08 03 29	R.O. 209.91.149.212
Not sure i would bet the next election on 2 low turnout by-elections which featured high profile liberal candidates. The race in don valley west will be different I suspect as the riding is not the same as other Toronto ridings its also very affluent and more of a traditional feel to this riding. Well John Godfrey managed to hold this riding as a liberal for a number of years it to me is one of the least liberal ridings in Toronto. Its been the home riding of a few big names like city councilor Jane Pitfield who ran for mayor last municipal election and had a pc mpp David Turnbull who was a cabinet minister back in the late 90s. but he did try a federal run here in 2004 and lost but that was a tough election and cpc was sort of new in Ontario and some voters not familiar with the party. It was also the riding of John Tory who I suspect if he had not introduced faith based funding idea would of easily won this seat in the last provincial election. But I admit its a little to early to say what will happen here. I'd give liberals a slim advantage but a strong local conservative campaign combined with dion?s troubles could make it interesting.
	08 03 18	binriso 156.34.209.176
The only half-decent barometer on how the CPC are doing in the GTA (better than opinion polls by far even though the by-elections had like 30% turnout) is the by-elections in Toronto Center and Willowdale and the CPC didn?t do well at all. Now I know, star candidates for the Liberals and all that but their vote % was about the same in Willowdale and way down in Toronto Center. There has also been a lot of talk I?ve heard about Stephane Dion is ?not a leader? and that Harper was going to beat him down to John Turner levels. Hed need to crack the 416 big time for that (like 5-10 seats) Doesn?t look like that?s going to happen. That cant look good at all for them in the 416 and yes, they?re not going to win any seats here in the next election, or in this by-election either. Another thing is that pretty much 80%(or more in many cases) of the electorate in any riding is pre-set in their vote and will never change it because of tradition, ideology or whatnot. This essentially gives every party a decent base and makes any major shift in seats nearly impossible, unless theres going to be a new Progressive Conservative or Reform Party to split the votes.
	08 03 17	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
Come on folks! Don Valley West is such a no brainer for the Liberals that timid Bear and Ape have even called this one an easy win for the Libs. There are a lot of Bay Street types who live in this riding and they get pretty hot when the hothead federal Minister of Finance tells the world not to invest any capital in Ontario. With the stock market all over the place these days, comments like that don't help anyone who works on Bay Street. The Liberals won this riding by 11,000 votes last time. If it ends up being a by-election then that number will be reduced simply because voter turnouts are always lower in that situation. So I'll predict if it's a by-election the Liberals win by 8500 votes and in a general election the Libs win by 13000 votes. The federal Conservatives will not win a seat in Toronto, as usual.
	08 03 14	R.O. 209.91.149.172
Well it helps the liberals that there is not going to be a parachute candidate in this riding, had looked like one of the defeated ones from the waterfront ridings was going to run here. But its still one of the closer Toronto ridings, the fact that John Tory was not able to win here during the Ontario election hurts the cpc?s chances. Although they still have a good candidate in John Carmichael. An odd thing that hurt Tory here was that the ndp ran so low and didn?t even try, so that could be a factor again. As for the new liberal candidate he seems ok but not as high profile as the mpp or previous mp of this riding. So one of the more interesting races in the sea of liberal red that is Toronto.
	08 03 13	24.81.18.126
I disagree with Binrisio. It is irresponsible of him/her to dismiss to CPC in Metro Toronto. Some of the outer seats are actually winnable by the Conservatives. If they win a majority government, I would not be surprised if they won 1 or 2 seats here, like how Anne Mclennan won her seat in Alberta during Liberal-majority days. I mean who thought the Tories would win in Quebec in 2006? I didn't.
	08 03 12	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.120.42
You're right about one thing in your prediction Ancastarian: your going to be receiving a lot of criticism (don't take it to heart, normally we find your predictions reasonable and well thought out). The Tory numbers may be ‘good’ in Ontario but they're not THAT GOOD...yet. The way we see it, they'll have to do a lot better, even in an open seat such as this, to pick up anything in Toronto. Under the assumption that the Torys finally make a connection with the major urban centers and under the assumption that this is still an open seat at that time and under the assumption that they still have a strong candidate, then maybe (and we'll concede that it would be a good maybe) will they take it. Tory numbers may be stronger in Toronto than the NDP numbers but the NDP vote in Toronto is much more efficient, concentrated in a few key ridings, whereas the Tory vote is diffused all over the place. So unless some significant changes in favor of the Torys occur, we'll keep seeing the usual array of ridiculous Tory predictions (there has been a rash of them lately) and come election day the Liberals will keep their stranglehold on Toronto.
