Prediction Changed
11:16 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Barry Devolin

2006 Result:
Barry Devolin **
29427
Greg Walling
17266
Anne MacDermid
10340
Andy Harjula
3017

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 06 Doug The Slug
192.30.202.18
This is my favourite Reformer riding in Ontario. It's full of Angry Ontarians like the one who posted his prediction on this site. You'd have to travel west to rural Alberta to find a higher concentration of angry Reformers. Barry Devolin is the perfect representative for this riding and will cruise to victory again. Yawn.
07 04 30 flemingstudent
216.221.95.56
An easy win for the conservatives here again. The Liberals, NDP, and Green are scrambling to get candidates ready to take the Devolin Steamroller on, but Devolin's Conservative party has too strong of a grasp here. Expect another huge Conservative win.
07 04 29 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Let's face it; HKLB's an inherently anemic seat for the Liberals, while the NDP's been reaching into high teens, and the frontierish geography and demographics aren't too dissimilar to Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound--which means that with a Shane Jolley-calibre candidate, this could be a top Ontario prospect for a second-place Green result. But at best (barring miracle), this might lead to Devolin losing share, rather than losing, period. Heck, being ex-Reform probably already held him back from 50% in '06, and still some 10 pts or more back from the united right in '97 and '00. So, there's the seed of CPC softness there if you want to look for it--though actually acting on it might require another electoral stage or two, or else crossing one's fingers for an anti-Tory perfect storm...
07 04 09 Tory Blue
24.146.25.51
The Conservatives in a walk here. Look for a massive plurality, with Devolin capturing a minimum of 55% of the vote. The Libs are in disarray, with the previously committed candidate Walling, bailing out for ‘personal & business’ reasons. Local speculation is he was asked to withdraw, so Dion could run a female candidate in an unwinnable riding. This will help Dion fulfill his 33% committment. The Dippers haven’t found a ‘warm body’ yet either!
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Part of Central Ontario and the heart of the Conservative country in Ontario, so Barry Devolin should easily win again. Even when the right was split, both parties came close to take this one and when united, they've always won here, even in bad elections.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
CPC shouldn't have any difficulty winning Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. That’s the case for most rural Eastern Ontario seats. To lose here would mean a total 1993-style Conservative meltdown. Realistically that won't be happening.



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