Prediction Changed
11:16 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bell, Michael
Devolin, Barry
Christian Heritage
Switzer, Dave
White, Marlene
New Democratic
Yardy, Stephen

Barry Devolin

2006 Result:
Barry Devolin **
Greg Walling
Anne MacDermid
Andy Harjula

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 23 University Student
To think the liberals will win in HKLB is completely ridiculous. I've actually heard a lot of positive things about the NDP candidate. Mr. Yardy may be the youngest candidate running in Canada at 18 years old, and many people are supportive of such a young candidate getting involved in politics. Its a breathe of fresh air in comparison with the Liberals candidate. However, HKLB is tory blue territory, and Devolin signs are everywhere on lawns. White and Yardy signs are few and far between. And yet to be seen are the CHP and Green candidates actively campaigning. Devolin will easily win HKLB!
08 09 23 Torontonian537
SJW, are you seriously predicting a Liberal victory in H-KL-B? For Devolin to lose, more than 90% of NDP and Green voters would have to switch to Liberal. Clearly, this is not going to happen. Devolin will top 50%.
08 09 18 SJW
Barry Devolin may be in for a tighter race than he planned on. The Liberals have a sharp candidate in Marlene White and the NDP have thrown in the towel by running such a young candidate. This is not good news for Devolin as the votes will not be as split on the left as they have been in the past.
08 09 18 University Student
Weighing in on the sign war...
Lindsay...Mostly Blue with some Red
Countryside...Almost all Blue
Prediction: Barry Devolin will easily win his seat back to the Parliament against the Liberal opponent Marlene White. If 2006 can be used as a guide, we may even see a 50+ percentage of the vote for Devolin.
PS: the NDP's candidate Mr. Yardy, has yet to place his signs throughout the community yet. I have only seen his signs at his campaign office, and one in the Mt.Pleasant area. Most signs regardless of party are located not on lawns, but in public areas, and sides of roads.
08 05 14 R.O.
This is a fairly large mostly rural riding that also has a large cottage country area. Conservative mp Barry Devolin first won it in 2004 by defeating liberal mp John OReilly and he easily held on to it last election. Its also conservative at the provincial level and held by popular mpp Laurie Scott who is the daughter of a former pc mp. Although Barry Devolin is not that high profile in Ottawa he is fairly well liked here and will be facing a new low profile liberal candidate. And as the riding has been mostly conservative over the years he should be ok here.
08 03 06 Doug The Slug
This is my favourite Reformer riding in Ontario. It's full of Angry Ontarians like the one who posted his prediction on this site. You'd have to travel west to rural Alberta to find a higher concentration of angry Reformers. Barry Devolin is the perfect representative for this riding and will cruise to victory again. Yawn.
07 04 30 flemingstudent
An easy win for the conservatives here again. The Liberals, NDP, and Green are scrambling to get candidates ready to take the Devolin Steamroller on, but Devolin's Conservative party has too strong of a grasp here. Expect another huge Conservative win.
07 04 29 A.S.
Let's face it; HKLB's an inherently anemic seat for the Liberals, while the NDP's been reaching into high teens, and the frontierish geography and demographics aren't too dissimilar to Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound--which means that with a Shane Jolley-calibre candidate, this could be a top Ontario prospect for a second-place Green result. But at best (barring miracle), this might lead to Devolin losing share, rather than losing, period. Heck, being ex-Reform probably already held him back from 50% in '06, and still some 10 pts or more back from the united right in '97 and '00. So, there's the seed of CPC softness there if you want to look for it--though actually acting on it might require another electoral stage or two, or else crossing one's fingers for an anti-Tory perfect storm...
07 04 09 Tory Blue
The Conservatives in a walk here. Look for a massive plurality, with Devolin capturing a minimum of 55% of the vote. The Libs are in disarray, with the previously committed candidate Walling, bailing out for ‘personal & business’ reasons. Local speculation is he was asked to withdraw, so Dion could run a female candidate in an unwinnable riding. This will help Dion fulfill his 33% committment. The Dippers haven’t found a ‘warm body’ yet either!
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Part of Central Ontario and the heart of the Conservative country in Ontario, so Barry Devolin should easily win again. Even when the right was split, both parties came close to take this one and when united, they've always won here, even in bad elections.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
CPC shouldn't have any difficulty winning Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. That’s the case for most rural Eastern Ontario seats. To lose here would mean a total 1993-style Conservative meltdown. Realistically that won't be happening.

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