	08 03 10	binriso 156.34.209.176
Theres no way the CPC are winning a Metro Toronto seat (of the ones listed on this site as Metro Toronto). End of Story.
	08 03 11	Ancastarian 72.38.158.55
Ok Ok...I know I will probably receive lot of criticism for this, but as long as the Tories continue to have good numbers in Ontario, I feel they will probably pick up one or two in Toronto. If they do, there is a good chance this will be one of them. The Tories consistently place higher than the NDP in Toronto, yet the NDP comes out with seats and they do not. As Conservative numbers pick up province-wide, the odds are they'll probably get a Toronto Seat. Additionally, the conservative Candidate, Carmichael, from what friends I have in the riding tell me, has a strong local base as well as strong roots in the area. Maybe its just enough to make it interesting!
	08 02 28	Joan Watz 99.230.168.90
Deborah Coyne has dropped out and is now supporting Rob Oliphant.
	08 02 25	T.V. 209.202.78.177
Wait... Too close to call? There's absolutely no way. 95% of the seats in the country are TCTC if an 11,000 vote margin is close. Godfrey didn't swing that many people. Coyne will likely win the nomination, and easily win the riding. She'll get good press, and she ran a very strong campaign against Layton last time, despite the lost cause. She'll make a strong MP.
	08 02 17	RP 198.103.172.9
I think Sam Bulte, Rob Oliphant and Mohammed Ijaz can all be strong enough candidates to hold the seat for the Liberals, as long as Liberal fortune remains where they are now in 416. Mark Warner decided not to seek the Liberal nomination in the end. (More like he realized that no one in the Liberal establishment was willing to help some guy that just wandered in two minutes ago winning a safe seat.) Bulte may have a small network in this particular riding, but she is an old political pro who knows how to organize a campaign. Her old team in Parkdale is easily transferable within the city. Many Parkdale Liberals have no interest in working for Gerrard Kennedy, and would be happy to drive the 15 minutes up to campaign for Bulte. Rob Oliphant’s United Church is a block away from the riding and a good chunk of the congregation lives in the riding. Being a United Church minister in the area means he would have contacts with many service agencies and community organization in the riding. Mohammed Ijaz probably has most political roots in the riding, as he is the only one who has campaigned for Liberal candidates in the riding in all three levels in the past few years. As a young immigrant professional he can hold on to the Liberal vote in the lower income area and be appealing to the wealthy WASPs. Carmichael’s best hope in this is to have Deborah Coyne winning the nomination. Coyne hardly had a team with her in Danforth and after leaving them in serious debt, the Danforth folks are probably unwilling to come up and help her. Her recent accusations against fellow liberals in the media show that she is neither a smart political operative nor a team player. Antagonizing two of your major competitions in a six-seven people field is hardly smart second-ballot strategy. With her readiness to whine to the media (and cart out her love child with Trudeau to score sensational points), the party establishment will see her as more of a liability than an asset, and thus unwilling to devote resources to her.
	08 02 17	R.O. 66.186.79.52
Some like me are wondering if this riding is now too close to call, since longtime liberal mp John Godfrey announced that he will not be seeking re-election. This has lead to a somewhat odd field of liberal candidates from other ridings to come to this riding looking for the liberal nomination. ( those being Deborah Coyle who already had a liberal nomination but decided to not run against Jack Layton in Toronto Danforth, Sarmite Bulte who lost her seat in Parkdale – Highpark and couldn’t run there since Gerard Kennedy is and Mark Warner who was cut as conservative candidate in Toronto Centre.) neither of those 3 have much roots to this riding and only view it as a safe liberal riding and 2 others are also running for nomination including Rob Oliphant. whoever wins nomination or gets it given to them by dion will have to face previous conservative candidate John Carmichael. Well I’m not predicting cpc to win anything in 416 yet, they are still competitive here and running some strong candidates.
	08 01 24	Don't Tase Me, Bro! 99.230.121.239
So I hear that Mark Warner and Sam Bulte are vying for the nomination now that John Godfrey has decided to step down. Seems like we've got a miniature version of Hillary vs Obama going on in DVW
	08 01 06	King of Kensington 70.52.185.226
Why is Dion as ‘Euro-style leftist’? Because he has a French passport? Despite the troubles facing the Liberals I still can't see any Tory pickups in the 416 area code. John Godfrey has expressed support for Mark Warner running in DVW. He would be a very good fit for this affluent riding. Unless the Tories have some star candidate(John Tory bolting for federal politics? Stephen Harper himself deciding to return to Leaside?) I can't see them taking this.
