08 04 05	PJ 70.55.110.21
While we must always remember that 6 months in politics is history, a quick look at the 2007 provincial election gives us an insight into voting trends. The St-Lambert federal riding includes the provincial ridings of Laporte (Lib), Marie-Victorin (PQ) and a small portion of Taillon (PQ). Granted the PQ vote was divided with Quebec Solidaire and while soft nationalists voted ADQ, but it is interesting to see that the PQ only scored in Laporte (non-star candidate) 25%, in Marie-Victorin (Star candidate) 40% and Taillon (Star candidate) 35%. In turn the combined total of Prov libs + ADQ scores were 63% in Laporte, 50% in Marie-Victorin and 55% in Taillon. Conclusion, there is voter fatigue in this traditional PQ stronghold. Another interesting point, is a post by a reporter on the blog of the local paper Longueuil Extra. http://hebdosblogue.canoe.ca/longueuilextra/2008/03/20/qui_parle_pour_longueuil This paper, and sister paper Courrier du Sud, have always been pro-separation. Yet in this post ?Qui parle pour Longueuil?, the reporter clearly states that the greater South Shore has no MP in government or the Official Opposition, no one in influence to bring forward local projects. So with the weakness of the Federal Libs in francophone voters, and the non-results of 18 years of Bloc MP's, is the time ripe for a conservative win.
	08 04 02	Smok Wawelski 74.15.60.81
first off, St Lambert and Longueuil are two vastly different places, the former is affluent the latter is not. Maka kotto won because of his celebrity status, combined with scandal surrounding Yolande Thibault and Adscam. If Dion has gone ahead and parachuted ANOTHER candidate in would seem to seal the deal, and Federalists will rally around Patrick Clune who has worked hard to build a profile. Minus Kotto's star power, the Bloc will be at a slight disadvantage viz 2004 & 2006.
	08 03 29	PJ 70.55.99.175
In so far as the Liberal candidate, it should be pointed out that she was parachuted by Dion himself over the wishes of most members of the riding association. Local papers quoted the 2006 candidate as saying that they by-passed a local city councilor to appoint a Dion leadership campaign director. That alone is the kiss of death (Look to Outremont and Saskatchewan). She is formerly from western Canada and does not live riding. Just what you need to win over local votes. It should also be noted the 60% of the riding is in Longueuil where Ren? Levesque, Pauline Marois and today Bernard Drainville (formely of Radio-Canada) have their provincial ridings. Longueuil will always a nationalist stronghold. St?phane Dion will NEVER win in Longueuil. So anybody that calls for a liberal win in Saint-Lambert is NUTS. The Conservative candidate tripled his vote from 04 to 2006 and was 2nd in 60% of the Longueuil polls, but yes far behind the Bloc. He does live in the riding and is the son of Conservative Senator Andr?e Champagne. Don't forget that the CPC came in within 1500 votes of winning St-Hyacinthe last September. With recent polls from CROP indicating an even split in Quebec between the Bloc and CPC, Liberal voters will have a difficult choice of splitting the vote and giving away the riding to the separatist or voting conservative and have a shot at beating the Bloc.
	08 03 24	binriso 156.34.209.176
Alright this is probably a BQ win by default but theres a chance for both the Liberals and the CPC. CPC arent strong enough here though it looks like, lets point out their sub-20% showing last time around. The Liberals beat the CPC here by about 2000 votes last time, but they were still less than 25% overall and about 20 points back of the BQ. NDP and Green predictions are nuts unless they get absolute super-star candidates. Itll probably just go back BQ again, but theres some hope for federalist parties(Liberals took it twice in 1997 and 2000), although theyll probably split the votes nicely like they will in several other Quebec ridings, which will allow several more BQ MPs to be elected, with likely less than 40% of the votes. On second look CPC have the same candidate as the last couple elections, not necessarily anyone high profile or having any great chance here. Liberals have a shot here now if they get someone good. Thatd be a huge win for Dion although unlikely. One other thing the Tories didnt really improve in Willowdale either, they got pretty much the same as in the last election.
