08 02 13	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Perhaps because it came about as a quasi-merger, Mad-Res has had the most puzzling tripping-over-itself recent history among New Brunswick ridings: a Charest PC pickup in '97, then a slightly surprising (relative to other retentions that year) PC loss in '00, then the NDP coming out of left field into second place and looking like a potential contender in '04, then CPC roaring back to a near-upset in '06, a Grit-incumbent coup d'etat along the way...had Bernie Valcourt ran again, it might have been the most clearly foretold outcome here since, well...he last held federal office, maybe...
	07 11 25	Daniel 156.34.74.171
It's true that the riding of Madawaska-Victoria was strongly Liberal, with the exception of Bernard Valcourt's victory in the Tory landslide of 1984 and narrow re-election in 1988 based on his personal popularity (though his narrow loss in the 1993 collapse is notable). However, if we look even further back in history, the predecessor to THAT riding (which was interestingly called 'Restigouche-Madawaska', overlapping most of the current incarnation), we can see that it was a swing riding which frequently flipped from the Liberals to the Tories, with vote tallies not unlike those seen in here in 2006. And to add to the previous contributor's comment of 'Conservatives who might have thought it was a lost cause last time might turn out to vote this time' - I don't think that's entirely the case, although another phenomenon might come into play: based on what I've heard over the past few years, Jean-Claude D'Amours hasn't exactly been a beloved constituency man, and it's possible that some 'anti-D'Amours' votes went NDP last time based on the rumours that the NDP had a shot at unseating him. Not that I expect the NDP vote to collapse into the Conservatives here in the next election, but the NDP won't be campaigning nearly as heavily here in this election as they did in 2006 (their targetting of this seat was almost solely based on their reasonable second-place showing in 2004 and a foolhearty hope that this riding was an ‘Acadie-Bathurst’ in the making). A diminished presence by the NDP could give the Conservatives a bit more wiggle room. (Also, just to justify my earlier emphatic prediction, had Valcourt been the candidate, he WOULD have won, hands down. In over 20 years of being in politics, federally and provincially, the man only ever lost once; and even then, it was by a minuscule margin in an election that saw the destruction of his party on a national scale.) And my apologies to Nick for adding another Conservative prediction to the page.
	07 11 10	Jeff 156.34.23.43
The old Madawaska-Victoria riding of the 70s and 80s was a hard Liberal riding, but Madawaska-Restigouche has had some pretty funny voting patterns since it was created. It was even a target for the NDP last time, based on the 2004 results here. I don't think a lot of people saw the Conservatives coming in the last election, and their strong second place finish was a big surprise. Now that the voters know that voting Conservative isn't a lost cause in this riding, it might motivate Tories who would otherwise have stayed home to get out and vote. Even with Ouelette being the candidate again, I think this is the best chance for a Conservative pickup east of Quebec.
	07 10 01	Nick J Boragina 74.14.23.192
2 posters making 4 CPC predictions. Unfortunately I feel they are wrong. The CPC would need a very strong candidate in this riding to capitalize on the base of support they have here. The problem is that the current candidate is not him. I did not see the surge coming here last time, but I still don’t see that surge as being strong enough to knock off the Liberal. This could be one call I’ll be scrambling to change as e-day draw’s near, but for now, I’m placing this one in the Liberal column.
	07 06 13	binriso 156.34.220.155
Well even though Valcourt got 45.7% in 1993 he still lost. Also, According to Wikipedia, JP Ouellette is the candidate again, which definitely hurts their chances slightly.
	07 06 07	binriso 156.34.223.78
Well this is certainly not 1995 and this isn?t the PC's were talking about its the CPC a much more further right party. Don?t expect a big landslide with Valcourt running for them here just cause of himself, although i would give them a bit of an advantage over the Libs for right now. TCTC for now, advantage Valcourt, but it can go both ways easily. NDP could play a factor since they do decently well here.
	07 04 18	Political Junkie 156.34.217.237
This is the Tories' best hope of a pick-up in New Brunswick. With the news that former Mulroney cabinet minister and NB PC leader Bernard Valcourt intends to run for the Tory nomination here, the chance of Madawaska-Restigouche going blue is very high indeed. When Valcourt ran in the 1993 federal election in the now defunct riding of Madawaska-Victoria, he got the second best result for the PC Party in Canada, and lost by only 3.1%. Considering that this result was achieved during the PC meltdown of 1993, it is even more impressive. When he lead the NB PCs in the 1995 provincial election, and ran in Madawaska County, he had coattails that elected PC MLAs in all of Madawaska County, in an election when the McKenna Liberals won a massive majority. It is therefore apparent that Valcourt has a personal appeal that transcends party loyalties. With Conservative fortunes improving across Canada and the close win for the Tories here last time, things look very good for the Conservatives here indeed. If Valcourt wins the nomination, then put this one in the Conservative column. If someone else takes it, it is still up for grabs.
	07 04 17	Daniel 156.34.82.19
Valcourt is running? That means the Tories have pretty much just been handed this riding; Valcourt is extremely popular in the area, and even if he can't win the Restigouche polls, he'll win the Madawaska ones by absolutely ridiculous margins. If a washed-up, controversial former provincial cabinet minister could almost win this last time for the Tories, then Valcourt, who is a popular former PC party leader (and MP), should have little trouble. Heck, even if Harper loses the next election, Valcourt still has a strong chance of being elected. Not to mention that incumbent MP Jean-Claude D'Amours has often been referred to as a ?lightweight? by local media...
	07 04 16	RF 74.120.155.163
It has just been announced that Bernard Valcourt is seeking the Conservative nomination. This has taken it from, ‘The Conservatives will probably win’ to ‘The Conservatives will definitely win.’
	07 04 02	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
Its too early to tell. The Conservatives are quite strong in Madawaska, but weak in Restigouche, so a lot depends on their margins in each area. If they can get a strong candidate such as Bernard Valcourt or the current NB PC leader, they should take this, but if they have a weak one, the Liberals should hold this.
	07 03 29	RF 74.120.155.163
With the Tories doing much better in francophone ridings that aren't in Quebec (see Eastern Ontario, Saint Boniface), this riding is not out of reach. Bernard Lord's Tories will also be working hard in this riding, especially with the possibility of Lord running in Moncton still a possibility. This riding was a very close result last time, and the incumbent is not a strong one. This was the Tories closest finish in the province, beating the conventional wisdom that Fredericton and Saint John would be closer. This riding will be high on the target list, and will most likely be picked up by the Tories.
	07 03 24	Daniel 156.34.66.131
This riding is perhaps the most unpredictable in NB; last election, the Conservatives came out of nowhere to almost win this riding, when they had finished 3rd in the previous election. I'd say TCTC, but rumour has it that popular provincial MLA Madeleine Dube may be the Conservative candidate; given that she won her riding by the largest margin of any riding in the last NB provincial election, despite the fact that her party was voted out of office, and I'd say she would put the riding in Tory hands quite easily.