Prediction Changed
2:40 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Beaches-East York
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Alleslev, Caroline
Carter, Roger
New Democratic
Churley, Marilyn
Markovski, Zoran
Minna, Maria

Hon. Maria Minna

2006 Result:
Maria Minna **
Marilyn Churley
Peter Conroy
Jim Harris
Jim Love
Roger Carter

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 initial
I went on a drive through all parts of the riding today with some family members. We counted the signs for all parties only on private property north and south of Danforth. I realize the results won't necessarily be reflected in the outcome on election day. Still, the number of signs must count for something. North of Danforth we counted the following signs: 89 Liberal, 27 Conservative, 96 NDP, 15 Green. So the NDP have a slight advantage, even in the usual Liberal stronghold of East York. South of Danforth we counted: 102 Liberal, 26 Conservative, 168 NDP, 59 Green. Overall, Churley looks likely to win, and the Greens could well beat out the Conservatives for 3rd.
08 10 11 dls
I found this a bit of a curious call for the Liberals (even thought they do always seem to win it). Just some food for thought there was the Jeff Gray piece in the G&M in which a Liberal (not for attribution) had stated the Liberal Party had essentially written this riding off and I think there was a poll in the Star the other day when they profiled the riding given the edge to Churley. Given the poll numbers I think this will be similar to re-match result last time in Trinty-Spadina, with Liberals down a bit in TO and the NDP up a bit.
08 10 09 Joshua Zuckerman
I think it's a couple days too early to predict a Liberal win in Beaches-East York. Minna is still vulnerable here, although not as vulnerable as when the Liberal numbers were low in Ontario. Now that the Liberal numbers are rising, Minna may be able to win, but so may Churley. (Democratic Space actually gives a small advantage to Churley right now.)
08 10 09 K
It is premature to give this one to the Liberals right now. Marilyn Churley (NDP) is well liked and has the southern half of the riding (Beaches) in the bag, while Minna may have an edge in the north of the riding, but many are disappointed in her. I think either way the winner will take this one by less than 1500 votes. The wild card is the Green Party who is up in the polls and it is very difficult to say which party they will bleed more votes from in this riding. The only fair assessment is TCTC.
08 10 08 T.V.
The NDP always predict that they're going to win this seat, but Minna always pulls it out in the end? Because the NDP dominate in the wealthier part of the riding where households generally have one or two people. Minna is strongest in the lower-income neighbourhoods where households are much larger.
08 09 30 David
I think maybe it was Minna who peaked too early in this riding. Up until last week I would have given her the edge but NDP campaign seems to have really taken off. Two flyers at my door in the past week. Well thought out and hitting issues in the riding. Lawn signs sprouting up everywhere. Maybe NDP was holding back to show momentum if not Churley's growing support very impressive. Also noticing that the Green party has a good visible presence and surprisingly a lot in East York - Minna's stregth. If that is indicative of voter intentions (?) Minna could be in for a shock.
08 09 30 R.O.
Churley like other ndp candidates from Toronto never seem to get elected on first try as Layton , Chow and Nash all lost at least once before they actually got elected. So for whatever reason second attempts seem to have better results for high profile ndp candidates. But this is the only seat the ndp can realistically gain in Toronto this election. the lack of a green leader running here is also likely to help the ndp a bit although the green vote might not go down from last election but unlikely to go up much either with a lower profile candidate.
08 09 26 I'm Always Right
The NDP peaked a little too early in this campaign and now Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have turned their guns on Jack Layton and the NDP platform. The attacks on Layton by the Conservatives this week got stronger as the week went on and will continue until we see the Dipper numbers start to slide. This will not help Marilyn Churley as she needs the NDP at 20 per cent or more in the polls in order to get her close to Maria Minna. Torontonian is right about Minna's personal popularity being a very big advantage in the Beaches. Churley has never been and will never be as popular as Minna. The Beaches will stay Liberal.
