Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

West Nova
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Robert Thibault

2006 Result:
Robert Thibault **
17734
Greg Kerr
17222
Arthur Bull
8512
Matthew Granger
1040
Ken Griffiths
682

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 01 R.O.
66.186.79.11
One of the more interesting races in Nova Scotia, and also one of the closest races. Robert Thibault liberal mp has his work cut out for him as he is facing former pc mla Greg Kerr again. But this is the east coast and these ridings have harder for the new conservative party to win then then were for the pc’s. my guess is this mp would be very safe if he were running in a city like Halifax , what makes it close is the riding.
but its still a very close race and one we won’t be able to call until an actual election and until we know how the race is playing out.
08 02 20 A.S.
99.233.96.153
This used to be one of the most dependable ridings to never re-elect a sitting member in the country--either as a Grit/Tory teeter-totter, or (as in 1993) as an incumbent's baton-pass--yet Robert Thibault has succeeded in being re-elected twice, presumably less because of his erstwhile cabinet credentials than because of CPC not being PC enough. Yet...despite this seat having a stronger long-term Liberal history, Thibault is still less safe than Scott Brison. Maybe because, with its mix of Acadianism and past Reform strength, it's the most ‘New Brunswickian’ of Nova Scotia's seats, the CPC bug here remains curiously robust--I mean, it'd still take a remarkable pro-Harper NS swing to secure this one, but somehow, I'm still reluctant to hand West Nova to the Liberals unquestioningly...
08 01 14
209.202.78.177
It was only close because Greg Kerr is a big name. Thibault will have no problems.
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
Nova Scotia is not as angry at the federal government as Newfoundland is. This is partly due to the actions of their respective premiers. It is important to note that in the 1997 election Nova Scotia want from 11 sitting Liberal MP’s, to no sitting Liberals. Even Alberta elected Liberals in 97. Nova Scotia can be quite cruel to parties that don’t treat it right. While it would be worth debating if the Tories will lose seats, what is known is they wont win any new ones.
07 06 19 binriso
156.34.217.85
This has got to be an easy win now for the Liberals. CPC came close last time but i cant see them being that close this time and will probably drop a few % which will mostly go straight to the Liberal Party. It points to a solid Liberal win here.
07 06 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
74.12.178.183
With the current aggressive attitude coming from the Prime & Finance Ministers pertaining to the Atlantic Accords and the budget, there is no way the CPC will be making any gains in Atlantic Canada (maybe one in the French-speaking parts of NB if lucky). It's far more likely that MacKay is the sole Tory survivor or a total wash-out of the CPC happens before they pick up in NS. We don't think that this should be changed from TCTC just yet as the election is God-knows-when, however if we're going to call it now we say CPC has no chance.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
64.230.127.250
Atlantic Canada is usually the last part of Canada to change their opinion on things. Case in point, the 2006 election. The relatively stagnant poll numbers in Atlantic Canada, combined with a lukewarm view of Premier MacDonald, make me prepared to call this seat as a hold - albeit a close one - for Thibault.
07 03 28 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Interesting one to watch. Thibault only won by 500 votes and ironically enough only won in one of the four counties (won in Digby, but lost Annapolis, Kings, and Yarmouth), however with the budget being bad news for Nova Scotia he is probably in better shape right now. The real question is will the budget still be big news by election day. If it is, he should have no trouble being re-elected. If it is not, he could be in trouble.



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