Prediction Changed
09:07 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bachynsky, Richard
New Democratic
Natyshak, Taras
Watson, Jeff
Whelan, Susan

Jeff Watson

2006 Result:
Jeff Watson **
Susan Whelan
Taras Natyshak
James McVeity
Bob Cruise

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 IP Lookup
Befoer Curious to Know starts looking up others IP address, he/she might want to remember his/hers is displayed as well:
Finance Canada and Treasury Board Secretariat FCTBS-22 (NET-198-103-53-0-1) -
08 10 09 Curious to know.
Hm..... the NDP prediction coming from OECTA!?!?!?!? Hm..... interesting....
Ip Address is found in Canada
IP Address resolved to Hostname
08 10 06 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
An NDP prediction...looks like the kinda prediction we usually dig our claws and tear appart without any mercy. But ya know what, the NDP are far more visible this time, especially in towns like Essex. If CPC numbers continue to tumble and NDP numbers reamine bouyant it could be intertesting. Just not interesting yet...
08 10 03 Marshall Howard Bader
Two reasons for an NDP victory here. First a new poll shows that the NDP candidate in the riding is only 2% behaind Watson (the Liberal candidate is pretty much out of the race). Second my Liberal friends who are working in the riding are telling me the NDP is going to win. Also the Labour council has now endorsed the NDP which means resources are being poured into the riding (especially since both Masse and Comartin are safe).
08 09 22
Was in the riding last week and talked to lots of folk. My friends who are Liberal said Sue Whelan seems to lack energy and enthusiasm this time around. She appears to be going through the motions and this combined with the John Turner like performance by Dion is not good for the Liberal vote. The friends I have that are NDP are excited as is their candidate and they of course have Jack Layon and incumbents in the other 2 ridings. I think the NDP doesn't have enough support in the southeastern part of the riding (Leamington, Kingsville, Harrow). Watson will emerge here with a substantially reduced plurality.
08 09 07 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Now the race is on and as I see it the Liberals are too weak and the NDP are too strong, which spells a CPC victory. To win this the Liberals will have to erode both the CPC and the NDP vote, but I don't see them doing that at all. In a strange twist, it is possible that the NDP could take it (a huge collapse of the Liberal vote which is mostly absorbed by the strong NDP) but nothing like that is in the forecast. Much could happen in the weeks to follow and when my partner in crime returns home (this is Prof Ape's home riding) he may have a different prespective from on the ground. Till then I say it's a CPC hold and probably one held without much difficulty.
08 05 28 C B
I agree with Hannah Montana with the economic assessment of Essex, after which their submission becomes a load of malarky. I would like Hannah to cite the churches created in the recent ?Bible Belt Explosion? in the riding. This person clearly has a skewed view of the voters here. They obviously do not attend a church themselves. Any church I have ever attended has made a point of making sure that they did not openly endorse any party or candidate. Most churches will advise parishioners to vote their conscience and stand up for values they hold true in their lives but stop short of telling them how to vote. I am not saying that the majority of these people don't vote Conservative, I am sure many of them do, but they are human beings with their own minds and to say that they are mindless robots who vote how they are told to vote is demeaning and belittling. That is like saying that all union members vote NDP, which is clearly not the case. I agree with your call on how this riding will go Hannah Montana, but your reasons behind why need some work...
08 05 21 R.O.
This seat used to be a fairly safe bet for the liberals and considered a safe seat. But not in recent years at the federal level. Its been held by a conservative Jeff Watson since 04 election when he managed to pull off a surprise victory over longtime liberal mp Sue Whelan. She tried to retake the riding last election but was unable to. She is planning on running again from what I have seen but I think her only chance of becoming a mp/mpp for this area again is if Bruce Crozier retires and she gets the provincial liberal nomination other than that I don?t see how she could win this riding. Partly because the ndp are too popular in Windsor area and liberal opposition under dion has been ineffective
08 05 16 A.S.
If you want proof of how the Liberal brand's still anything but DOA in Essex, consider MPP Bruce Crozier.
08 05 07 Hannah Montana
In Essex agriculture is suffering badly from the high Canadian dollar and out of control gas prices. People in the west end of the riding who in the past drove to Windsor for high paying auto sector jobs now can't find work. What's happened is an explosion of bible belt churches in Essex as people turn to religion because they have nothing else. You'll also find a much higher than average number of hunters in this riding too. All of this makes Essex Stephen Harper country where bible belt voters are told on Sunday to vote Conservative. Jeff Watson is the ideal MP for this type of riding and will still be the MP here 26 years from now.