08 09 23 Torontonian537
Shotgun Willie brings up an important point - the Green Party will throw a wrench into this left-leaning district. I would add the caveat that Churley can't afford to lose NET votes to the Greens. Also, there is one element to this race Shotgun Willie does not mention - the Liberals are bleeding large quantities of votes to all three parties. If anyone but Minna was the Liberal candidate, they wouldn't have a prayer. The key to BEY is: will Minna's personal popularity keep enough people from switching their vote? The answer to that question will determine the winner on E-Day.
08 09 22 Shotgun Willie
I believe the key to Beaches-East York is the level of support the Green Party is able to reach on election day. Looking at the 2006 results the Green Party candidate received over 3000 votes. That is certainly a solid base from which to build. The question how closely will this riding resemble the other ones in Toronto where recent by-elections showed surprising support for the Green Party that came for the most part at the expense of the NDP. NDP candidate Churley cannot afford to lose votes to the Green Party and be successful. I believe the Green Party will get in excess of 4500 votes which will come from both Liberal Minna and NDP Churley. On the right flank, the Conservatives will not be picking up enough votes to damage Minna's total. In the end, Churley will not be able to withstand the loss of votes and Minna will be the winner in this rematch.
08 09 19 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
You can't compare the appearance of a party leader in a riding to the appearance of non-leader party big-wigs in a riding. Layton hopes to win this riding which his party currently does not hold. So of course he's going to make an appearance to tout his candidate. The Liberals currently hold this riding but it is threatened. The more worried they are with a riding, the more likely they will bring in the big guns to shore up support. They're not going to waste time bringing Dryden, Rae and Igantieff, etc to places like St Paul's or Don Valley East where they are sure to win. Having said that, we are not implyign either a Liberal or NDP win in this riding. The NDP do have a big name, much support in this riding, a popular leader and the Liberals are on the ropes, but Maria Minna has proven to be very resilient. If it was an open seat we'd have called this for the NDP already but with numbers as they are we'd give Maria the slight edge. An edge that could be lost very quickly, we might add.
08 09 17 JM
seamus noted that ‘If and when Ken Dryden and Michael Ignatieff come, then you'll really know Minna is full-out desperation mode.’ So Jack Layton visited the riding today, does that mean Marilyn is in full-out desperation mode?
08 09 15 RP
Even participants on, a bastion of hard core NDP partisans, are reporting that Minna is beating Churley on the sign war.
According to people in the Minna HQ, David Smith visited unannounced on Sunday and stayed for no more than 15 minutes while Minna was actually out canvassing (Smith, as Liberal campaign chair, was probably doing his round of checking up on the key campaign offices). The only way for seamus (SH is that really you?) to find out or even notice is that the NDP workers are spending more time spying on the Minna HQ than actually doing on-the-ground campaign work.
08 09 15 GN
I don't count signs in stores, but I do know who had whose signs on their lawns in the last few elections and Minna is winning this one.
08 09 15 seamus
When Senator David Smith spends the day in Beaches-East York, like he did today, you know Minna and the Liberals are getting worried. If and when Ken Dryden and Michael Ignatieff come, then you'll really know Minna is full-out desperation mode. Stay tuned!
08 09 14 JJ
I noticed that a ‘political observer’ has chosen to make an issue out of Ms. Churley's current address relative to the riding in which she is running. I think it is fairly well known that Ms. Minna was a parachute candidate from west end Toronto when she first ran in Beaches-East York in 1993.
08 09 14 Jake Joseph
Golly Durham Gal, I find it hard to believe you have been involved in many election campaigns if you think campaign signs displayed in the windows of businesses signals support. It's just a courtesy that local merchants offer to all campaigns from all parties. It's silly to suggest it means support for any one candidate. But I suspect you already knew that.
08 09 14 I'm Always Right
It was a bad week for the NDP as Layton was pressured into flip-flopping on the Elizabeth May leadership debate issue. Having May in the debate only helps cemente the Greens as the new and more interesting protest party on the Canadian scene. As last year's by-elections in Toronto showed, the Green Party is eating the NDP alive and actually passing them in a number of ridings in the race for third place. All of this makes for an easier campaign for Maria Minna who will hold the Liberal vote as Churley's NDP support slides more to the Green Party every day. It also doesn't help Churley that her party is running at 14 per cent nationally.
