Prediction Changed
10:31 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Arpin, André
D'Amours, Jean-Claude JC
Ouellet, Jean-Pierre
New Democratic
Tremblay-Philippe, Thérèse

Jean-Claude J. C. D'Amours

2006 Result:
Jean-Claude J. C. D'Amours **
Jean-Pierre Ouellet
Rodolphe Martin
Irka Laplante

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 09 JaneyC
The TJ info was really wrong. Every poll here says it is too close to call and the article did not really refer to Madawaska Restigouche per se. I was surprised by that article given that it flaunts every bit of conventional wisdom here - and I would not the newspaper does not even have a reporter here and the local media all suggest a close three way race. One day it is NDP, next Conservative. One poll had the Liberals quite a bit behind but then another 2 wks ago had the NDP in that position.
One issue that favours the NDP is the fact its candidate comes from Restigouche and that part of the riding has felt disenfranchised since the creation of the new boundaries. And now there are two ' Lib and Cons candidates from Madawaska - neither of whom are 100% supported by their parties. (Oh you will not hear that publicly but talk to members of the parties...) Also, there is a much higher voter turnout in Restigouche, 66.6% the last time in Dalhousie alone (60% or so in Campbellton), just 50% in Edmunston (Madawaska) so imagine when a woman represents the NDP from Restigouche - my guess is the NDP vote and the voter turnout together will increase!
08 10 08 Mr. Mac
Once again, I feel the need to correct the poster before me and say that in the telegraph article, it said ?Nearly one-third of voters are still undecided.? That is a large chunk and could still have a great impact in this riding. However, the Conservatives are really edging towards victory because they are running the same candidate as the last election. While still slightly TCTC, give the edge to the Conservatives.
08 10 07
According to the most recent polls for New Brunswick (see: ) The CPC is 10% points ahead of the Liberals. At these numbers, seats such as Madawaska-Restigouche will shift to the CPC. Just look at how close this race was last time. It is easily conceivable that this riding will go CPC.
08 10 05 Janey
I have to go back from Liberal to too close to call. I too have read those extrapolations and they use current trends and assume that all things being equal, a party might win or lose a seat. (I used to teach stats, sigh!) The same site now has the Libs ahead by about 2000 votes but all election it has been back and forth and my guess is there was some parking of votes. Now that Election day nears (and the Advance polls here had people waiting an avg of 60-90 minutes to vote and that was ALL day so that to me says it is still too close to call.
In Restigouche, there are as many NDP signs as there are Lib and Cons. Madawaska is different but they will divide the vote between the two candidates from Madawaska. It is essential to note the NDP candidate - who performed above expectations in the local debate (even Cons organizers thought she did well) - comes from Restigouche, which has more NDP votes and feels alienated from the riding. So, if the Madawaska area candidates split the vote in that section of the riding and some vote NDP there and she gets many votes in Restigouche (there has not been a Restigouche candidate for two elections and many voters merely parked votes until there was one, regardless of party.)
The Cons candidate did not look good in the debate (He kept interrupting M. D'Amours) instead of politely pointing out his own platform if one can call it that.) He also has lived in Quebec for many yrs while both the other two candidates have been here much longer. Still, the Cons organization in one part of Restigouche and Madawaska is strong and the NDP may have trouble getting out the vote. So, while I would say it is leaning Liberal, it ifs again TCTC.
08 10 04
Eccles - Just to clarify, the number you reference at the environment vote site isn't a poll --- it is their effort to take the results of the last election and extrapolate what the vote would be based on the latest national polls (similar to the Hill and Knowlton election projections).
The circumstances here are hard to call -- certainly the Liberals fall in the polls should hurt D'Amours chances for re-election after a close call in 2006, but the Conservative brand in the Maritimes is pretty damaged. Last time 2 times out the NDP put resources behind Martin last time out - which didn't work out as they hoped - it isn't clear that their new candidate will fare any better, but with Layton's debate performances, perhaps she'll break through.