	07 12 23	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.52.63.142
What evidence is there of a Dion implosion? Wouldn't there be such evidence already if one was immanant? The thing with Dion's numbers is that they haven't really changed much despite the Tory's throwing everything at him. Sure Dion isn't winning any popularity contests, but the polls indicate he isn't crashing and burning. What the polls do tell is that the Liberals still dominate urban Canada, especially Toronto. With numbers like that, this riding isn't going anywhere but red. We believe you when you say that you have heard people say they fear a Euro-style leftists, but what you should really ask yourself is this: do the people I talk to think like me? Are they family, friends, neighbours, which all tend to be like minded? Very often the answer is ‘yes’ and this can give the false impression that the entire world shares the same opinion. This is not to be dismissive, this is something we should all keep in mind when we talk to people to get a ‘pulse’ on a riding.
	07 12 12	F Macdonald 69.159.188.85
Asif - Forest Hill is actually located in St. Paul's. Don Valley West contains similar neighbourhoods like Leaside, Lawrence Park and the Bridle Path, all hotbeds of Conservative support that were cautious of Harper in 2006 but now fully support him. John Carmichael has been nominated again, and with one difficult election's experience under his belt, will prove a formidable candidate. John Godfrey was essentially a North Toronto prototype candidate (much like John Tory, before the school issue lost him the seat). With him gone, this race is wide open. The reason I call it for the Cons is that I live in the area, talk to the people, and know that while they may not worship Harper, they truly do fear a Euro-style leftist like Dion. Carmichael has deep roots in the riding, was well-liked in the last election, and since he has the best shot of any Tories in Toronto, will be getting a huge amount of support from the top-level campaign people. Expect a close race with Carmichael pulling it out with Harper in majority numbers after a Dion implosion.
	07 12 02	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.121.65
We don't really think (at the moment) that this will go to the Conservatives, however we need to acknowledge that it will be a much closer race this time. Like Daniel said below, it is akin to Vancouver Quadra. Lets see who the Liberals and CPC can come up with, however based on similar ridings we would have to say Liberal hold.
	07 11 28	seasaw 99.225.19.235
If John Godfrey was running in this riding, the CPC would've had absolutely no chance, but he decided to retire. The CPC can take this one with a good candidate, coupled with a weak Liberal candidate. Dion's weak leadership, may attract either a weak Liberal candidate or a very strong one with leadership aspirations of his/her own. This is probably the only riding in Toronto, where CPC has an outside chance.
	Date 07	Daniel 156.34.74.171
Well, Godfrey has announced that he's resigning his seat to become headmaster of the Toronto French School. I'm not sure if that warrants a 'too close to call' designation here, but if Vancouver Quadra falls into that category, why not Don Valley West? I'm pretty sure the Liberals can win both of those races, but the absence of Godfrey certainly gives the Conservatives a lot more wiggle room here. Maybe this poses another chance for John Tory to get elected to something? ;)
	07 10 14	atif rashid khan 76.64.52.206
John Godfrey, is a political heavyweight within the Liberal Party of Canada. He has been a minister within previous liberal governments, and continuously has held onto this seat, even in tough times. Look at 2006, considered to be a collapse of the Liberal vote, he handily won this seat. Furthermore, Kathlyne Wynn'es victory in this riding in the provincial election should definitely help Godfrey increase his vote total. The large number of apartment buildings within this riding will outnumber the votes that come from Forest hill. Godfrey will definitely win this. !!!
	07 09 18	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
Even with an elected MPP and Premier John Tory and Jane Pitfield (even if she had become Mayor) campaigning for Harper in his childhood home to the entire news media, this riding would still be only borderline TCTC. Whatever it might do provincially or municipally, this is a Federal riding in a Federal election we are talking about, and Federally the CPC is very weak within Toronto city limits. While this riding may become a target for the CPC if they start to poll within Majority range, for now it’s just another Liberal lock.
	07 08 02	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 67.71.56.170
John Tory has only a 3600 vote margin to overcome from the last provincial election. The CPC has almost 11,000 votes to overcome. That is a heck-of-a-lot voters they need to sway! Not to mention the provincial conservatives are up in the provincial race while the federal conservatives are down relative to the last election (why can't people see this plain and simple fact?!?!?!). There is no way that a party that is down in the polls is going to take a riding that they lost by 11,000 votes when the incumbent is well established. We really don't think that the CPC are as nieve as some of the people posting to this site. The CPC will be not be wasting time and energy on DVW, Willowdale or St Paul's when some of their current ridings are vulnerable and other Liberal ridings in the 905 are winnable. Makes absolutly no sense at all!