Easy victory for Minna, once again.
08 09 14 durham gal
I am an out of towner visiting in Beaches East York. I have never in my life seen such support as there is for Maria Minnia. When the businesses are not afraid to show their politcal support for a candidate you know that the candidate is strong. I wish in my many campaigns we would have had the declared support that is obvious for Minna. I would put my money on Minna.
08 09 11
As a political observer, I have to say that anyone who thinks this riding is going NDP is going to be red-faced come the morning of October 15th. There is no way Marilyn Churley can pull this riding away from Maria Minna. Marilyn does not even live in the riding (still!) even though she promised, after running in BEY the last time, that she would relocate here.
08 09 10 J Goneaux
The Green Party is picking up support from people who have stopped voting. I would imagine that they will bleed off some NDP votes, but the fact is, most of any rise they get will be from environmentalists and the like who gave up on the NDP years ago.
08 09 09 david gates
Let us now have someone from the Tory War Room state that the CPC candidate will win in B-EY. In 2006, the CPC said the same thing much to the annoyance of the Liberals. The CPC ran a good candidate in B-EY in 2006, they had the national trends in their favour and they still came third. This riding is a writeoff for the CPC. If the CPC won B-EY, they would likely be winning a huge majority of landslide proportions.
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
It's way too difficult to see this being Liberal anymore. The incumbent won by only 3000 votes last time and 7000 in 2004.
This time around there is no Liberal power to intoxicate the electorate of Beaches East York. Churley made strides last time. I think Bob Rae being a Liberal helps the Dippers now as the taint of that Ontario government is worn by Bob and not his former caucus.
There is no chance in hell that my Conservatives get this one but there is a good chance that people are still rejecting the established power and in this case it is a tired Liberal party candidate that will be sacrificed by Lefties who are proud of the likes of Layton, Chow and Nash and who would love to have Churley added to the roster.
08 09 09 Read Everything
Marilyn Churley has been in the riding knocking on doors and attending community events since the last election. As for Beaches-East York being a stronghold, Minna is the exception - the riding is strongly represented by two New Democrat city councilors, provincial NDP leadership candidate Michael Prue and even a New Democrat school trustee.
With the support of these local leaders Marilyn will continue to attract former Liberal voters.
08 05 24 I'm Always Right
You know the Dippers are desperate when they start digging up voting patterns from the days of Neil Young! This is not the same riding it was 30 years ago. Beaches-East York now is a Liberal stronghold with a high profile and very active MP in Minna. The real question is, where is Marilyn Churley. She is not attending all the regular event politicians show up for and nobody seems to be able to explain why. Minna works harder than Churley, has the Liberal brand and the better campaign organization.
08 05 18 Torontonian537
As usual, the Dippers are claiming that this is the election they'll finally beat Maria Minna. Like most claims of inevitable victory based on superior virtue, the new reasons for Beaches-East York voters throwing out their MP ring hollow. The NDP will focus their attention on keeping Olivia Chow and Peggy Nash in Parliament, leaving few resources for another quixotic run by Marilyn Churley. Green will have a more significant role here in the next election - they hit bottom with Jim Harris, who was too right-wing for his party's target audience in this riding - a more progressive candidate will garner more support, an event which cannot be good news for Churley. Despite the Liberals' weak leader, Minna will win by an increased margin.
08 05 08 seamus
Churley may not be able to count on the Beach like Neil Young use to be able to count on the Beach vote. However, she'll more than make up the votes from the dissatisfaction that exists in recent immigrant communities towards Minna and her leader (if you can call him that) Dion. Churley by a couple hundred votes.
08 05 06 Sheriff Lobo
I think part of the problem is that the NDP still cling to the idea that the aging children of the 60's who live in the Beaches vote NDP. That's simply not true any more. These people live in very expensive homes and pay a lot of property taxes and other taxes. The days of voting for a party who's stick it to the rich are over for this group. This leaves Churley short of votes in the Beaches while she's been unable to dig into Minna's support in the northern part of this riding.
