek part of the riding is a sea of red Di Ianni signs as he demonstrates the strength in this part of the riding. Di Ianni has consistently won ever poll in Stoney Creek throughout his political career, including the last municipal election he lost. Voter turnout is always 10 to 15 per cent higher in Stoney Creek than it is in run down Hamilton East so having a big advantage there helps Di Ianni. You also need to look at Di Ianni's muncipal results in the Hamilton East part of the riding which he won easily in both mayoral elections. Despite what the NDP want to spin, Di Ianni lost the mayor's race in the suberbs of Ancaster, Dundas, Flamborough and Glanbrook. Larry owned the urban part of the city. Marsden has no profile in this riding as he has always taken a back seat to Christopherson and Charlton in the Steel City and with the NDP now running at only 14 per cent in the polls, Marsden is getting now help from Jack Layton even though Jack will be making a weekly appearance in Hamilton as usual. The only thing Wayne Marsden has going for him is the Hamilton Spectator that is re-running all their stories about Di Ianni's campaign financial problems from two years ago. The thing is those stories had no effect on the level of Di Ianni's support in Stoney Creek or Hamilton East two years ago so no matter what the NDP want to think, the story isn't going to have legs two years after the fact. Add it all up and Di Ianni makes a big political comeback by easily winning this riding for the Liberals.
08 09 13 La mome
I think, The Riding will go for Larry Di Ianni, because I think there will be a clear shift of Frank Rukavina Votes to Larry. Because as we know, Stephen Harper has told his Candidates that he knows will lose, to not spend any substantial amount of Money. It will be a 2 way fight in The East end but a clear smashing victory for Larry Di Ianni, Former Mayor and Stoney Creek Town Councilor in Stoney Creek. Larry will Win it by over 1,000 Votes. There is division in Wayne's Riding Association because of Spill over from Paul Miller's Bitterly contested Nomination. Paul Miller's Campaign Manager is not in The Riding and Helping Wayne. Todd White is The Campaign Manager for Gordon Guyatt in ADFW.
08 08 23 Al R
I think personally that the greenshift will seal Dion's fate in this riding.
Why? Because there are lots of people on fixed income (tax cuts don't help much to offset the carbon tax), and a lot of old homes that would need a lot of renovations to save money.
That and all the industries that people work at.
Also I believe the NDP will really play things up about being the ‘clean’ party and point to a long history of liberal connected scandals in this area (Tony Valerie, and Larry DiAnni need I say more?)
08 06 15 I'm Always Right
One of the reasons Tony Valeri lost this riding for the Liberals in 2006 was he no longer lived in the riding and local media attacked him for it.
Larry Di Ianni lives in Stoney Creek and always has. This takes away one of the big reasons why Wayne Marsten was able to get by with a very small victory. Di Ianni is very, very popular in Stoney Creek and will win every poll there big. In Hamilton East he'll do more than enough to stay close to Wayne and in the end win this riding for the Liberals.
08 04 12 R.O.
Sort of skeptical about the liberals chances here well mean not sure it’s a guaranteed pickup at this time. Not that di lanni is not a well known candidate but riding has been an area where ndp has done good in recent years. Mean they won it last provincial election as well and came very close to taking this riding in 04 election even when liberals won election. Also sort of unsure about odds of dion liberals being able to win a riding that mcguinty liberals could not win even when it was vacant and when they were leading in the polls and won other nearby ridings. Still some unknowns here as well one being the conservative candidate do not think they have one yet. well there not that likely to win here its still a big factor in overall race.
08 04 05 Curley Larry and Moe
There seems to be a lot of emotion among some of the Liberal and NDP pundits when it comes to Hamilton East - Stoney Creek. This is not surprising as it's well known how campaigns in this riding are brass knuckle affairs. The three of us simply look at the numbers and they point to the Liberals winning this riding thanks to Larry Di Ianni's history of pilling up very large numbers in Stoney Creek over a long municipal career and his level of support in the Hamilton East part of the riding in the last municipal campaign. Wayne Marston also suffers from the tradition problem facing the fourth party in the Parliament of Canada. He is unable to point to anything in his riding and say the federal government delivered because he was the MP. We also agree with others who point out that with more high profile NDP members in Hamilton like Christopherson and Charlton, Wayne has really struggled to get media coverage in the Hamilton market. Scan the local Spectator and you'll see Marston just isn't the NDP member the paper goes to for comment on the federal scene. For all these reasons, we just don't see the NDP holding this riding.