	07 07 29	RF 74.120.153.167
John Tory has an impressive Tory infrastructure built up here, and look for the federal Tories to utilise this built up infrastructure to win this seat - perhaps their only seat in Toronto.
	07 05 27	King of Kensington 76.64.29.179
As others have pointed out, Don Valley West is among the most small-c conservative ridings in 416. However John Godfrey is very well established and respected as MP and isn't going anywhere. Still unlike St. Paul - which like the Upper East Side of Manhattan and West Los Angeles has become a fortress of affluent urban liberalism and now completely rejects small-c conservative parties - I can see this riding which is more nouveau-riche in character (my guess is that 2/3 Tory poll is in the Bridle Path area) going Tory under the right circumstances. However the Conservatives need to run a strong candidate and campaign. David Turnbull was a Harris Tory who only got elected provincially because of his party label; John Carmichael also has a low profile. I also expect John Tory to win here in the fall.
	07 04 12	A.S. 74.99.222.209
If it were an open seat, DVW be much more surface-clear as a toss-up--affluence, John Tory, Jane Pitfield, and Harper's Leaside childhood. Also keep in mind that this one-time ‘safest Tory seat in Toronto’ gave Godfrey a nearly 60% quotient in '04--higher than neighbouring DVE!--but he sunk down to 53% in '06, back below DVE, with the biggest net ground lost in the most affluent/middle-class zones. At this rate, there'd have to be a more decisive 416 swing t/w CPC for this to be truly and clearly in danger. Remember, too, that a lot of the old ‘safest Tory’ advantage has been lost or diminished through redistribution, now that both Throncliffe and Flemingdon are part of the picture--a reverse of how Eglinton-Lawrence suddenly became more Tory-friendly once it swallowed up North Toronto. For now, I'll still hand it to Godfrey--unfortunately for opponents, he shares a ‘holy Midtown Grit’ cast with Carolyn Bennett--but things could definitely be in flux...
	07 04 05	G. Kennedy (not that one) 128.100.178.163
Godfrey IS running again; he was introduced last night at a function for the Toronto candidates. Given his popularity, margin of victory from last time and the fact that this is in the Liberal bastion of Toronto, I'm confident he'll win. All that said, it must be conceded that, as St. Paul's Progressive has already pointed out, this is the most small-c conservative riding in Toronto (with the arguable exception of Etobicoke-Lakeshore). And I expect John Tory to win it in the fall. But even so, Toronto seems deadset against Stephen Harper so it would take a MASSIVE swing to swap this.
	07 04 03	St. Paul's Progressive 130.63.123.68
Along with Etobicoke Centre and Lakeshore, this is the most small-c conservative riding in the 416. It is among the wealthiest in Canada and compared to Toronto as a whole, is more WASP. The Don Valley West wards were the only two won by Jane Pitfield in the last mayoral election and John Tory's biggest win was in Ward 25. It is a good riding for Tory and I suspect it will go Conservative provincially. Federally however John Godfrey is a highly respected MP and Toronto has never warmed to the Tories and even if he retires I'll give an edge to the Liberals. I expect the Conservatives to get at best around 40% of the vote here.
	07 04 02	74.108.19.47
This is an easy win for the liberals. even if Godfrey does not run this is in the bag for the Liberals. This is too close to downtown and too ethnically diverse for the conservatives to win. Liberal Hold!
	07 03 30	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.12.178.56
Is Godfrey even going to run again? Recall his unspecified health concerns for dropping out of the leadership race. Well if he's in or not, the Liberals will keep it. We say a 10K+ lead if Godfrey's in and a 5K+ lead if Godfrey's out.
	07 03 30	Angry Ontarian 24.36.172.204
Don Valley West should be 'too close to call' for now. If I'm correct, John Godfrey isn't seeking re-election, citing health concerns. He was extremely popular here. And since the last election, Ontario PC leader John Tory has announced he will run in this riding. That means increased Tory organization exists locally. Now Harper has gained popularity in the 905, enough to take several more seats there. If that urban support bleeds into the 416, DVW could turn blue. But too early to tell.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
A very affluent riding so naturally would seem like a Tory target, but John Godfrey is well liked amongst his constituents and in addition it is really too urban to go Conservative. Even the rich here still frequently see the need for some government involvement in dealing with the less fortunate unlike say in the outer lying suburbs where the only time they spend in the city is during work hours. That being said, ironically the Conservatives did get over 2/3 of the popular vote in one poll, which was their best poll in Toronto, but on the whole this is still a Liberal riding.