La prévision a changé
11:34 AM 05/04/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
élection générale (Canada) - 2007



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candidats:
TBA

Député:
Jean-Yves Roy

2006 Résultats:
Jean-Yves Roy **
15721
Rodrigue Drapeau
10157
Kim Leclerc
4463
Stéphane Ricard
2116
Sarah Desjardins
910
Yvan Côté
778

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats




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08 02 20 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Maybe it's a matter of ‘edge condition’ or proximity to New Brunswick, but CPC did quite impressively in the seats labelled Gaspé, more so than the ADQ provincially--shades of Saguenay? HGLMMM's the lesser of the two and didn't get the election-night profile because none of it was in the Atlantic time zone--yet the Tories still quietly scored nearly 30% here. If Harper's on track t/w doubling his Quebec seat total, look to seats like this to, if not fall, at least become sleeper close calls...
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
74.13.125.185
It was after reading the comments of bear and ape in this riding that I decided to do some math. I thought they were crazy to put this riding TCTC. Bloc win, I thought. Well, now that I’ve done the math, I’ve swung the other way. I’m going to go out on a limb and declare this a CPC win. Here’s why.
Unless something changes between now and the election – and it could, I’m going to have to place this one in the Conservative column based on Math. I had quite a row with other predictors in the last federal election, when I predicted 10 Tories from Quebec, based on math. They said I was crazy, but on Election day, I was smack on the money. Now I’m calling ridings like this one for the Tories due to the same mathematical equations I used last time. Remember that this is a ‘rural’ riding, and the ADQ recently did very well here. Even with a slight swing from the Bloc to the Tories (in all three recent by-elections the Tories numbers with relation to the Bloc numbers were far up). The math tells me that based on swing forecasting, it would take a 10 point gap (the by-election gap was 4.6) in St.Hyacinthe to make this riding a toss up.
07 04 11 P.P.
70.82.50.99
Cette région est non seulement resté fidèle au P.Q. mais celui-ci a récupéré Matane. Le Bloc conservera ce comté sans problème
07 04 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
67.71.57.131
In 2000 (if we are not mistaken) the Liberals came within recount distance of taking this riding. In the prior election the looked very much like the CPC does now. A decent surge by the CPC or afterglow from the ADQ victory and watch this on flip to the conservatives. Watch and see folks!
07 04 02 Daniel
156.34.85.213
If the Conservatives make gains in Quebec, this riding could be one of their prime targets. The Bloc has traditionally done well here, but from the way the poll numbers look, the Bloc could be in trouble in ridings like this all over Quebec, with the Conservatives being the main beneficiaries.



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