08 04 03 Doug The Slug
Let's not forget if it wasn't for the Hamilton Spectator running a full week of stories about Liberal Tony Valeri buying some land and then flipping it for a profit, Marston would never have won this seat. Even with this scandal Wayne only won by 500 votes. Di Ianni was elected to city council a number of times in Stoney Creek and won every poll there in two elections. This riding goes liberal in 2009.
08 04 03 Peg Leg Pete
Di Ianni won every poll in Stoney Creek huge against another Stoney Creek candidate, Fred Eisenberger. Fred was elected to city council from the east end. Let's also remember that then Hamilton East MPP Andrea Horwath was backing Fred and he still got slaughtered in Stoney Creek and Hamilton East as this part of the city voted heavily for Di Ianni. As far as the unions go in Hamilton, steel workers make way too much money to live in Hamilton East. Everyone in Hamilton knows the vast majority of the steel guys live in Hamilton Mountain and Upper Stoney Creek which is part of the Niagara West Glanbrook riding. That's what this riding is all about and that's why I stand by my prediction that Di Ianni wins by 2000 votes.
08 03 31 Mad Max
Wayne Marsden will overcome any Liberal Challenge. The Liberals are in denial they lost the seat to Marsden. There is no reason to believe they will get it back. The former Mayor is a tainted piece, and the poll by poll numbers of the Mayoratorial results don't include a working class/left wing candidate, or he would have done even worse. It was very clear that organized Labour, a necessity to have on your side in Steeltown was backing the former mayor because they weren't running one of their own. People plugged their noses and voted for him. I doubt voters in Stoney Creek are going to plug their noses and vote for a Mayor with a checkered past.
08 03 30 A Rathbone
But I am taking into account that. DiAnni won this area because he WASN'T Eisenberger, not because he's a strong candidate.
I also don't accept the conventional wisdom that the Green Party takes votes from the NDP only.
First, the Green Party didn't get votes significantly from only the NDP in every riding in the last byelections. Vancouver Quadra showed a Liberal to Green Leak, the Sask riding showed a static Green Party, Willowdale showed no real change in anything really, and Toronto Centre showed leaks from both Conservatives and NDP to Greens.
Second I do not believe the byelection results in the two Toronto ridings are truly indicative of how votes will turn out. The ridings were a forgone conclusion and I suspect only really dedicated voters turned up to vote.
I think that the Green Party, if it plays a role in a riding where the economy relies heavily on dirty manufacturing, will steal voters from all the other parties.
While i'm not 100% sure it'll hold, I have a feeling that DiAnni can't push aside the incumbent, especially if the Liberals don't gain significant ground from last election.
08 03 27 Doug The Slug
Rathbone totally ignores the facts mentioned by CL&M who correctly point out that Di Ianni won huge in Stoney Creek and Hamilton East. Eisenberger won the rural parts of Hamilton by running as a Conseratives which was a smart move because Ancasters, Glanbrook and Flamborough are very right wing. Di Ianni doesn't have to compete for votes in rural Hamilton this time. He just has to run in his strongest part of the city. Add to that the way the Green Party is draining support from the fading NDP and Wayne Marston is finished.
08 03 24 A Rathbone
The reason why DiAnni won was because his opponent (Fred Eisenberger) was a Conservative, and ran a quite frankly less than stellar campaign.
He also had big money behind him (His opponents for the most part rejected Union and Corporate donations while DiAnni didn't).
Unless Dion makes significant gains (read: forms at least a strong minority) DiAnni probably won't win this back.
