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11:02 AM 28/03/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bloc Québécois
Clément, Maxime
Graham, Peter
Paine, Andrea
New Democratic
Quinn, Daniel
Scarpaleggia, Francis

Francis Scarpaleggia

2006 Résultats:
Francis Scarpaleggia **
Andrea Paine
Daniel Quinn
Anne-Marie Guertin
Peter Graham

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
Even before the ?arts? scandal caused the Conservatives to drop in Quebec, winning a seat in Montreal would have been a challenge for the Conservatives. Even when they were polling well, Quebec analyst Josee Legault said they probably couldn't win in Montreal. With the Conservatives now having lost support in Quebec since the campaign began, and running in 2nd place provincially behind the Liberals, a seat like this is VERY unlikely to go Conservative so I'm surprised to see the prediction below.
08 10 04 EC
Andrea Paine obtained 27% of the vote as a candidate representing an opposition party hammered with the taboo of the hidden agenda. This time round, the government has a credible track record, Dion is generally disliked and West Islanders probably deserve more than being marginalized in opposition again.
La Presse has pegged this riding to swing Blue......The 14th will be nail biter! Comments like ‘circonscription Rouge...toujours rouge’ misses the point of elections....unless you are a cheer leader, of course! Rememeber Outremont!
08 09 03 W Knapp
I am not sure about the Conservative chances here. Francis Scarpalogis, the Liberal is well liked & quite competent. The conservatives must make an effort to relate more to the riding & the population. The local Conservative candidate has a long way to go in order to beat out the Liberal incumbent. I wish her, Andrea Payne, the Conservative candidate much success but I think that the riding will stay Liberal.
08 09 02 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
OH PLEASE! Hasn't the conservatives always hovered around 20% in Montreal? Never the less, 20% of the vote diffused fairly evenly over a region with 18 ridings result in A WHOLE LOTTA NOTHING! Calling ridings like this a CPC pick up is nothing more than pure conservative wishful thinking.
08 08 13
polls are showing the cpc hovering around 20% on the island of montreal, and with most ridings giving the cpc outremont type results there support has to translate to votes SOMEWHERE, I think it will be here. cpc by a hair
08 04 28 Neal Ford
In spite of dissatisfaction in Quebec with Dion, and declining Liberal fortunes in general, The Liberals will have little trouble holding this seat , as things stand now.
Francis Scarpeleggia has proven to be a good constituency man. He's out there at all the community events, and treats people very well when he meets them.
I am familiar with this riding as it constituted the other half of Lachine-Lac-St. Louis, where I ran as a Libertarian in '88. I believe that the Tories were only able to take the seat in '84 because the incumbent Liberal Rod Blaker had decided late not to run again, and a Vancouver businessman named Stan Roberts was parachuted in. Combine that with the Blue Tide, and you had a red riding turn Blue.
Fast forward to '88, The Liberals nominated Victor Drury, and Tory Bob Layton (Jack's dad) was only able to hold on by about 600 votes! Since '93, the riding, minus Lachine and Dorval has delivered overwhelming margins of victory to first Clifford Lincoln, then to Scarpeleggia. This one is staying in the Liberal column, barring a complete Liberal collapse such as 1984, which ain't gonna happen.
08 03 08 A.S.
I have to pinch myself to remind myself that the ‘unassailable’ LSL Liberals fell short of 50% of the vote last time--thanks in part to Andrea Paine leading the most vigorous Tory campaign on the Ile de Montreal. (Yet the votes were spread so evenly that Paine won *no polls whatsoever*--in fact, the only non-Liberal polls were won by the fourth-and-nearly-fifth-place Bloc!) In light of the seat's ambience of Anglophone affluence and the utter lack of other viable non-Liberal options, I can see how the Tories are still eyeing it as a legitimate Montreal beachhead--esp. w/some recent polls showing CPC as high as 22% in Montreal proper. Yet it's hard to shake that 416-ish feeling that high pre/midelection CPC figures will fall short come polling day; so just as Don Valley West or Etobicoke Centre inevitably evade the Tory grip, so shall Lac-Saint-Louis...
07 11 06 binriso
Who says the CPC don’t have any support on Montreal Island? 27% here last time was a very strong result(above provincial average). With the CPC getting about 25% of the vote last time in the province, their Montreal/Laval numbers were probably around 15%. Since Montreal-Laval has about 1/3 of the seats in Quebec, the CPC polled roughly 30% outside of Montreal/Laval. Therefore, if people keep saying about the CPC having no support in Montreal and all that jazz and the entire 25-30% or whatever theyve been polling is completely outside Montreal/Laval, they are wrong. Please take this into account next time anyone mentions a Quebec poll.
However in Lac-St Louis the Liberals will hold by a comfortable margin and close to 50% again.
07 09 20 Nick J Boragina
It’s been said this is the top Tory target in Montreal. I disagree. Historically it may have been a strong target, but the Tory vote is different now then it used to be. There is a much more rural feel to the vote now, and it will be difficult to see which Montreal riding would drop first in favour of the Tories. The Liberals will be able to hold on. However, I find it interesting to note that the Bloc finished not just behind the victorious Liberals, and second place Conservatives, but also behind the NDP, which managed a weak third in this riding. I doubt the Bloc would ever win this riding, even if they polled at above 65% within the province.
07 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Predicting the winner of this riding is not important, we all know it'll be the Liberals. The more interesting question is how much support will the CPC get. A good barometer to measure if and by how much the CPC is begining to resonate with Anglo-Quebecers.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
If the Conservatives were to win a riding on the island of Montreal, this would be it. But whatever gains or losses they have in Quebec, this riding won't be affected. Any gains the Conservatives make in Quebec will be in rural Quebec and areas outside Montreal.
07 03 23 J.F. Breton
Circonscription de tradition libérale qui vote rouge dans des proportions hallucinantes. Un vrai château-fort. Victoire libérale.

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