Prediction Changed
6:04 PM 11/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Hughes, Carol
Musgrove, Dianne
Rekmans, Lorraine
St. Denis, Brent

Brent St. Denis

2006 Result:
Brent St. Denis **
Carol Hughes
Ian West
Sarah Hutchinson
Will Morin
Donald Milton Polmateer

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 SD
Hughes was way to close in the last election not come through with a win on this go. I think it will still be close but definitely NDP.
With the number of firearms owners in this riding I am surprised at the lack of Conservative support; since they are the only party not talking about gun bans and have also indicated they will scrap the long gun registry. Perhaps a a stronger candidate would have helped.
08 09 27 NJam101
This one really made me analyze many details about this riding that covers areas that are quite different from one another. One thing I know for sure is that the Conservative candidate won't win. There was actually very little voter movement from 2004 to 2006. There are a lot of smaller towns and the largest place is Elliot Lake with about 11,000 people. In much of North American this would be the type of region that would vote heavily conservative/republican but this is Northern Ontario which is an exception. Many of the towns are suffering from economic decline and are losing population. Lumber mills have been shut down and many have been laid off. There is no reason for people to all of a sudden support the current government. There is also a traditionally strong Liberal base. BUT, NDP support has increased recently and also somewhat among francophones. It remains to be seen if it is having any effect is this riding. Wawa and Chapleau have voted NDP in the past and places like Kapuskasing and Hearst could shift more that way this time. Kap and Hearst have NDP MPP Gilles Bisson. How those two towns ended up in this riding is very strange. Hearst traditionally votes Liberal and did last time. Kap is split between Lib and NDP. Manitouwadge is mainly NDP. Wawa is more NDP, Chapleau is split and so are Blind River and Elliot Lake. Espanola is mainly NDP. Some of the smaller places are strongly NDP or Liberal and some split. First Nations have been largely Liberal. The conservatives do have some pockets of strong support in some of thecommunities on the north shore of Lake Huron and non-native Manitoulin but it doesn't amount to a lot. So really I don't see much of a shift happening again overall and St. Denis will win as there isn't really a major reason to not vote for him. Oh and BTW, from what I read, Harper was NOT in Blind River or Wawa. His bus just went through along Highway 17 on the way to Dryden. The PM arrived in Dryden by airplane.
08 09 26 I'm Always Right
I've actually lost track of how many time Carol Hughes has run unsuccessfully in this riding. If the NDP really thought they were going to take a shot at Brent St. Denis they would have come up with a new, much stronger candidate this time. It's pretty clear the NDP see the chance at picking up some northern ontario seats but from the candidate they picked hear to the lack luster campaign they're running, I think they are putting their resources in other ridings. Brent St. Denis is well known and well respected in his riding and in this part of Ontario that makes a difference if you're the incumbent. Hughes will come up short once again and St.Denis keeps his riding.
08 09 26 northbynorthwest
St. Denis must be sweating, with the prime minister in his riding in Wawa and Blind River, and a three-way horse race in play. My sense with Carol Hughes and her strong French is that she will take critical Liberal votes in those northern Franco-Ontario communities in the riding. Last time it was same sex marriage biting at St. Denis' heels. This time it is Dion, the green shift and the no show for votes in the last Parliament. New Democrats released across the north this week a Northern Ontario platform. I think there are the first party to ever do this in any coordinated fashion. A three-way race helps the Conservatives but probably allows Hughes to lower her threshold for victory.
08 09 23
Its looking like some history could be made in Al-Man-Kap Election 08.The core of this huge rural riding which was redistributed northward to include Kapuskasing in 06 has voted Liberal since the 30's, and as old timers are quick to point out ..Algoma was the riding that MP whispering Tom Farquhar stepped aside and into the Senate from to give a safe seat to L.B. Mike Pearson in the 50's. This riding also has the distinction both provincially and federally of not defeating any incumbent for like a 100 years !In Algoma Manitoulin the seat has changed hands provincially between the Tories and the Liberals but ONLY after the retirement of the incumbent. Bud Wildman held the provincial Algoma portion of the federal riding for the NDP but he shrank away from a head on with Mike Brown after Harris reduced the northern ridings merging the two. Brown,still the Liberal MPP has 21 years at Queens Park.
All this stuff makes it hard to believe that Brent St Denis could be the first Liberal and the first incumbent to lose in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing for a very very long time...?
08 09 23 RR Shaw
Traditionally, the francophone community largely votes Liberal. However, in the last election, there was a significantly larger francophone sway towards the NDP, as many voters in the small francophone hamlets tired of the Liberals in the wake of the sponsorship scandal. The Green Shift and the Liberals' dismal showing in the House this past year has the potential to further drive electors to the NDP, and squeak Hughes to victory.