08 04 09 R.O.
Well it is a rematch of the last election here well at least the 2 main candidates Maria Minna and Marilyn Churley. Both main candidates bring some experience to the race. The by-elections were good news to the liberals but they do not guarantee a win here. As this is one of the most ndp ridings in toronto that the federal ndp does not currently hold. It is ndp at the provincial level and more or less a stronghold. An interesting factor is former green leader Jim Harris ran here in last election and I do not think he is running again. So the greens without a leader here might not focus as much here. Although his vote total was not that high compared to other green candidates in other ridings.
But it could stay liberal or it could go ndp its really too early to say.
08 03 22 I'm Always Right
There is no doubt now that the surging Green Party is eating the NDP alive. What does this mean in the Beaches? It means Churley can't possibly threaten Minna. The Greens have a natural constituency in the aging hippie sections of the Beaches and will gain ground there. The Green Party has a message while Layton's NDP are stuck spouting slogans from the 1970's that just don't connect with the electorate. You can bet the Minna people were very pleased with the March 17 results.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
Sorry but I have to respond to the no name NDPer who recently posted his party spin for Beaches-East York. Claiming Minna is bleeding Crescent Town is simply typical wishful thinking on the part of the NDP. Colle-gate was never the NDP hoped it would be and has long been forgotten.
What the no-name NDP doesn't want to talk about is how Churley can't break through is much of old East York, even with the help of Michael Prue from Queen's Park. There will be lots of back and forth between NDP spinners and Liberals on this riding. Just like last time. None of that will mean anything as I said earlier, Minna will win by 3000 votes this time and Churley will keep trying.
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
Maria Minna is going be beat Marilyn Churley again because Maria will out work Churley. Minna spends her time during the writ knocking on doors all day long while Churley preps for television and looks to make speeches. This was the case in 2006 and it will be again. Minna and her political machine are simply too much for Churley. The Liberals keep the Beaches.
08 03 01
Don't count out Churley - Beaches-East York voters don't take too kindly to Minna's party's stance on Afghanistan and their poor record while in government on the environment. Let's not forget her direct involvement in securing a grant for a Bangali group as part of ‘Colle-gate’. Minna's bleeding traditional support in Crescent Town and progressive vote in the Beach. Should be tight and chippy affair! Churley by a few hairs.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
I just don't see why there's going to be a different result in the Beaches this time. The Liberals and the NDP are about in the same place in the polls where they were last time. Maria Minna is well known and has the better campaign team. Marilyn Churley still can't compete when it comes to campaign teams and still seems shrill. I predict Minna wins by 3000 this time.
08 02 12 Stevo
Quick Draw, turns out I agree with you here. Churley is headed for defeat once more. Oh by the way, you may not have noticed that IP addresses are included underneath each person's nickname. I suppose you are I'm Always Right's spouse? Otherwise it would indicate that you are using two aliases, and you wouldn't do that, would you?
08 02 09 Quick Draw
May and her party do very well in ridings like the Beaches where rich hippies from the 60's have given up on the NDP and the always bitter Marilyn Churley and now support the Greens. Minna will have a BIG victory here by simply holding the Grit vote. Sadly another humiliating loss won't mean we've seen the end of Churley. She'll run for city council (and lose) while she waits for the next provincial or federal election. So the King of K will have lots of opportunities to knock on doors for Churley. Minna could have her biggest victory yet this spring. Sorry King!
07 12 16 Kin of Kensington
To ‘I'm Always Right’ (a.k.a. ‘I'm Never Wrong’ who got it wrong for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Thornhill in the provincial election): certainly the Liberals can continue to hold Beaches-East York but by 10,000 votes??? Maria Minna won by about 7,000 votes in '04 but Marilyn Churley closed the gap to 3,000 in '06. The NDP didn't win like in Trinity-Spadina or Parkdale-High Park because they had to overcome a bigger Liberal margin of victory.
