La prévision a changé
2:20 PM 17/04/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Richmond-Arthabaska
élection générale (Canada) - 2007



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
TBA

Député:
André Bellavance

2006 Résultats:
André Bellavance **
24466
Jean Landry
16465
Louis Napoléon Mercier
5294
Isabelle Maguire
2507
Laurier Busque
2355

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats




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08 01 28 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Going into the '06 election, this appeared on the surface to be a certain Tory pickup among the promised many in this region--perhaps a bit because of the Andre Bachand legacy, but also because of the Tory candidate being ex-Bloc MP Jean Landry. Then again, Landry's crazyquilt post-Bloc perennial-candidateness probably worked against him (independent 1997, PC 2000, CPC 2004--and all in Lotbiniere next door). Besides, Andre Bellavance's radical-populist Blocdom (as proven by the the Legion-flag affair in '04) perhaps defuses the need for an ADQ/Duplessiste Tory around these parts; kinda like Cheryl Gallant, it all only makes him more electable...
07 09 09 Nick J Boragina
74.14.16.208
This is a tough riding to call. Rural quebec has always trended towards small l liberalism, but the conservative’s free-market approach appeals to that, but the Liberal’s social liberalism, has always gained more votes. What’s changed is that socially conservative nationalists have come out swinging against the BQ and PQ. They’ve had enough and have put their social conservatism ahead of their nationalism, and have voted ADQ en masse. The question is can the Conservatives capitalize on this new coalition between fiscal libertarians and social conservatism on the nationalist Quebecois scale. That remains to be seen.
07 06 10 binriso
156.34.233.62
This has got to be one of the big targets for the Conservatives in QC. Andre Bachands old riding and the only one to go PC in 2000, it seems like a logical pick up for the new Conservatives although by no means a safe bet yet. It'll be close but i see this one going CPC by a slight margin.
07 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
67.71.57.62
If this were any other province we would be saying a hold for the incumbent. However this is Quebec and as we have seen in recent elections (both federal and provincial) when Quebecers want change, they mean it! This riding did elect and kept electing a PC member, even when his fellow Quebec PC colleagues jumped ship to the Liberals. The CPC had a decent showing in '06 (~32%) and if the could find a moderate local mayor or someone to run on their ticket, they could take it. Especially if ADQ afterglow or CPC strength in near-by Chaudiere or Megantic have any effect, this could topple to the CPC.
07 04 07 Stéphane Gaudet
70.83.98.126
Si les conservateurs devaient arracher des circonscriptions aux bloquistes, ce pourrait être ici. Bellavance n'est pas ici depuis longtemps (2004), la circonscription avait voté progressiste-conservateur en 1997 et 2000, elle est représentée à l'Assemblée nationale par des députés fédéraliste (Vallières, libéral) ou autonomiste (JF Roux, ADQ), un coin ‘bleu foncé’ qui a été longtemps créditiste au fédéral et unioniste (jusqu'en 1981) au provincial, en plein coeur du ‘Québec tranquille’... Bref, tous les ingrédients sont réunis pour une victoire conservatrice.



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