La prévision a changé
2:22 PM 17/04/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Joliette
élection générale (Canada) - 2007



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
Green
Durette, Annie
Conservative
Lavallée, Sylvie
Bloc Québécois
Paquette, Pierre
New Democratic
Raynault, Francine
Liberal
St-Onge, Suzie

Député:
Pierre A. Paquette

2006 Résultats:
Pierre A. Paquette **
28630
Sylvie Lavallée
14192
Gérard Leclerc
5245
Jacques Trudeau
2745
Jean-François Lévêque
2086

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

07 11 03 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Considering Paquette's status within the Bloc party, a Tory prediction here would presuppose something along the lines of CPC doing to BQ what Mulroney did to the Liberals in 1984--maybe not impossible; but the current-trends alibi sure beats using the legacy of Roch LaSalle as an argument for 'natural Tory support' hereabouts...
07 11 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
76.64.122.183
We applaud the criticism of our 2006 Quebec predictions, we were off the mark. We figured 4-6 seats for the Conservatives was realistic. However considering that Dr. Bear is from Quebec, that most of his family is still in Quebec and that he actually voted in the Quebec election in March, it's a little absurd to suggest that we're unaware of the current political climate. So why was our predictions a little short? We failed to take into account Quebecer's tendency to vote emotionally. We applied the caution that Ontarians (as well as voters in other provinces) would use when facing the political unknown. That was a mistake and this time we're rectifying that. That doesn't mean we're going to be wreckless in our predictions either. This may not be entirely obvious, so let's spell it out. Off of the islands of Montreal and Laval, there are 53 ridings. We are currently predicting 19 for the BQ, 13 for the CPC, 1 for the Liberals and 20 TCTC. Of those twenty, the Liberals have a shot in one or two (if lucky), the rest are between the BQ and the CPC, all of them currently BQ seats. Why are we not commiting to any definitive predictions? Beacuse we are not in an election race yet and much can (and will) change between now and then. When there is precident to call a seat one way or the other, we will. Now back to Joliette. CB, you state in your second post, 'As I said, this is NOT a slam dunk for the Conservatives..'. That is not what you said in your first post, rather you said, '...the Tories should have no problem capturing it if their polling numbers hold.'. This sounds very definitive, hence our criticism. The thing is, this is not like other neighbouring ridings, where the CPC have excellent chances (and a CPC prediction would not have recieved our scorn). Paquette is a BQ stalwart in a riding that is very much seperatist. Compared to the BQ newbies in neighbouring St Maurice, Trois Riviere and Berthier (all of which are softer to the seperatists question), it is going to be a much harder target for the CPC to win over. It will be closer, but expect Paquette to hold this by at least 5000 votes.
07 10 31 C B
72.38.227.236
With all due respect to Bear and Ape, their predictions in Quebec in 06 were quite a ways off from reality. If I were predicting a Conservative win in Repentigny or Vercheres, or in any Montreal riding, their comments would be completely warranted. As I said, this is NOT a slam dunk for the Conservatives, however this riding is very typical of one that they would win if their polling numbers remain constant or increase. I don't think they understand how much politics have changed in Quebec in the last several years and I think they are being a little ‘conservative’ in their predictions once more.
07 10 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
204.187.16.106
Okay, hold on a moment. Yeah the CPC is tied (more or less) with the BQ in rural Quebec, but Joliette is known to go against the tide. Not to mention that Pierre Paquette is VERY popular and one of the big-wigs of the BQ. He has been named as a possible sucessor to Duceppe. It is highly unlikely that he'd get turfed unless the CPC surpasses the BQ in Quebec (as a whole not just rural Quebec) and/or they find a very big name to run in this riding. We get the impression that the CPC supporters are getting a little starry-eyed and are seeing victories everywhere in Quebec, hoping to pull off what the ADQ did earlier this year.
07 10 20 C B
72.38.227.236
Tory numbers are almost equal to that of the Bloc now in Quebec. Keep in mind that these numbers INCLUDE Montreal, so it stands to reason that they are actually ahead of the Bloc in much of rural Quebec. The by-election results from Roberval are a good indication that this is true. This riding should be too close to call and the Tories should have no problem capturing it if their polling numbers hold.
07 04 24 RDG
65.92.16.184
Je crois que ce sera une lutte à trois. Tout dépendra du contexte. Contrairement à ce que prétend l'un des intervenants, Paquette n'est pas si apprécié dans le comté puisqu'il est absent. Compétent mais absent. La candidate conservatrice vient de St-Lambert et si c'est Dr Kouz, je ne suis pas certain que la région soit prête à élire un musulman. Pour les libéraux ce sera dur, mais il paraît qu'ils auront un jeune candidat du nom de Bellerose qu'on qualifie de debatter. Avec ce qu'il s'est produit aux dernières élections provinciales, qui sait ? D'autant plus que le BQ n'a plus sa raison d'être. Ce n'est pas moi qui le dit, ce sont des membres du PQ !
07 04 22 Jacques Laliberté
69.157.174.180
Paquette apprécié ? Il est compétent, mais aussi absent ! Il n'est même pas natif du comté. Je crois que les conservateurs pourraient chauffer le BQ cette fois-ci. De plus, le candidat libéral qui serait choisi, M. Pierre-Luc Bellerose de Saint-Michel-des-Saints, sans être élu, pourrait mêler les cartes. Son père est maire et ils sont populistes ces deux-là. Le seul inconvénient pour les conservateurs c'est leur candidate qui est de l'extérieur et qui n'est pas connue. Si c'est Kouz, ce sera encore pire. Un Arabe en région ! OUF ! Très dur à prédire. Tout dépendra du moment où les élections seront déclenchées. Le BQ pourrait conserver, voire gagner des sièges tout comme il pourrait être pratiquement éliminé de la carte. Au Québec, tout est possible. On l'a vu lors de la dernière élection. Moi je vais voter libéral et j'espère une lutte à trois.
07 04 10 J.F. Breton
132.204.214.65
Je ne crois pas que Pierre A. Paquette soit en danger dans Joliette, malgré la poussée adéquiste au provincial. Il jouit d'une très confortable majorité et il est un député apprécié et compétent.



Soumettez l'information ici

Actualité provinciale
2006 - élection générale
Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster