Prediction Changed
11:14 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke North
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Barriffe, Nigel
Di Carlo, Anna
Duncan, Kirsty
New Democratic
Naqvi, Ali
Saroya, Bob

Roy Cullen

2006 Result:
Roy Cullen **
Amanjit Singh Khroad
Ali Naqvi
George Jan Havlovic
Alexander T. Bussmann
George Szebik
Anna Di Carlo

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 04 24 Doug The Slug
Once again RO can't imagine how the Liberals can win Etobicoke North now that Roy Cullen has stepped down. Let's look at the facts. The Liberals won this riding by a over 14,000 votes in 2006 even though their party was going down at the national level. It's now April 2008 and the Liberals are running at over 50% in Toronto and the Conservatives were very weak in the recent by-elections. Add to that the Liberals are running a high profile candidate who would certainly sit in a Dion cabinet and with the Liberals tied with the Conservatives nationally, that just could happen. So to make it very clear, Kristy Duncan will win this riding by more than Roy Cullen did last time.
08 03 27 R.O.
Well it might stay liberal but I doubt it will be that massive of a win. For a couple of reasons one the riding has a high immigrant population which has helped the liberals over the years only thing is dion has appointed a candidate Kristy Duncan who has no roots or connections to this community and she is not nearly as well known as Roy Cullen was. In the last provincial election look at the 3 main candidates as evidence that this riding likes to nominate candidates of an ethnic background Shafiq Qaadri liberal mpp , Mohamed Kassim pc and Mohamed Boudjenane ndp. Even the cpc ran a candidate of an ethnic background in 2006 so I?m really left scratching my head trying to figure out why dion though this appointment was a good idea.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
Etobicoke North is such a bedrock Liberal riding that do nothing Roy Cullen crushed the Conservative candidate by 14000 votes as the Martin government went down. Kirsty Duncan is a very accomplished person with a much higher profile than Old Roy ever had. Duncan will come in with one of the more impressive victories next time. I predict she wins by 16500 votes this time.
08 03 14 R.O.
There likely to be a few odd faces in this riding when they start to notice the Kirsty Duncan liberal signs instead of Roy Cullen ones. He retired and she became the liberal candidate so fast, even the most politically aware people had no clue what had happened, as there wasn?t even a nomination meeting. Guess dion is betting that they will not notice the difference or vote liberal anyways. The political history of this riding has been liberal other than 84 when it went pc and it has been liberal provincially since 2003. It will be interesting to see if Bob Saroya conservative or Ali Naqvi ndp candidates can made any inroads here now that long time mp is not running again.
08 02 22 Doug the Slug
Roy Cullen announced yesterday he's not running again. Looks like he and Dion couldn't agree on where the Grits should stand on Afghanistan. This doesn't mean the Grits are in trouble in Etobicoke North. They could run a dog and win this seat. It's going to be interesting to see who ends up with the nomination. There is a large South Asian community in this riding who will want the nomination for their candidate. Will Dion appoint someone? Stay tuned.
07 04 02 A.S.
While his 1996 byelection win might have been a relative close call vs Reform's Joe Peschisolido (and interestingly, *no* candidate of the Right, united or disunited, has done so well in Toronto since then), it's been banana-republic smooth sailing for Roy Cullen ever since and likely forever after. Though given what happened in neighbouring Bramalea-Gore-Malton in '06 vs '04, it might be of (admittedly unpleasant) psephological interest to speculate how the poll-by-polling might be were ‘Roy Cullen’ the name of the Conservative candidate and ‘Rupinder Nannar’ or ‘Amanjit Singh Khroad’ the name of the Liberal candidate...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Of the three Etobicoke ridings, this is the safest Liberal ridings. While the Liberals should hold all three Etobicoke ridings, this one they will pile up huge majorities in and there is a good chance the Tories won't win a single poll whereas in the other two the Tories should still get over 30%, while here they might not even get 20%.

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