08 03 22 Curley,Larry and Moe
The previous NDP poster clearly didn't look at the poll by poll results of the last municipal election in Hamilton. If they took the time to check, they'd see that Di Ianni lost the election in the rural, suburban sections of Hamilton. In fact, with the scandal front and centre in the campaign, Di Ianni won every poll in Stoney Creek by a large margin and to a lesser degree won most polls in Hamilton East. People in Stoney Creek like Di Ianni and fell like he got the shaft from the suburbs. Marsden is clearly number three when it comes to profile of NDP MPs in Hamilton for good reason and will meekly go down to defeat at the hands of Di Ianni.
08 03 19 A Rathbone
I'm sorry to break it to Liberal supporters but DiAnni is not a ?strong candidate?. Every other candidate will remind voters about his problems with electoral law.
The only reason he didn't loose spectacularly last election is his successor was less than spectacular and most voters stayed home rather than vote.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
If you want to know how strong a candidate the Liberals have in Larry Di Ianni, just look at the results of the 2006 municipal election in Steeltown. Di Ianni won every poll in Stoney Creek big time and although the spreads were smaller in the Hamilton East section of this riding, he won there too. Di Ianni has a great data base of identified voters who will support him in a federal election. The other reason this riding will return to the Liberals is the definite weakness of Wayne Marston. Wayne is just not a dynamic member. David Christoperson dominates NDP politics in Hamilton leaving a quite guy like Marston in the dust. All three of us agree that Di Ianni beats Marston with no trouble at all.
The Liberals won this riding when they nominated Di Ianni.
08 02 29 Doug The Slug
It helps that former Mayor Larry Di Ianni is running for the Liberals. He survived a bitter nomination battle that will end up being tougher than actually winning the seat. Marston is a run of the mill, do nothing NDP member who everyone once in a while slams the government but has no new ideas about solving anything. David Christopherson will be the only NDP MP left in Hamilton after Di Ianni crushes Marston and the Liberals take the Mountain too.
08 02 26 Peg Leg Pete
I grew up in Stoney Creek and still have friends and family there. They tell me that Larry Di Ianni is a lock to defeat Wayne Marston this time.
Di Ianni had his troubles as mayor but even when he went down to defeat, Larry won every poll in Stoney Creek big and also won most of the polls in Hamilton East. Di Ianni lost the election in the suburbs where he took a terrible beating. There is a strong feeling in Stoney Creek that Larry should have held on to the mayor's job and they want to make it up to him by making him an MP. The other advantage Di Ianni has is Wayne Marston is as boring as the day is long and is the case with most NDP members of parliament, has been unable to deliver anything to a riding that really needs help. Look for a surprisingly easy victory for Di Ianni. I predict he beats Marston by 2000 votes.
07 11 25 binriso
There’s no way anyone should think that Hamilton is the only area the Liberals will possibly gain next time. Lets see as far as new winnable seats for the Liberals, there’s 3 seats in Newfoundland, 1 in Nova Scotia, 6 or so in Quebec, several close ones last time in Ontario that could flip back to the Liberals, Winnipeg South in Manitoba and a couple in the Greater Vancouver area in BC. Specifically the ones around Montreal and the ones in Newfoundland will almost certainly fall to the Liberals, while this riding should be TCTC. This isnt even the first most logical pick up for the Liberals in Ontario, that would be Parkdale High Park, or now Mississauga-Streetsville. As was shown provincially, the NDP are quite strong in Hamilton and 2 of the MPs are from the provincial party originally. Its TCTC if not an NDP advantage.
07 11 02 John
With the NDP gaining this seat in the provincial election, there is no doubt that the incumbent NDP MP will be reelected with an increased margin. Hamilton is more and more NDP friendly.
07 07 31 A.S.
