Prediction Changed
3:33 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Carleton-Mississippi Mills
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Arbour, Paul
Cole, Jake
MacKinnon, Justin
O'Connor, Gordon

Hon. Gordon O'Connor

2006 Result:
Gordon O'Connor **
Isabel Metcalfe
Tasha Bridgen
Jake Cole
George Kolaczynski
Tracy Parsons

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 14 northbynorthewest
Orange County North. I laughed,. U like that characterization of this riding that has elected Gordon O'Connor and before him the Alliance's Scott Reid. If it's blue, it wins. So what if you are a hapless minister who can't even figure out how to jump on the porkbarrel express and get money for the riding. I hear some people are going to vote for him again this time because they feel bad for how he has been treated by Harper. So there you go- another vote for the Conservative party to show contempt for how the Conservative party treated their candidate. The interesting race here is for second place, and future victories. The Liberals' Justin MacKinnon is young, an unknown commodity. However, he is out of the gate strong with hundreds of red signs and full page local newspaper ads. The Greens have a veteran candidate, (Jake Cole), well respected, a former teacher, in May's shadow cabinet. Greens jumped past the NDP for third in the last provincial election.Depending on how badly things go for Dion nationally, and how May performs in the debates, Cole and the Greens could be the rallying point to either protest or oppose Harper and O'Connor. The NDP has Paul Arbour, a Nortel worker with a small business. He will benefit from a strong Layton campaign.
08 09 09 Matt
A warning to any who think Landowner assoc. members back only Conservative candidate, you are dead wrong. John Ogilvie of the Greens was supported by the Landowners in CMM in the last provincial election.
Look for the Greens in CMM, Nepean-Carleton, and Leeds-Grenville to make up some serious ground on their opponents. Likely to stay ahead of the NDP in all three of these ridings, and will likely average above 10%.
07 09 12 Nick J Boragina
Under the 2000 federal election, redistributed onto the current map, this riding would have been won by the Alliance. Clear indication that the CPC will retake it this time, even with O'Connor as the candidate.
07 08 17 Robert Jones
Despite the demotion from defence O'Connor should keep this seat. This riding goes heavily Conservative in every election. Conservative roots are deep here. This riding is home to many members of both the Ontario Landowners association and it's affiliate and more well known group the Lanark Landowners. A very safe conservative seat.
07 04 12 A.S.
If I'm not mistaken, if one combined all the A/B-type ‘split polls’, that would make Carleton-Mississippi Mills the only riding in Ontario where CPC won every single poll. Go by that measure...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Gordon O'Connor may be a liability to the CPC nationally, but this is a staunch conservative riding and as long as the right is united, it should go nothing but Conservative. Despite being more suburban than rural, it is sort of like Canada's version of Orange County, California, which is near a liberal city, but goes strongly Republican.
07 03 25 G. Kennedy (not that one)
O'Connor has turned into somewhat of a liability. But this is possibly the most conservative seat in the province, having voted for Day in 2000. No contest.
07 03 24 Daniel
Despite O'Connor's troubles, the Conservatives will easily retake this riding; it was a strong Alliance area during that area, and has been a strong Conservative area ever since.

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