08 03 22 I'm Always Right
Where Stevo and I agree is that Jeff Watson is an embarrassment to the federal parliament but in Essex where hicks love the family values politics of Stephen Harper, it just doesn't matter how awful Watson is. He'll win this rural riding with out breaking a sweat.
08 03 19 Stevo
Peg Leg - aka I'm Always Right, aka Doug The Slug, aka Quick Draw - if, as you claim, this is a redneck riding and if, as you claim, rednecks always vote for right-wing parties, why were the Liberals in Essex able to beat the COMBINED Reform/PC vote in '93, '97', and 2000? Shouldn't these ?rednecks? have loved the even MORE right-wing/populist Reform and Canadian Alliance parties compared with their support for the more pragmatic Conservatives? When the Liberals became a Toronto party they completely lost touch with anyone - be they rural or small-town Canadians of all faiths, values, and ideologies - who doesn't live within 5km of a Starbucks. Which is why the Liberals will not be winning back Essex any time soon and in fact the only reason they kept it close in 2006 was due to Jeff Watson's weakness as a candidate.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
Oscar is right about the dirty business Conservative MP Jeff Watson was involved with. However, Oscar is dead wrong when he thinks anything Watson did or will do could have any effect on how the large majority of rednecks in Essex vote. In ridings like this vote the party not the local candidate. So Watson can do anything he wants between now and election day and still win this riding easily. In fact if I were the Conservatives, I wouldn't even bother to have Old Jeff campaign much. The less people see him in the riding, the better he'll do on election day. As before, I predict rednecks in Essex give Watson another victory. This time by 5000 votes.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
We've really enjoyed the back and forth between posters claiming Essex is full of redneck hicks and those who claim that's not true. All three of us have spent time in Essex and we have to side with those who see it as a hotbed of redneck rightwingers. As proof of this, we point to current MP and all round bad joke, Jeff Watson. Only a riding like this would elect a guy like Watson to begin with. The gang running the central campaign for Harper know this riding is firmly in Watson's hands and will not try to stir up any trouble by replacing him. Whether Sue Whelan runs again is of zero importance. Watson will slam dunk any Liberal who lines up against him. The NDP just don't matter in Essex.
This one is a Conservative hold
08 03 15 I'm Always Right
Sue Whelan, is going to be the Liberal candidate again. Why?
Because there isn't another Liberal willing to get carved up in the next election. The Liberal party hardly exists any more in rural ridings like this one. Yes, I know there is an small urban section of auto workers who vote NDP but that doesn't make any difference. Jeff Watson is certainly not one of the sharpest Conservative members but he'll be re-elected easily.
08 03 14 C B
Wow, I was going to respond as well to the ‘redneck’ entry several submissions down, however, I think Bear and Ape have more then aptly repudiated this persons comments. We seem to be on the same page on this one Prof and Doc and all I can say is ‘touche’! I will say that I am very interested to see who the Liberals nominate for the next election, if it is Whelan again (not sure) then it will be very interesting once more. If not Whelan or any other high profile or well recognized name, I would be inclined to believe that Watson will win again. For now, too close to call.
08 03 12 Peg Leg Pete
Sue Whelan didn't have any money or campaign in 2004 or 2006. Her percentage of the vote is simply the core level of support for the Liberal party in this riding. If you know anything about the federal Liberals in southwest Ontario it's they didn't have campaign armies or huge war chests when the won all those elections under Chretien. What they had was a core vote that was more than the split of right wing support among two parties. Yes there is an urban section of this riding where the always third place NDP pick up their support but it's not enough to ever let the social democrats be anything but also rans in Essex. As many other have pointed out, Jeff Watson is as disgrace but don't you think the Conservatives, with all their money are polling in a riding like Essex to see if Watson still sells? Clearly if Stephen Harper and company thought Watson threatened a key rural riding like this they'd dump him?
Watson is as bad as everyone says but in rural southwest Ontario, people vote for the right wing policies of the Conservatives, the local guy doesn't matter. I predict Watson is rewarded for his terrible behavior and wins by 6500 votes this time with Whelan a poor second and the NDP an even poorer third.