After a full-throttle 'hare' exploitation of the Copps schism in '04, the NDP in '06 offered a more laid-back 'tortoise' campaign under perrenial union stalwart Wayne Marston--and won virtually by standing still, with its share going up by less than an eighth of a percentage point! (Interestingly, the Dippers lost the most ground in their erstwhile heaviest ?Copps Country? Steeltown polls, as well as in advance polls. It's by gaining sufficient ground in places like Stoney Creek that they nabbed the seat.) Therefore, it may be safe to say that (with the qualified exception of Parkdale-High Park) this quasi-accidental gain might be the most vulnerable NDP seat in Ontario even if Larry DiIanni weren't running for the Liberals. What remains to be seen is whether the spectre of municipal corruption, together with lingering memories of federal corruption, upsets a DiIanni ?sure thing?--especially with the locals having acclimatized themselves to squeaky-clean federal NDP representation...
07 04 16 MM
The Grits made a step towards reclaiming the riding yesterday. Di Ianni is extremely popular in Stoney Creek and also did very well in East Hamilton in the last municipal election. The margin of victory will be determined by the strength of the national Lib campaign, but I predict a liberal win here regardless.
07 04 12 Ancastarian
Larry Di Ianni, until very recently the Mayor of Hamilton, is running for the Liberals here. He is enormously popular in Stoney Creek and has huge recognition. Voter turnout in pro Di Ianni Stoney Creek is also a lot larger than East Hamilton, where the NDP will be more popular. To be honest, while I do think it will be a good fight, I can't see Di Ianni losing this one. This has always been a strong Liberal seat. Marston simply rode Christopherson’s coattails, along with voter animosity towards the Liberals (due to their shabby treatment of Copps and the Sponsorship Scandal) to victory. This riding should not even be labelled as TCTC, as I see the former Mayor taking it handily, by 5000 votes at least. A rare pick-up for Dion’s beleaguered grits.
07 04 10 PJC
Actually the Liberals have not picked their candidate yet and it looks like a tough, maybe nasty internal battle again. There are two candidates -long standing liberal lawyer Ivan Luksic and former Mayor Larry DiIanni. DiIanni ran afoul of election finances law in his 2003 successful mayoral bid, taking illegal contributions and there was a three year stint in the courts. He was defeated in his 2006 re-election bid for Mayor by Fred Eisenberger, who had been the third place Conservative candidate in HESC federal 2004. Probably not a good idea for the Liberals to keep nominating candidates who have trouble with the law.
I suspect the Conservatives will eat into the Liberal vote and Wayne Marston, incumbent acclaimed for the NDP at a meeting packed with diverse communities, will win re-elecion. Solidly.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
The Hamilton areas went strongly NDP and should stay that way. On the other hand the Liberals won Stoney Creek and the NDP came in third there. The big question is since Stoney Creek is somewhat suburban as opposed to urban, will the Tories gain here and gain enough from the Liberals to allow the NDP to hold the riding even if they drop in the polls. At this point it is tough to say as suburban areas tend to be the most volatile as opposed to urban areas that are strongly Liberal/NDP and rural areas which are strongly Tory.
07 04 09 JC
Hold on now, Larry Di Ianni, the former mayor of Hamilton is running here and despite his problems you cannot count him out, he's probably even more well known than Marston is in his own riding, and I think Marston is in for one hell of a fight.
07 04 08 Brian Appel
Last I heard, Valeri was still being coy about whether he was going to run again, but if he does, then there's no reason that this riding won't go back to the Liberals, seeing as how the NDP vote is going down the drain in Ontario. Even if he doesn't, this riding has ‘Liberal regain’ written all over it. Something inside tells me that a riding with ‘Stoney Creek’ in the title can't possibly stay with a socialist for long.
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Okay, we're going to make our first controversial prediction now and say this will stay NDP. Here's what we figure: the Liberals are being weakened in the 905 by a strong pull from the CPC. This is going to be what we see in the Stoney Creek portion of the riding. The net effect will be Liberals losing votes and the CPC gaining votes overall. However the CPC will not gain enough votes to surpass the NDP, who have the Hamilton portion locked reasonably well. In the end, the real threat to the NDP (the Liberals) will be neutralized by a stronger CPC. Call us crazy, if you will, it's how we see it right now.

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