This can go either way. The only NDPer who I think would be a guaranteed winner here is Stephen Lewis, as the mix of upscale Beaches and working class anglo semi-suburban areas further north somewhat akin to his old provincial riding are good demographics for him, but he has probably closed the door on electoral politics for good.
07 12 16 A.S.
Er, I can see how it's possible that Churley might fall short again. But I *can't* see how it's possible that Minna will win by 10,000 votes, not next door to Jack Layton, uh uh, no way, not unless the NDP falls to 1993 levels or worse, and with Gerard Kennedy replacing Stephane Dion as national Liberal leader on top of that. Hey, ‘I'm Always Right’, you might come closer to living up to your name if you spigot out that excess testosterone in your predictions...
07 12 14 I'm Always Right
Watch for desperate NDPers to fill this site with reasons why Churley is going to beat Minna this time. The truth is that Churley has the chance to become the Sid Ryan of east end Toronto. Every election the lefty media will call for her to come through and instead she'll fall flat on her face just like good old Sid.
No new pick ups for the NDP next time, including this riding where Minna wins by 10,000 votes next time.
07 11 09 seasaw
Maria's been a solid MP for many years. Though, not always articulate, she has represented the area very well. She's worked hard and earned her place. The only way she won't return, would be by retiring. If Maria decides not to run, this riding would be open for anybody to take.
07 11 01 T.V.
This is crazy. Every time the NDP put up a star candidate, and every time the NDP and media say this time they're going to win it. They've never come close, even with the disastrous 2006 Liberal campaign and about the biggest star candidate that they could field in Marilyn Churley. The next campaign will be exactly the same, with Minna winning by at least a couple thousand.
07 05 08 Layin' Down the Facts
It must be a real honor for Churley to have so many famous and important people at her nomination meeting, but I don't think it will change the outcome of the election. The NDP seems to try to shuffle its candidates from riding to riding often. In this particular case, Churley left her seat in the legislature for Toronto-Danforth to run here last time and lost, while Peter Tabuns, who ran and lost in this riding federally in 2004, picked up the provincial seat in neighboring Danforth. Tabuns, former executive director of Greenpeace Canada, was also a strong candidate but he failed to even come within 7,000 votes of Minna.
Lets look at the numbers: In the 2006 federal election, the Liberals won just shy of 40% of the vote in Ontario, while the NDP won 19.4%, and Minna won by over 2,500 votes, which is a relatively narrow, but not an insignificant margin. Recent polls place the Liberals at 44% and the NDP at 13% in Ontario. In fact, of 17 different polls taken since mid-march, only one places the NDP above 19.4: probably the one where the result was NOT accurate ‘19 times out of 20.’ The next highest result was 17, and most were around 15 or 14.
Finally, it should be noted that Jim Harris ran here last election as the leader of the Green Party. Although he did relatively poorly, his votes will bleed to the Liberals if to anyone. Considering that Harris was a fiscally-conservative former PC, I doubt any of his personal support will go NDP. Given the alliance between May's Green Party and the Liberals, many people primarily concerned with the environment will realize that the Greens are a lost cause and that Minna under Dion is the most effective 'green' vote. Regardless, there isn't that much Green Party vote to begin with. Churley would have needed 90% of the Green vote last election to put her over the top.
David Suzuki is a big name, but the Liberals have a virtual endorsement from the Greens, and there isn't much Green vote to steal anyhow. And unless Ghomeshi personally sacrifices his career as a TV journalist to interfere with the election, I doubt his support makes much of a difference. The presence of so many big names from the party indicates that the NDP machine is going to work hard to win this one next election, but the cards are not in their favor. If Minna runs a solid campaign, and if the polls don't invert themselves, Minna will hold it.