08 03 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We can say with some certainty that we know this riding. This is the home (and current) riding of Prof Ape and Dr Bear lived in neighbouring Windsor West for over 4 years. Although this makes us (or Prof Ape at least) a couple of inbred/inbread/inbreed rednecks (according to a certain abrasive poster, who shall remain nameless), we know that this riding has some unusual circumstances that result in an accurate prediction being little harder to make. First, although it is largely rural, about one third of the riding is Windsor suburban. This means the blanket statement that this is going CPC because it is nothing but redneck rural types is just plain false (and proves that some don’t really know this riding at all and are just full of hot air). Secondly, if Sue Whelan had no organization and no money in 2006, then how come she didn't do so much worse in 2006 than she did in 2004? In 2006 the wheels fell off the liberal campaign machine, yet Sue got 34.1% of the vote in '06 compared to 35% of the vote in '04. If things were going so badly for her, how did she get almost identical results? She obviously still has support and plenty of it to keep her competitive. Now for the NDP. Although they are highly unlikely to win, the proximity to Windsor and the effect of the omnipresent CAW helps buoy their numbers (24% and 23% in 2004 and 2006 is significant when the winner only got 37% and 39% in the same years). The ‘rednecks’ of this riding hardly consider the NDP communists as most are either part of or have an immediate family member who is part of the CAW. The union ties are very strong in these parts and the NDP has a powerful legacy in Windsor and environs. Under the right conditions, the NDP COULD win Essex in a London-Fanshawe type split, but we do not see that happening this time (they would need a very strong candidate and general animosity towards the CPC by the electorate). For now the strong NDP only takes from the Liberals in Essex, helping the CPC.
08 03 03 Oscar
Obviously critical thinking from our preposterous peg legged pundit and his clearly confused right hand man are not their forte. The McCarthy era tactics show just how desperate things are for the Cons in this riding. A realistic portrait of the political landscape in Essex would show that of a highly ineffective Member of Parliament who has been ostracized by his own party and local supporters. Self destructive diatribe, as well as lack luster constituency work has knocked Watson down to Bush league popularity. A legacy of high crimes and misdemeanours will dog the conservatives in this riding and Jeff Watson will certainly be the poster boy for unaccountability. After tampering with witnesses during his own criminal trial I would say that rock would be hard enough to crawl out from under not to mention the media distain for this less than inspiring neo-conservative. This is never the less a blue collar riding that doesn’t take to lies and broken promises very well (see Chuck Cadman bribery scandal, Mulroney/Shcriber, auto support, agriculture, health care, child care). An unbiased prediction of this area would predict Watson loosing at least 5000 votes, Whelan stagnant, or below 2006 levels and Natyshak to come up the middle with a photo finish win.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
It's seems like in every election there's a New Democrat on this site day dreaming about winning a rural riding like Huron-Bruce, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough and this time Essex. It's just hard for the NDP to see that outside of about 20 ridings in Ontario, they're just a fringe party who fight it out with the Greens for third place. The New Dems will finish third in Essex like they always do and like all southwestern Ontario ridings made up of small town, small ‘c’, the Conservatives will hold on. I predict Jeff Watson wins by 5000 votes this time.
08 02 28 I'm Always Right
TANK is out of his NDP mind picking his party to win Essex. The NDP are nothing more than an bad third place party in a rural riding like this. Essex rednecks think the NDP are communists. This riding is way to rural for anyone but the Conservatives to win even though Jeff Watson isn't much of a MP. Just doesn't matter. This is a Conservative hold.
08 02 27 TANK
Watson took another hit last night as the 2008 Federal budget will be largely criticized for ignoring the crisis in the manufacturing sector. With nothing more than table scraps for the industry as a whole, it will be even harder to imagine that having a Conservative represent this area makes sense to a largely middle class riding. With the Liberals in full support of this budget, and a weak Liberal leader, look to the NDP and Taras Natyshak to make significant gains in this next election. Having two respected and visible NDP MP’s that are largely expected to win in neighboring Windsor adds credibility to the Essex campaign and could complete the trifecta for the NDP in Essex. This is shaping up to be the biggest three way race in Canada.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
PY is quick to mention troubles in the Conservative camp but fails to note that the Liberal organization in Essex doesn't exist any more. Whelan had no volunteers and zero dollars for the last campaign and times have not improved on the Liberal front in this riding since. Whelan will be the Liberal candidate because they can't find anyone else willing to step up and take a beating in Essex. With rural Ontario firmly supporting Stephen Harper and his anti-urban policies, Essex stays with the Conservatives. This won't be close.