	08 03 20	Smok Wawelski 74.15.60.81
Without Maka Kotto, this one becomes a race. The Bloc only took the seat in '04 because The heat was on over Adscam and they had celebrity Kotto on the ballot. The Liberals may be damaged goods in Quebec right now, but there are enough educated Montreal types there who will not vote BQ. This one will all be about turnout, so let's ask the following questions: 1) How fired up are Bloc voters in this suburban , and somewhat upscale riding? 2) Do the Liberals still have an organization to speak of there? 3) In light of the Tories improved fortunes in Vancouver Quadra and Willowdale, will they have a chance here? 4) Will the federalist vote coalesce around either the Liberal or the Tory? IMHO, it is in the best interests of both the Liberals and tories to inflict as much damage on the Bloc as possible. As long as the Bloc remains a force strong enough to snap 20 + seats in QC, it will be very difficult for either of the two major parties to ever get a majority again. If the Bloc can hang on here, it gives them some momentum in the region for the next federal vote. If they are taken down, the reluctance of people to back a loser may cause enough Bloquistes to stay home or switch allegiances that this and neighbouring seats might flip to a federalist party. In any case the federalist party who can find a quality, high profile candidate will be at a distinct advantage.
	08 02 16	A.S. 99.233.96.153
No Maka, yet maybe the Liberals no maka the comeback--after all, were it not for St Lambert and Greenfield Park, CPC would've been in second. As something the Liberals lost in '04 rather than '06, it's accordingly lower on the pecking order--and remember, too, how ex-Grit MP Yolande Thibeault's own election to Parliament came under the Gomery cloud. Okay, ‘that was then’, and especially without Maka Kotto there's no BQ guarantee here either. Tories, maybe? (Yeah, right.)
	07 11 14	Pharmboy 70.68.94.164
Mr. Kotto is switching to provincial politics and is running for the PQ in the upcoming yet-to-be called by-election. (See article in the Globe) http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071113.wkotto13/BNStory/National/home This riding has always been a federalist-sovereignist marginal. Won by the Liberals right up till the sponsorship scandal. If the federalist vote is not split (i.e. Liberal vote collapsing, strong Con numbers in Quebec), this will become a very competitive BQ-Con marginal, assuming Kotto is successful at the provincial level or no federal election happens before then.
	07 10 24	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 204.187.16.106
The conservatives will do well in rural Quebec but St Lambert most certainly is not a rural riding. It is suburban and suburban Montreal is not fertile ground (yet?) for the CPC. Furthermore, St Lambert is a very close suburb to the city, you can see the downtown skyline from much of it. Much as with Toronto's suburbs, the outter burbs will fall first to the CPC before the inner ones. Look for north shore ridings or St Bruno to go CPC long before this one. The Liberal vote has collapsed pretty much completely in rural Quebec, however the report we have heard said that they we're more or less holding their own in the Montreal region and were still ahead of the CPC.
	07 10 19	C B 72.38.227.236
Another riding which should at the very least be too close to call. The Liberal vote has all but collapsed in the province and the Tories are almost at par with the Bloc. The Conservatives WILL do well in rural Quebec if they maintain their current numbers, and they will start to take some of these suburban Montreal ridings as well. This should be an interesting race, don't be surprised if the Tories take it.
	07 04 06	J.F. Breton 70.81.76.2
Maka Kotto ne devrait pas être trop inquiété ici, parce qu'il s'agit de Maka Kotto. Victoire bloquiste avec une majorité réduite.
	07 04 05	Brian Appel 64.230.127.250
This was my riding for a number of months, and it is not, by nature, a separatist riding. It was held by a Liberal for a number of years(who won quite handily in 1997), so the potential for the Bloc to lose here is there. The ADQ did quite well in the provincial ridings within Saint Lambert, so a Conservative victory isn't out of the question. I actually think that Maka Kotto's re-election here will be based on a vote-split between a resurgent Liberal Party and rising Conservative numbers in Quebec. In the end, after all, Marie-Victorin stayed PQ.