My gut tells me that in the end the Liberal vote will fall enough and the NDP won't rise enough to allow win, but will produce a narrow Conservative victory. But any one of the three could end up taking it.
08 10 02 Eccles
This is odd--the poll data published at shows Madawaska-Restigouche as a really tight three-way race with the NDP candidate in the lead.
08 09 20 Janey Canuck
The Tories (if I can call them that) need one of the prominent provincial MLA's if they are serous about this riding. The Tory candidate - Ouellet - has had publicly reported legal troubles and while neither he nor D'Amours may be beloved in Madawaska, in Restigouche they are unknown by 80% of the population.
The Dalhousie mill was closed and that should have been a key indicator to the NDP to run a candidate FROM the Restiguche area. What I never understand about this riding is that given that the two candidates from the Liberal and Conservative parties are from Madawaska, an NDP candidate from the Restiguche region- with all its economic difficulties, has the possibility to make this a three way race! Remember they DID come second not the last time but the previous.
So, now it is the Liberals to loose.
08 02 13 A.S.
Perhaps because it came about as a quasi-merger, Mad-Res has had the most puzzling tripping-over-itself recent history among New Brunswick ridings: a Charest PC pickup in '97, then a slightly surprising (relative to other retentions that year) PC loss in '00, then the NDP coming out of left field into second place and looking like a potential contender in '04, then CPC roaring back to a near-upset in '06, a Grit-incumbent coup d'etat along the way...had Bernie Valcourt ran again, it might have been the most clearly foretold outcome here since, well...he last held federal office, maybe...
07 11 25 Daniel
It's true that the riding of Madawaska-Victoria was strongly Liberal, with the exception of Bernard Valcourt's victory in the Tory landslide of 1984 and narrow re-election in 1988 based on his personal popularity (though his narrow loss in the 1993 collapse is notable). However, if we look even further back in history, the predecessor to THAT riding (which was interestingly called 'Restigouche-Madawaska', overlapping most of the current incarnation), we can see that it was a swing riding which frequently flipped from the Liberals to the Tories, with vote tallies not unlike those seen in here in 2006.
And to add to the previous contributor's comment of 'Conservatives who might have thought it was a lost cause last time might turn out to vote this time' - I don't think that's entirely the case, although another phenomenon might come into play: based on what I've heard over the past few years, Jean-Claude D'Amours hasn't exactly been a beloved constituency man, and it's possible that some 'anti-D'Amours' votes went NDP last time based on the rumours that the NDP had a shot at unseating him. Not that I expect the NDP vote to collapse into the Conservatives here in the next election, but the NDP won't be campaigning nearly as heavily here in this election as they did in 2006 (their targetting of this seat was almost solely based on their reasonable second-place showing in 2004 and a foolhearty hope that this riding was an ‘Acadie-Bathurst’ in the making). A diminished presence by the NDP could give the Conservatives a bit more wiggle room.
(Also, just to justify my earlier emphatic prediction, had Valcourt been the candidate, he WOULD have won, hands down. In over 20 years of being in politics, federally and provincially, the man only ever lost once; and even then, it was by a minuscule margin in an election that saw the destruction of his party on a national scale.)
And my apologies to Nick for adding another Conservative prediction to the page.
07 11 10 Jeff
The old Madawaska-Victoria riding of the 70s and 80s was a hard Liberal riding, but Madawaska-Restigouche has had some pretty funny voting patterns since it was created. It was even a target for the NDP last time, based on the 2004 results here. I don't think a lot of people saw the Conservatives coming in the last election, and their strong second place finish was a big surprise. Now that the voters know that voting Conservative isn't a lost cause in this riding, it might motivate Tories who would otherwise have stayed home to get out and vote. Even with Ouelette being the candidate again, I think this is the best chance for a Conservative pickup east of Quebec.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
2 posters making 4 CPC predictions. Unfortunately I feel they are wrong. The CPC would need a very strong candidate in this riding to capitalize on the base of support they have here. The problem is that the current candidate is not him. I did not see the surge coming here last time, but I still don’t see that surge as being strong enough to knock off the Liberal. This could be one call I’ll be scrambling to change as e-day draw’s near, but for now, I’m placing this one in the Liberal column.