07 11 24 PY
I have relatives who live in the riding and remember the Whelans fondly. Still, the infighting in the CPC riding association there can't be dismissed so easily. Unless people want to get a hangover watching things unfold between Watson, those vying for the CPC candidacy and their members at large, cue the comeback of Susan Whelan.
07 06 05 A.S.
Jeff Watson's election here in '04 was a historic breakthrough, and the nature of the rural demo might indicate it was less a fluke than a ?why didn't we do this before?? situation--but still; aside from Watson's myriad party-infighting problems, this *is* Essex. And maybe that even explains the infighting, i.e. years of routinely abysmal results have left a Clampett-rickety machine for success-at-last to hang upon (cf. Bob Rae's provincial NDP). Thus, in theory, this could be the Ontario's most likely 3rd-place incumbent finish--if only because of the ever-looming strong electoral legacy of both Grits and NDP. At least, it seems more likely that Jeff Watson will land in 3rd than Susan Whelan...or, is it?
07 04 12 The Big One
I've been helping the conservatives since 2004 when Jeff was first elected and I can say that party infighting is just played out in the media. The conservative party membership is at an all time high in the region and we have all the campaign volunteers we need. Most of the people who want Jeff out are coming from the Tecumseh riding and carry no support at all. An easy conservative win.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Tough one to say. Jeff Watson is a controversial candidate and the infighting hasn't helped him. That being said Susan Whelan lost two elections in a row and despite how popular some say she is, if she couldn't win in 2004, I am not so sure how great her chances are now. This riding is also mostly suburban and rural so it is a bastion for leftism like Windsor is. Still the party infighting could mean a weak campaign and combined with a decline in NDP vote could be enough for the Liberals to squeak by.
07 03 31 Full Name
This riding is a real toss-up.
1) Controversial local MP. Whether it be the disturbing witness testimony in court against his former campaign worker, his break with the CPC over anti-scab legislation, his support for the reappointment of local Liberals to federal boards, his equating of Kyoto implementation to suicides, or support for the DRTP, Watson has been a colourful addition to the Windsor-area political scene. He has, however, delivered on budget money for the border unlike his provincial Liberal counterparts, and has scored real victories on the CASSE / Social Security for Canadians working in the states and on immigration files. The nomination date hasn't been set yet, but both Jeff Lappan and Craig Ball will be challenging Watson, showing all is not good among Windsor-area Tories.
2) Whelan Dynasty. Or is it? Susan Whelan has been acclaimed as the local Essex candidate, despite a middling track record. Victories in '93, '97, and '00 and defeats in '04 and '06. Her record in Parliament after 10 years was light, with no private members' bills dealing with community issues despite spending most of her time as a backbencher. She couldn't do much about the seat in '06, but '04 should have been hers.
3) NDP. The glory days of Steven Langdon holding this seat are long gone. Taras Natyshak is running once again, and for a political novice he ran a great campaign last time. David Tremblay was a strong contender, having served as mayor of Tilbury West, and to have Natyshak best that total is astounding. Unfortunately, the Layton NDP are different from the Broadbent NDP, with policies out of sync with the agricultural community. Witness their dramatic fall in Saskatchewan, but have proven popular in B.C. Those voters are now with Watson.
My gut feeling is that Whelan will retake the seat because of Watson's failings that will certainly be highlighted in the campaign. However, no matter who wins it'll be tight.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Watson has had some very bad press lately, having said some things that some would call outright foolish. This could seriously hurt him in a close race. Though it doesn't seem likely now that he'd lose his seat, there are many factors to consider. How will the Liberal campaign fare? Who is running for the Liberals? Will a strong NDP vote keep eroding away at the Liberal vote, or will the NDP vote collapse and boost the Liberals? Another riding to watch and see.
07 03 22 Nathanael Steven Hope
Im predicting a Conservative win, but I also think it all depends on who runs for the Liberals. If the Liberals run a strong candidate this could be another close race but if they run a weak candidate then the NDP could have a high voter turnout on election day.

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