08 10 10	dls 67.193.129.146
Recent SEGMA Poll has the Bloc ahead by a 21 points amongst decided voters. Easy hold by the Bloc. http://pdf.cyberpresse.ca/lapresse/rapport1.pdf
	08 09 13	rebel 99.246.104.177
With the Conservative vote still low in Montreal but robust in the rest of Quebec, this is exactly the type of riding that they should be picking up. There is not going to be any vote-splitting here with the withering Liberals and the Bloc itslef is especially suffering amongst semi-rural ridings.
	07 08 07	binriso 156.34.237.194
In 1965, the Liberals defeated the Social Credit incumbent, only to lose this seat back to them in 1968 during Trudeaumania(!?! thats nuts). Well im pretty sure the BQ will win here because of vote-splitting and the Liberals held their vote here decently well for 2006. No doubt the Conservatives will be a solid 2nd this time, but i dont think that there will be enough room for them to win.
	07 05 21	Phil D. 64.230.39.77
Et si cela ne suffisait pas, Shefford a aussi une histoire provinciale toute aussi particulière; une de seulement 23 péquistes en 1985 (d'assez peu, tout comme en 1981 alors qu'il était libéral auparavant...), de 29 en 1989 (mais avec une plus grosse majorité),et puis en 1994... PAF! On passe au PLQ dans une partielle, alors que le PQ en avait gagné plusieurs auparavant, et reste PLQ alors qu'il perd le pouvoir en septembre. Même scénario en 1998, sauf que l'ADQ réalise 22% et Brodeur passe par 73 voix, puis par une majorité plus grande en 2003. Mais le 26 mars dernier, l'ADQ a quand même gagné par 14,5%! Il y a clairement des tendances droitistes ici, quoique un député sortant peut compter pour beaucoup, mais seulement après le coup (il ne suit pas les vagues). Les conservateurs pourraient gagner ce siège même sans augmentation significatif au Québec, mais pourraient la voir passer. Dans le cas de l'ADQ, il ne faut pas oublier qu'il a fait beaucoup de congrè politiques ici, il était donc déjà assez considéré. Et il ne faut pas exclure les libéraux d'emblée pour les mêmes raisons. To wit, Shefford also has a chequered provincial past; Liberal in 1976 as they were being slaughtered, PQ narrowly in 1981, 1985 and 1994 although they were either at their best result or being slaughtered. Then it flips Liberal in a 1994 by-election even though they recently lost many seats that way, and stayed that way until just March with some incipient ADQ strength (many party congresses held, a right-wing mayor, a strong result in 98). The win in March was decisive and would likely have occured even if the ADQ only won 20 seats. Therefore the Conservatives have good prospects but the national campaign will not be enough to say what happens. The liberals would need to see some more increase and hope for a big split to win (probably with less than 30% of the vote). Forget the dippers - even from a Quebec point of view their result was terrible!
	07 05 09	A.S. 74.99.222.209
A Wrong-Way Corrigan of a federal seat when it hasn't been Bloc, Shefford was (under Jean Lapierre) the only non-Montreal/Outaouais Quebec seat to resist the Mulroney tide in both '84 and '88...yet it went Charest PC in '97! Then PCer Diane St-Jacques went Liberal, was reelected in '00, defeated by the Bloc in '04, and nudged into third place by the Tory tide in '06 (similar to fellow party-jumper David Price in Compton-Stanstead). Today, the mood (set by Granby/Bromont, especially) has a strong pang of entrepreneurial-class Adequiste, which means, watch the Tories...OTOH if St-Jacques ran yet again for the Grits, we could just as well see Shefford go contrarian again as a BQ isle in a sea of Tory blue? Far-fetched, but...