07 05 01 Seamus
What are smoking RJ? Marilyn Churley was uncontested for the NDP nominated which happened in February! The nomination came a week after a Tribute Dinner that attracted over 300 people. The honorary co-chairs were Mayor David Miller, David Suzuki, June Callwood, Shirley Douglas, Judy Rebick and Heather Malick and emceed by Jian Ghomeshi and featured a performance by Sarah Harmer. Layton and Hampton both attended and Layton, Rebick, Malick and David Christopherson all spoke.
The ‘Colle-gate’ scandal is hurting Minna in Crescent Town, in particular, and East York and the Beach in general. Churley is picking up support from long-time local Liberals in the Bengali community.
07 04 27 Tom
Jim Harris drew a lot of NDP voters to the Greens last time. The Greens are not continuing Harris's absurd ‘antagonize the NDP’ strategy. Maria Minna is a weak and unpopular incumbent while Marilyn Churley is well-liked. I was surprised that Minna held on in 2006, but I doubt she will in 2007. Narrowly, narrowly for Churley.
07 04 26 R J Anderson
Minna by a landslide. Churley's burnt her bridges in the NDP and may not be re-nominated, and she was the strongest candidate they could have had, short of Michael Prue going federal (and it's not clear which party Prue'd go federal with, he has lots of friends in the Liberals and in the Greens).
Jim Harris did fairly well despite his ludicrous assertion that he'd win. A thousand votes will likely go Liberal given the Green versus NDP feuding and May's stamp of approval on Dion.
07 04 17 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
So the latest poll says that the CPC is not doing as fabulously as we have all thought and are actually lower than they were in 2006. This doesn't bode well for NDp fortunes in this riding which were partly hoping on Liberal votes going CPC. TCTC but we say the edge goes to the Liberals.
07 04 08 free_thinker
This is going to be close but will fall to the NDP for one main reason; a chunk of the Liberal vote will fall to the CPC following national trends paving way for the NDP to come up the middle. Furthermore, Churley knows what she needs to do now - look for her to pick this up for the NDP.
07 04 07 A.S.
The TCTC logic is plain and simple: Maria Minna's no Gerard Kennedy. And if Churley couldn't win it last time, she had strikes against her: parachuted in from next door (where her more greeny-touchy-feely NDPness was arguably more at home), and facing a surprisingly feisty Tory candidate as well as the federal Green leader, she wasn't as clear-cut the nominal viable ‘anti-Minna’ option as she'd hoped. And by being a sore loser (lashing out at Mayor Miller and threatening to run against him, etc), Churley added another potential strike after the fact. But, I guess in the end, she's still too valuable to waste. And as long as Michael Prue holds it provincially, the ‘if not then, then never’ argument against the NDP won't hold--after all, Churley did win oodles of more polls than Peter Tabuns did the previous election. So if the NDP winds up trading a Nash for a Churley, they'll be satisfied.
07 04 07 Nick J Boragina
I dont really see the logic in declaring Parkdale to be Liberal, and yet making this one too close to call. Sure you have a Liberal ?Star Candidate?, but even NDP ?Star? Marylin Churly could not win here last time. Polls show the NDP's support at around half what it was last election. If an NDP star cannot win this riding with the Party at 19% provincewide, she will not win it with the party at 11%.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Considering that Marilyn Churley was considered a strong candidate and still couldn't take this, I think Maria Minna is pretty safe. This may go NDP provincially, but lets remember Maria Minna is generally on the left of the party so many NDP-Liberal swing voters are quite comfortable supporting her.
07 03 30 Rey D.R.
With Churley running again it sets up a rematch with Minna. Churley coming within 2,500 or so votes last time. Like Trinty-Spadina this one will likely come down to the national campaign and should be TCTC for now. Give Minna the edge since she's the incumbent.
07 03 27 King of Kensington
Too early to tell whether this riding will go Liberal or NDP. The old Beaches riding was held by the NDP, but Beaches-East York never was partly due to declining NDP fortunes in the 90s but also due to its more conservative East York part. Also the Conservatives fare much worse than the old PC's did which has benefitted the Liberals. In the last election, Marilyn Churley won the ‘trendy’ polls by the lake but she was clobbered by Maria Minna in East York.

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