On the other hand, the francphone vote shift towards the NDP could have been a single-election phenomenon. St. Denis, while meek and not truly francophone (his roots are, but French is very obviously his second language), has name recognition as the MP. He's a nice guy and has done his best to align himself with the advocacy undertaken by his NDP neighbours Angus and Bisson. Carol Hughes has name recognition too, however it's the kind that has come from losing a few elections in a row.
This will be close, with either candidate taking it.
08 09 21 PY
With all due respect, E.B., the riding skews a bit older and most young people, if they can afford it, tend to leave...otherwise people here do have longer memories than you give them credit for and to suggest that the families that have had long-standing roots in the riding have been uninformed for even bothering to vote Liberal all these years is absolutely unwarranted. Also, consider that the face of Carol Hughes's hometown is more likely to be an aged one who's not as likely to vote NDP.
Brent St. Denis did ask of former colleague David Emerson to provide answers as to why he made what ended up being a sweetheart deal with the Americans on softwood lumber, but it was no better than talking to a brick wall.
Ed Broadbent may have been NDP leader years ago, but his promises were rejected here back then and Jack Layton's current ones will likely ring hollow today.
08 09 19 RDG
I was told in no uncertain terms when I made a crack about the Liberals that ‘this was Mr. Pearson's riding, you know’. If that sentiment is still prevalent even though the old guy has been dead and gone for thirty five years, woe betide any one foolish enough to run on any ticket but Liberal.
08 09 17 E.B.
PY, Foster and Turner was a long time ago, let it be, times have changed, and we cant live in the past. People, have more information today than we had back then, I am sure, things would have been different if all the voters back then had access to all the information we have today.
You mentioned that Brent ‘demanded an answer from the tories as to why Mr West got himself entangled in the party's in and out electorial scheme’. I think he would have made more points, if ‘he strongly demanded from the Tores and answer to the Soft wood problems in his riding and the downfall of the economies in his riding’, this I beleive would have made more of an impact, with me that the Ian West affair.
08 09 15 PY
Well, guess what? One month after getting a visit from Carol Hughes and Peter Tabuns, my parents got one from Brent and his wife. They both acknowledged how close the race is, but that as far as the response in Espanola's been, it's still been largely positive and there haven't been that many people harping on Dion.
Maurice Foster was able to transcend John Turner's performance as Liberal leader; in fact, the closest that the NDP came in my lifetime was within 1350 votes or so in 1984. I wouldn't be surprised if Brent St. Denis is able to rise above the negative perceptions of Dion. Now whether Carol Hughes can shake off the slickness of Jack Layton as NDP leader, I'm not so sure.
I also remember one session of Question Period where Brent St. Denis demanded an answer from the Tories as to why Ian West, who ran for them in the last campaign (and whom I still remember from my University of Windsor days), got himself entangled in the web that is the party's in-and-out electoral scheme. The NDP has been slow to take Harper on about this and it could be to Hughes's detriment. It also might not bode well for the Conservative candidate this time around, one Dianne Musgrove.
08 09 12 northbynorthwest
What happens in Algoma Manitoulin will be a big sign of what happens in Northern Ontario and across the country. It was one of five or six Northern Ontario ridings the NDP lead for a good part of the 2006 election count until the strong Liberal polls reported. Brent St. Denis is a good constituency backbencher. He’ll be helped, or more likely hurt, by what happens to Dion nationally. He also has to answer for the abstentions of many of the Northern Ontario Liberals, a point being hammered home by the NDP. This is one of the northern ridings the NDP have been bombarding with literature in between elections. NDP candidate Carol Hughes has more name recognition this time and knowledge of the rural area and issues. I think she is fluent in French and has to make inroads in the Liberal-leaning Franco Ontarien northern communities in the riding. Given what I suspect will happen nationally, I think Hughes may lead all night this time.
08 09 09 Swift
It is not going to take a disaster for Brent to lose. A drop of just 1000 votes with 600 going to the NDP will turn the trick. I think it will be a little more than that and may be enough to give the Conservatives a chance for second. The Conservatives should get a bounce from not having an outsider running for them.
08 09 08 PY
Swift, slow down. One day into the campaign and the sky's falling? I highly doubt there'll be a mass exodus of longtime Liberals who'll suddenly flock to the Tories. There are people who remember the Turner meltdown and stuck it out with Maurice Foster. They've come to know Brent St. Denis for the last fifteen years and making the switch to Carol Hughes and the NDP would be far too great a leap to take. Not everyone's a fan of Layton here. This will probably be a town-to-town battle, with Brent clinging to the seat perhaps by 1500 or less.
08 09 06 Swift
The last thing the struggling forestry industry needs now is a carbon tax. Both the NDP ad the Conservatives will be picking up Liberal votes. The question here is will the Conservatives overtake the Liberals for second place.
08 09 05 E.B.
Carol has run before and gave Brent a scare. When Brent's Liberals where in Power, the Softwood problem started and they did nothing, and now with the Concervatives running the show, the problem has taken a life of its own. Brents Riding, is full of Sawmill Closures, White River, Dubreuilville, Kapuskasing, Hearst, the list goes on. I think this will cause, the support that the Liberals had in the Riding to fall apart. The only alternative would be the NDP, unless the Conservatives come up with a star. I think its an NDP WIN
08 08 07 PY
According to my parents, Peter Tabuns came up to Espanola to help Carole Hughes in spreading the word around that indeed she's running again.
What this means is not only does the NDP want the seat, but they might well see my hometown as a key battleground for votes.
My parents have been in town since the mid-70s but wouldn't dare vote NDP and weren't convinced by the song-and-dance routine from Tabuns and Hughes. If anything, she would be better off to target the younger families and ones that haven't established themselves for very long. Still, I doubt Hughes will get the numbers she wants.
07 12 19 R.O.
Well this northern riding has been solidly liberal for years was even home to liberal PM at one time but that was years ago . and in the last election the ndp came close here and even the conservatives did better than expected and better than provincial results for same riding . but realistically race is between liberals and ndp here . unsure if forestry problems would have an affect here or help ndp but libs still have strong mp in Brent St Denis, say too close to call for now.
07 09 25 Eugene.B
I am calling an NDP win when the next federal election is called. Carol Hughes, won the NDP riding nomination and she is no longer an unknown. Last election she came 1,409 votes from taking this riding from Mr. St. Denis. I think, with her name being known from the last election, Mr. St. Denis, should be worried.
07 05 02 PY
I will agree with you on two points you raised, A.S.: the Island going Liberal, which as I came to know it, was helped a bit with a little buzz about the FPNP from Wikwemikong and secondly, about Ian West's candidacy for the Tories. As far as I knew, he was ‘that guy from Windsor with the cottage’ and didn't endear himself to the electorate as he hoped (I came to know of him when I was studying at the University of Windsor).
Not everyone's been left with the feeling that Brent has ignored us...he's come through with funding (FedNor and otherwise) on a number of occasions and surprisingly was able to secure for Espanola a very modest portion of gas tax money from the Martin government.
I believe the sting of the sponsorship scandal made people think twice about their vote in last year's campaign, but it'll be events such as the ones I mentioned before that may well keep things close away from the Island and the Blind River-Elliot Lake-Espanola triangle and I've also suggested places that could be in play (Chapleau, too, if you will), so it won't be a slam dunk. Even though no one I know at home was tempted by the NDP, there are undoubtedly those who are considering them...just how many will make that leap and whether there are enough of them is the question.
07 04 24 A.S.
Yes, maybe you can't see a ?large-scale electoral shift?, but look at the stats: now, even a *small*-scale shift can take the Liberals out. So, fourteen years of hard constituency work in the land of Mike Pearson and Moe Foster, and that's the thanks you get? And an even stranger thing happened from '04 to '06: thanks to a weaker Tory candidate (and a bolstered Wikwemikong reserve vote), the traditional Tory stronghold of Manitoulin swung *to* the Grits. In fact, if not for Manitoulin plus advance polls, this'd be an NDP seat now. Yes, Mike Pearson's seat. NDP. And given the history of provincial representation (think Bud Wildman, etc), it isn't like it should be surprising or anything. Main catch now, beyond whatever may happen to the relative Liberal/NDP poll numbers, is whether the Northern Dippers get overly distracted by the apparent dead-cert open-seat pickups in Nickel Belt and TB-SN...
07 04 23 PY
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict another win from Brent St. Denis despite the aftermath of Domtar's merger with a division of U.S. paper giant Weyerhauser which led to the closure of the sawmill at Nairn Centre and layoffs at the Espanola mill. Emotions might be high enough for some to vote for the NDP in protest, but I feel cooler heads will prevail and I still don't see a large-scale electoral shift coming from my generation to tilt this enough for the NDP to win.
But then again, I could be proven wrong by places like Wawa, Manitouwadge and Kapuskasing. Whoever the NDP's candidate is, he/she will need to work very hard to win because Brent has worked very hard for his constituents since taking the reins from Maurice Foster. Most people aren't going to forget that unless the NDP candidate is a compelling one or Layton makes another trip up here and is successful in convincing voters that Brent's time is up. A close win for Brent.
07 04 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
With Grit numbers down against the Torys, and a Liberal/NDP race that was tight last time, a small pull from the CPC may allow the NDP to narrowly take this one. One to watch.

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