07 06 13 binriso
Well even though Valcourt got 45.7% in 1993 he still lost. Also, According to Wikipedia, JP Ouellette is the candidate again, which definitely hurts their chances slightly.
07 06 07 binriso
Well this is certainly not 1995 and this isn?t the PC's were talking about its the CPC a much more further right party. Don?t expect a big landslide with Valcourt running for them here just cause of himself, although i would give them a bit of an advantage over the Libs for right now. TCTC for now, advantage Valcourt, but it can go both ways easily. NDP could play a factor since they do decently well here.
07 04 18 Political Junkie
This is the Tories' best hope of a pick-up in New Brunswick. With the news that former Mulroney cabinet minister and NB PC leader Bernard Valcourt intends to run for the Tory nomination here, the chance of Madawaska-Restigouche going blue is very high indeed. When Valcourt ran in the 1993 federal election in the now defunct riding of Madawaska-Victoria, he got the second best result for the PC Party in Canada, and lost by only 3.1%. Considering that this result was achieved during the PC meltdown of 1993, it is even more impressive. When he lead the NB PCs in the 1995 provincial election, and ran in Madawaska County, he had coattails that elected PC MLAs in all of Madawaska County, in an election when the McKenna Liberals won a massive majority. It is therefore apparent that Valcourt has a personal appeal that transcends party loyalties. With Conservative fortunes improving across Canada and the close win for the Tories here last time, things look very good for the Conservatives here indeed. If Valcourt wins the nomination, then put this one in the Conservative column. If someone else takes it, it is still up for grabs.
07 04 17 Daniel
Valcourt is running? That means the Tories have pretty much just been handed this riding; Valcourt is extremely popular in the area, and even if he can't win the Restigouche polls, he'll win the Madawaska ones by absolutely ridiculous margins. If a washed-up, controversial former provincial cabinet minister could almost win this last time for the Tories, then Valcourt, who is a popular former PC party leader (and MP), should have little trouble. Heck, even if Harper loses the next election, Valcourt still has a strong chance of being elected. Not to mention that incumbent MP Jean-Claude D'Amours has often been referred to as a ?lightweight? by local media...
07 04 16 RF
It has just been announced that Bernard Valcourt is seeking the Conservative nomination. This has taken it from, ‘The Conservatives will probably win’ to ‘The Conservatives will definitely win.’
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Its too early to tell. The Conservatives are quite strong in Madawaska, but weak in Restigouche, so a lot depends on their margins in each area. If they can get a strong candidate such as Bernard Valcourt or the current NB PC leader, they should take this, but if they have a weak one, the Liberals should hold this.
07 03 29 RF
With the Tories doing much better in francophone ridings that aren't in Quebec (see Eastern Ontario, Saint Boniface), this riding is not out of reach. Bernard Lord's Tories will also be working hard in this riding, especially with the possibility of Lord running in Moncton still a possibility.
This riding was a very close result last time, and the incumbent is not a strong one. This was the Tories closest finish in the province, beating the conventional wisdom that Fredericton and Saint John would be closer. This riding will be high on the target list, and will most likely be picked up by the Tories.
07 03 24 Daniel
This riding is perhaps the most unpredictable in NB; last election, the Conservatives came out of nowhere to almost win this riding, when they had finished 3rd in the previous election. I'd say TCTC, but rumour has it that popular provincial MLA Madeleine Dube may be the Conservative candidate; given that she won her riding by the largest margin of any riding in the last NB provincial election, despite the fact that her party was voted out of office, and I'd say she would put the riding in Tory hands quite easily.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster